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Moshe-Mordechai van Zuiden
Psychology, Medicine, Science, Politics, Oppression, Integrity, Philosophy, Jews -- For those who like their news and truths frank and sharp

The first day of the Third Israel-Lebanon War in historic context

You don’t need to be a rocket scientist to follow what’s going on

It’s not so complicated.

Background

Though Southern Lebanon is part of Biblically Israel, the modern Jewish State has never put up a claim to annex it, not even the fundamentalists.

Most of the Lebanese never had any trouble with Jews, just like the People of Iran, and very differently from the populations surrounding the rest of Israel in Jordan, Egypt (and Gaza) that are over 99% hostile to Jews.

Unfortunately, the Iranian junta and its proxies, Chezbollah and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, have taken over modern, democratic Lebanon. You can just imagine the hatred for the occupying terrorists, which explains the excellent intelligence contacts Israel has built there in the past decades.

Pre-War

After the Second Israel-Lebanon War, the parties agreed that Southern Lebanon would be demilitarized. No Israeli thought they would honor that, and they didn’t. The United Nations would keep the peace by patrolling the border, and no one today can still believe they would protect Israel.

Chezbollah installed between 150,000 and 200,000 rockets and missiles, all trained on Israel, many in underground silos and in houses, schools, etc.

The problem with them violating the demilitarized zone was that if they fired from close by, we would have no time, literally, to seek shelter.

When Chezbollah violated international law preparing for genocide on Israel, where were all the countries complaining now Israel defends itself?

Bluff

Chamas in Gaza had assumed that Chezbollah would start attacking Israel in its footsteps in solidarity, but it didn’t.

One night, Iran sent Israel an army of rockets and missiles, but Israel, with the Biden-assembled Allied forces (including Jordan), plucked them out of the air, and less than a handful hit Israeli ground. Which didn’t stop the Iranian dictators from congratulating themselves on a ‘devastating blow.’

Reminds me of Saddam Chussein bragging about having weapons of mass destruction. His false claim was the West’s excuse for war and killing him.

Popular ‘wisdom’ held that Chezbollah could end Israel. Israel knew better.

After the Chamas pogrom, the IDF claimed to be ready, defensively and offensively, to handle any Chezbollah threat. And, of course, the terrorists thought this must be a hollow threat, just like they always make. It wasn’t.

Fighting

Most of Israel’s citizens had left the North awaiting Chezbollah’s war crime attempts, targeting civilians by projectile and tunnel, heartened by Oct 7.

Chezbollah did attack piecemeal. Israel would take care of it after Chamas. But also at the first day of the War, sending a fleet of rockets, Chezbollah showed some sort of restraint not (yet) targeting the larger cities.

After the failed Iranian assault came Israel’s precision attacks on Chezbollah leaders. Then Chezbollah tried to retaliate, but when it opened a hundred missile silos to launch a thousand projectiles, the Israeli Air Force bombed them to smithereens within half an hour. Then came—allegedly—Israel exploding their beepers and walkie-talkies. It killed dozens of terrorists, blinded 500, and otherwise wounded thousands, with hardly any collateral damage. That not only diminished Chezbollah’s prestige and readiness but also hinders their communication since cell phones were already banned because Israel could use them to trace them. And since then, whenever they open silos, Israel bombs them. And then, it started bombing missiles hidden in houses after warning the population to get out of harm’s way.

On the first day of the War, Israel bombed 1600 terror targets, sparing civilians, while Chezbollah managed to send 300 projectiles over the border. Because Israel invests in protection of its citizens, no Israeli died.

Lebanon took a leaf from the Gaza war propaganda and already started with reporting the ‘number of dead and wounded’ from the first day of war without specifying they are almost all terrorists.

Future

Notoriously, predictions are hard, especially concerning the future.

Don’t take any pessimistic analysis too seriously. Jews are a sturdy people with zest and lust for life. We hold the world title in survival.

I pray that our pilots will be safe and Israel won’t need to send in ground troops. Why should our soldiers risk their lives to fight international terror?

Will Israel settle for beating Chezbollah out of Southern Lebanon, or will it go all the way, together with the Lebanese, to drive out all of Chezbollah? If Gaza has taught anything, peace is seldom won by half-measures.

Will Iran join the fighting directly? Most unlikely. It probably will weaponize Yemen’s Chouthis to join in. Israel’s Allies will have no trouble with them.

But then, when will come the time Israel (and the US?) must bomb Iran’s nuclear program locations back to the stone age, supported by many Arab countries around that don’t want to become subservient to a nuclear Iran?

Will Russia, while losing to Ukraine, China, and South Korea join Iran? Will this be the final battle of the united democracies against all dictators?

About the Author
MM is a prolific and creative writer and thinker, previously a daily blog contributor to the TOI. He often makes his readers laugh, mad, or assume he's nuts—close to perfect blogging. He's proud that his analytical short comments are removed both from left-wing and right-wing news sites. None of his content is generated by the new bore on the block, AI. * As a frontier thinker, he sees things many don't yet. He's half a prophet. Half. Let's not exaggerate. Or not at all because he doesn't claim G^d talks to him. He gives him good ideas—that's all. MM doesn't believe that people observe and think in a vacuum. He, therefore, wanted a broad bio that readers interested can track a bit what (lack of) backgrounds, experiences, and educations contribute to his visions. * This year, he will prioritize getting his unpublished books published rather than just blog posts. Next year, he hopes to focus on activism against human extinction. To find less-recent posts on a subject XXX among his over 2000 archived ones, go to the right-top corner of a Times of Israel page, click on the search icon and search "zuiden, XXX". One can find a second, wilder blog, to which one may subscribe too, here: https://mmvanzuiden.wordpress.com/ or by clicking on the globe icon next to his picture on top. * Like most of his readers, he believes in being friendly, respectful, and loyal. However, if you think those are his absolute top priorities, you might end up disappointed. His first loyalty is to the truth. He will try to stay within the limits of democratic and Jewish law, but he won't lie to support opinions or people when don't deserve that. (Yet, we all make honest mistakes, which is just fine and does not justify losing support.) He admits that he sometimes exaggerates to make a point, which could have him come across as nasty, while in actuality, he's quite a lovely person to interact with. He holds - how Dutch - that a strong opinion doesn't imply intolerance of other views. * Sometimes he's misunderstood because his wide and diverse field of vision seldomly fits any specialist's box. But that's exactly what some love about him. He has written a lot about Psychology (including Sexuality and Abuse), Medicine (including physical immortality), Science (including basic statistics), Politics (Israel, the US, and the Netherlands, Activism - more than leftwing or rightwing, he hopes to highlight reality), Oppression and Liberation (intersectionally, for young people, the elderly, non-Whites, women, workers, Jews, LGBTQIA+, foreigners and anyone else who's dehumanized or exploited), Integrity, Philosophy, Jews (Judaism, Zionism, Holocaust and Jewish Liberation), the Climate Crisis, Ecology and Veganism, Affairs from the news, or the Torah Portion of the Week, or new insights that suddenly befell him. * Chronologically, his most influential teachers are his parents, Nico (natan) van Zuiden and Betty (beisye) Nieweg, Wim Kan, Mozart, Harvey Jackins, Marshal Rosenberg, Reb Shlomo Carlebach, and, lehavdil bein chayim lechayim, Rabbi Dr. Natan Lopes Cardozo, Rav Zev Leff, and Rav Meir Lubin. This short list doesn't mean to disrespect others who taught him a lot or a little. One of his rabbis calls him Mr. Innovation [Ish haChidushim]. Yet, his originalities seem to root deeply in traditional Judaism, though they may grow in unexpected directions. In fact, he claims he's modernizing nothing. Rather, mainly basing himself on the basic Hebrew Torah text, he tries to rediscover classical Jewish thought almost lost in thousands of years of stifling Gentile domination and Jewish assimilation. (He pleads for a close reading of the Torah instead of going by rough assumptions of what it would probably mean and before fleeing to Commentaries.) This, in all aspects of life, but prominently in the areas of Free Will, Activism, Homosexuality for men, and Redemption. * He hopes that his words will inspire and inform, and disturb the comfortable and comfort the disturbed. He aims to bring a fresh perspective rather than harp on the obvious and familiar. When he can, he loves to write encyclopedic overviews. He doesn't expect his readers to agree. Rather, original minds should be disputed. In short, his main political positions are among others: anti-Trumpism, for Zionism, Intersectionality, non-violence, anti those who abuse democratic liberties, anti the fake ME peace process, for original-Orthodoxy, pro-Science, pro-Free Will, anti-blaming-the-victim, and for down-to-earth, classical optimism, and happiness. Read his blog on how he attempts to bridge any tensions between those ideas or fields. * He is a fetal survivor of the pharmaceutical industry (https://diethylstilbestrol.co.uk/studies/des-and-psychological-health/), born in 1953 to his parents who were Dutch-Jewish Holocaust survivors who met in the largest concentration camp in the Netherlands, Westerbork. He grew up a humble listener. It took him decades to become a speaker too, and decades more to admit to being a genius. But his humility was his to keep. And so was his honesty. Bullies and con artists almost instantaneously envy and hate him. He hopes to bring new things and not just preach to the choir. * He holds a BA in medicine (University of Amsterdam) – is half a doctor. He practices Re-evaluation Co-counseling since 1977, is not an official teacher anymore, and became a friendly, powerful therapist. He became a social activist, became religious, made Aliyah, and raised three wonderful kids. Previously, for decades, he was known to the Jerusalem Post readers as a frequent letter writer. For a couple of years, he was active in hasbara to the Dutch-speaking public. He wrote an unpublished tome about Jewish Free Will. He's a strict vegan since 2008. He's an Orthodox Jew but not a rabbi. * His writing has been made possible by an allowance for second-generation Holocaust survivors from the Netherlands. It has been his dream since he was 38 to try to make a difference by teaching through writing. He had three times 9-out-of-10 for Dutch at his high school finals but is spending his days communicating in English and Hebrew - how ironic. G-d must have a fine sense of humor. In case you wonder - yes, he is a bit dyslectic. If you're a native English speaker and wonder why you should read from people whose English is only their second language, consider the advantage of having an original peek outside of your cultural bubble. * To send any personal reaction to him, scroll to the top of the blog post and click Contact Me. * His newest books you may find here: https://www.amazon.com/s?i=stripbooks&rh=p_27%3AMoshe-Mordechai%2FMaurits+van+Zuiden&s=relevancerank&text=Moshe-Mordechai%2FMaurits+van+Zuiden&ref=dp_byline_sr_book_1
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