The Future Course of War depends on the actions of Iran and its Proxies

Avi Melamed is a former Israeli Intelligence Official and Senior Official on Arab Affairs. He is the founder of Inside the Middle East Institute providing apolitical knowledge about the middle east.

An Author, Intelligence Analyst, Educator, and Speaker, his expertise is Current Affairs in the Arab & Muslim World and their Impact on the Middle East and Israel’s Geopolitical Environment.

In an exclusive interview with Manish Rai, a geopolitical analyst and columnist for the Middle-East, he spoke about different aspects of recent attacks targeting Hezbollah’s operatives in Lebanon and the future of the ongoing multi-faced conflict.

Question- Recent explosions in electronic devices used by Hezbollah’s operatives in Lebanon. It is being considered as a brilliant covert operation of recent times. In your view what can be the objective of carrying on this kind of operation?

 Avi Melamed: In my view, it was done to significantly damage Hezbollah’s capabilities and to put additional pressure on Hezbollah to abandon its attacks on Northern Israel.

 Question- Some analysts also consider these attacks a bit reckless. What’s your take on it?

Avi Melamed: I won’t term these attacks as “reckless” as the imposed war on Israel which started on October 7 is only getting intensified. In this scenario, Israel has to take defensive measures. And respond effectively.

Question- In your view what will be the response of Hezbollah, Iran, and Iranian proxies?

Avi Melamed: I think their response will be a very calculated one and they won’t carry out unprecedented attacks. Any major response can jeopardize the whole situation and that won’t be in the interest of Iran and its proxies. In the past also we have seen their reactions have been limited.

Question- Diplomats and world leaders have warned that these attacks can spark full-fledged conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. What’s your opinion on this?

Avi Melamed: It has the potential of widening the conflict but then we have to consider the cost of engagement in full-fledged conflict for Iran and its proxies. Since the October 7 attacks Iran and its allies have been fighting a pre-calculated war with Israel. And it is not in their interest to enter into an all-out war with Israel. Moreover, the heavy military presence of the United States in the region is also acting as a deterrent for Iran.

Question- UN Secretary-General António Guterres condemned the attacks and also suggested the operation may have been planned as a prelude to a major Israeli attack on Lebanon. Do you see any possibility of a major attack coming?

Avi Melamed: In my opinion, these attacks were a warning sign for Hezbollah. Now the ball is in the court of Hezbollah and Iran. Their action will only determine whether a major military operation is launched on the Israel-Lebanon border or not. Thousands of residents in Northern Israel have been evacuated because of Hezbollah’s daily attacks if this issue is not solved diplomatically. I think in that case Israel may consider other options including large military operations.

Question- There is also speculation floating around that these attacks were carried out to derail the US-led proposal for a Gaza ceasefire. What’s your view on this?

Avi Melamed: Hamas miscalculated the Israeli response and didn’t expect such a massive retaliation from Israel after the October 7 attacks. Now Hamas is facing severe criticism from Gazans for making such a blunder and causing the destruction of Gaza. Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar is under immense pressure to show some achievements to his people. And under this pressure, Hamas is making unreasonable demands in any ceasefire negotiations.

Question- What’s your opinion about the latest Israeli incursions into the West Bank? Will the West Bank be going to see major military operations like Gaza in the coming time?

Avi Melamed: I don’t think the West Bank will see any major military operations like Gaza. In the West Bank, some kinetic operations are done to specifically target local militias. Moreover, it’s not in the interest of Israel nor the Palestinian Authority to widen the conflict in the West Bank. I think only pinpoint operations will be carried out in the West Bank.

Question-There are growing calls for a new defense minister in Israel. Do you think in case of new leadership it will lead to a changed tactic and recalibrate Israel’s stance?

Avi Melamed: Talks about the new Defence Minister have evaporated a little bit now. A sizable section of society thinks changing the leadership in the Defence ministry at this crucial time will be counterproductive. But even if there is a change I don’t think it will lead to a change in overall strategy.

Idan C who holds a dual degree in Political Science from Tel Aviv University provided vital inputs in framing questions for this interview.

The interview was originally published on www.organiser.org