The escalation towards a nuclear outcome in the Middle East is unfolding

Recent events regarding the hostages held by the terrorist group Hamas seem to mark a turning point in the Israeli public’s perception of what the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) must do moving forward: to definitively eradicate Hamas and relocate the entire population of Gaza far from Israel’s borders, in order to prevent a repeat of the events of October 7th and those that have unfolded since then.

As long as Hamas exists, every Israeli, whether military or civilian, will remain exposed to constant threats that endanger their physical integrity, whether in the streets of Israel or in their own homes. Therefore, eliminating Hamas is crucial to the survival of every Israeli citizen.

However, eradicating Hamas would only sever a branch of a vast tree, whose deep roots spread throughout the Middle East and beyond, nurturing ideologies that call for the destruction of Israel and the death of every Jew, not only within its borders but around the globe.

Jews possess the undeniable right to have a nation, a government, and an army capable of defending them against the historical antisemitism that has persisted for millennia and continues to spread and strengthen in the Arab world and beyond. We must never forget how Europe failed to protect six million Jews from the grasp of Adolf Hitler.

In this context, the Palestinian cause has become a more politically acceptable banner than the Nazi ideology, which from its inception fostered a hatred similar to that which still threatens the Jewish people today.

The historical and archaeological connection that Jews have with the Holy Land cannot be overlooked, a territory named as such because it is the cradle of the three principal monotheistic religions of the world, with Judaism being the first of them.

Despite its small size, barely exceeding 22,000 km², compared to the 13.3 million km² of the 23 Arab countries (excluding Iran, as it is not a member of the Arab League), Israel has managed to survive several existential wars against military coalitions formed by some of those countries, including the Israeli War of Independence (1948-1949), the Six-Day War (1967), and the Yom Kippur War (1973). In addition, there have been the Suez Canal Crisis (1956), the Lebanese Intervention (1982), the Intifadas (1987-1993, 2000-2005), the wars in Gaza (2008-2009, 2012, 2014, 2023-present), the recent war against Hezbollah, and the recent attacks from Iran and the Houthis in Yemen. Israel has not only survived all of these conflicts but has, in most cases, achieved decisive victories in several of them.

This minuscule piece of land have served as a stronghold for the Jewish population since the founding of the State of Israel on 14 May 1948. And if Israel ever reaches the conclusion that its territorial integrity, or its very existence, is at risk, it will not hesitate to use its nuclear weapons against one or several nations in a future Arab coalition, following the nuclear doctrines of the nine current nuclear powers.

The difference, however, is that in this case, there would be no possibility of Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) as in the case of the United States and Russia, since Israel is, for now, the only country in the Middle East with nuclear weapons.

The wars waged by Arab nations against Israel have not been territorial in nature; their primary objective has been the total destruction of a country, a people, and a culture, rather than the creation of a Palestinian state that coexists peacefully alongside a Jewish state.

This notion is simply not viable. External supporters of this political project seem to remain oblivious to the history, culture, and idiosyncrasies of the key actors in the Arab-Israeli conflict.

Will the Palestinians and their allies cease proclaiming the phrase “From the river to the sea,” or will Iran halt its uranium enrichment and back down from its aim to destroy the state of Israel once a Palestinian state is established alongside the Jewish state? Will the Arab League nations recognise Israel’s right to exist with Jerusalem as its capital and acknowledge its importance for sustainable, peaceful development across the Middle East?

On Sunday, 23 February 2025, tens of thousands of Hezbollah supporters gathered in Beirut to pay tribute to Hassan Nasrallah, chanting slogans such as “Death to Israel” in unison, while Israeli jets flew overhead, displaying a clear demonstration of military might.

In this context of rising tension, coupled with Trump’s plan to relocate all of Gaza (excluding Hamas) within the 13 million square kilometres of Arab land, diplomatic relations between Israel and several Arab nations, such as Egypt, Jordan, Libya, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), have deteriorated alarmingly.

Specifically, Egypt, the leading military power in the Arab world and ranked 15th globally, has significantly increased its military presence in the Sinai in recent weeks, representing a violation of the peace agreement with Israel signed in 1979.

The 21st century has witnessed a remarkable technological evolution in the field of military weaponry. The development of drones and autonomous vehicles, directed energy weapons (DEWs), precision-guided munitions (PGMs), artificial intelligence (AI), and ballistic missiles has laid the groundwork for future wars, both in the short and medium to long term.

These technological advancements have been adopted, to varying degrees, by the militaries of major global powers, including Egypt.

Among the threats Israel could face in the event of a full-scale conflict with neighbouring Arab nations and regional terrorist groups are Hamas’ tunnel network, Hezbollah’s missiles, the new Etemad ballistic missiles or “Trust” in Persian, capable of reaching Israeli territory, and the Houthis’ hypersonic missiles, among others.

The next Arab coalition against Israel will not resemble those of 1948, 1967, or 1973. This coalition will be broader, due to the inclusion of new actors, and will possess more advanced, powerful, precise, and therefore more lethal military weaponry. In such a scenario, Israel’s defences could be threatened by a surprise, massive, and well-coordinated attack from its enemies, jeopardising its territorial integrity.

In a situation of this magnitude, Israel may be forced to respond to the offensive of this coalition with the use, at least limited, of nuclear weapons, targeting military or even civilian objectives in the most extreme case.

It would not be the first time. The United States forced Japan’s surrender through two detonations of 15 and 21 kilotons in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, respectively.

The nuclear bomb is the ultimate weapon of mass destruction. There is no living being on the planet capable of surviving the 100 million degrees Celsius (4 to 5 times hotter than the centre of the sun) at ground zero of a 1-megaton nuclear explosion.

Arab countries considering forming a large coalition against Israel in the future must understand that the nuclear option is on the table for the Jewish state. Israel is not a signatory of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and, for security reasons, maintains a policy of nuclear ambiguity, meaning it neither confirms nor denies officially possessing nuclear weapons, though it is estimated to have between 90 and 400 such weapons.

The leaders of these countries must prepare their populations for the possibility of a nuclear attack by Israel. Just as Samson brought down the pillars of the temple of Dagon to turn it into rubble, at the cost of his own life, Israel could do the same or something similar in an extreme scenario using nuclear weapons.

On the other hand, Israel would have to prepare its population for the possibility of a fallout if it ever becomes necessary to detonate a nuclear bomb against a military target near its borders.

Such a decision could force the Arab coalition to surrender and sign a peace treaty, as happened after World War II between the United States and Japan, or, in the worst case, trigger an even greater escalation in which other nuclear powers could be dragged into the conflict, severely jeopardising global stability.

The drums of a new regional war in the Middle East are already resounding. Once the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas ends, a new chapter in the struggle for the Holy Land will begin, the outcome of which will be hard to predict.