The Hostage Dilemma

To make a deal or not to make a deal—that is the question.  As the war in Gaza drags on, many wonder why the hostages remain captive. Has the IDF hit a dead end? Despite widespread talk of a potential deal, no solution has emerged, leaving Israel in a prolonged standoff. In this impasse, with the hostages caught in a web of indecision and inaction, time works against Israel. For Israel, the hostage crisis is a source of profound anguish and hesitation—an unresolved crisis that demands urgent action but defies easy resolution.

The hostage crisis could endure for years, with hopes of external intervention proving impractical; Israel stands alone against Hamas. The hostages’ absence is the primary barrier to ending the conflict. Israel asserts that 101 civilians and combatants, taken captive on October 7, are still missing. Given their probable conditions, it’s difficult to believe many of them have survived; those who have cannot hold out indefinitely.

Gaza, meanwhile, has neither disclosed exact numbers nor confirmed the whereabouts of all captives, possibly due to factional divisions. The recent execution of six hostages by Hamas sent a chilling signal: any attempt at rescue risks further killings. This warning likely restrains the IDF, which now faces the peril of inadvertently encountering hostages and triggering another deadly consequence.

There are still large sections of Gaza that the IDF has not entered. These remain potential holding sites for hostages. The IDF’s cautious approach reflects an understanding that a misstep could be catastrophic. As a result, the military leadership has implied that the hostage issue requires a political solution, effectively placing the responsibility back on Israel’s government.

While the government awaits an IDF rescue, the military waits for a political “deal,” while the public rallies, with thousands calling for an end to the war—the conflict cannot end while hostages remain in captivity. This political-military deadlock is the second standoff in this equation, paralyzing Israel’s strategy.

For Gaza’s captors, the hostages have become a strategic “golden egg”—a high-stakes bargaining chip that shields them and exposes Israel’s vulnerability. It is therefore plausible that their incentive to release hostages is minimal. As long as hostages are held, Israel’s military options remain constrained. Thus, Gaza’s demands for a full IDF withdrawal in exchange for hostages are, in effect, a victory on their terms.

Suppose Israel chooses negotiation, willing to pay any price for the hostages’ return. How many hostages would actually come home?

X < 101

The number will always be less than 101, so what about the rest?

Gaza claims ignorance over the fate of all missing hostages. Thus, even with the best possible “deal,” the outcome will leave some families grieving and the nation divided over their unresolved fates.

Should Israel agree to a “deal” that includes an IDF withdrawal, and the return to Gaza of Nuchba operatives captured on October 7, in exchange for the release of fewer than 101 hostages?  The situation remains fraught. Can Israel truly move forward while hostages are missing? Would residents of the south feel safe returning to their homes knowing the same Nuchba forces have been freed in Gaza?

Realistically, the hostage crisis can never be fully resolved. Even if advocates of a sweeping deal succeed, the return of all 101 hostages is impossible.

Gaza’s strategy serves its interests well: as long as they hold hostages, they avert total military defeat. Even if no hostages are left alive, Gaza could exploit the uncertainty, leaving Israel in a perpetual bind.

To break the deadlock, Israel might consider an ultimatum, demanding that Gaza provide proof of life for each hostage within a fixed timeframe. If Hamas fails to comply, Israel could declare the hostages presumed dead, ceasing all further negotiations with Hamas and allowing the IDF to proceed with its military objectives without further hesitation.