Don Davis

The Russian and Middle East war scenario quandary for Israel

For years there have been ongoing political and military moves and counters, open and clandestine, strategic and tactical, and physical and cyber.

It’s a monstrous, brutal war everyone fears is coming, but are equally hesitant to make the first authentic, comprehensive strike.

But with the uncertainty of the existing American administration’s policy regarding Syria, Turkey’s proliferation, and Russia’s expansion, it may have sped up the ‘war-countdown’ clock.

Most regional countries and tribes will deal accordingly with the new Russian Order in the Middle East. Similar to when the old Soviet Republic saturated the territories via Egypt and Syria prior to the collapse of the dominant USSR. For Russia, it’s merely a simple matter of re-establishing old contacts, contracts, money and flexing their fearsome might.

Historically, the Middle East has encountered virtually everything in relation to authoritative powers, and authoritative powers entering their area. The region has experienced calm and order under strong regimes. But also suffered nearly perpetual fighting and turmoil from empires, kingdoms, religions and clans.

Although this time, it will all depend on Israel. And how Israel responds to Russia tightening their grip. Including, suspecting Russia will eventually prevent Israel from, what Israel deems vital and necessary, protective strikes against elements of Iran and Hezbollah, and their axis, in Lebanon, Iraq and Syria, who have sworn to annihilate Israel and the Jewish people.

Israel wields a formidable military force, as well as, allegedly, a nuclear arsenal. Therefore, the traditional Middle Eastern behavior pattern in relation to warfare, outside armies and threats to people, religion and countries, has altered significantly.

Decades have taught Israel lessons too. The current and most important one many purportedly, predominantly regret, was not striking Iran before Russia returned to the Middle East.

Reliable behavioral patterns, intelligence analysts and locals alike reported and predicted Israel was readying for a preempt strike against Iran, during the mid 2000s, and as late as 2012 and 2013, possibly multiple times, preceding Russia’s reemergence. This was later seemingly confirmed, or professed, publicly by an ex-Israeli Prime Minister.

However instead, Israel’s strike actions and decisions were, supposedly, altered by Shimon  Peres, and afterward by pressure and promises from an ally. Nowadays, reputedly viewed by certain individuals as a colossal mistake with grave ramifications.

Plus, may have reinforced a long-established belief in Israel, additionally fueled by preceding experiences, that they can only depend on themselves, and rely only on people with parallel principles.

Furthermore, circumstances are more complicated, or worse, as Israel’s religious and cultural divide escalates, together with what can best be described as, a government in limbo. Adding to the already erratic, dicey scenarios plaguing the Middle East.

On the other hand, especially during times of distress, Israel has always somehow made the decision, which they concretely believe is critical for their survival as a Jewish Nation, to pull together and furiously fight to protect the land of Israel.

Consequently despite Israel’s secular and religious crisis, and uncertain government endurance; world concern in regards to Israel’s secretive and stealthy abilities to strike adversaries on their own, with little or no warning, might be justified. Based on drastic Middle East deterioration, passionate Israeli conviction that Israel can only depend on Israel, their gargantuan determination to survive as a Jewish Nation amongst a routinely hostile environment, and the undetectable and unforeseeable Israeli stresses and reactions.

Assuming that is, there are no military mistakes in the meantime to immediately plunge into continental chaos and conflict.

Israel’s been through tough times and should not be underestimated. From the beginning of statehood, Israel faced the armies of seven Arab countries, in addition, Arab irregulars and foreigner volunteers. And no matter the conditions and odds in wars, battles and terror, Israel has relentlessly, dynamically, and creatively protected their country for seventy plus years.

Likewise, in former engagements with armies and terrorists, enemies of Israel knew there would be feverish Israeli reprisals. They knew, Israel would be coming. Bluntly stated, that is how Israel responds to any menace due to their narrow country borders, small population, high value of life, freedom  and rights, and surrounded by perennial threats.

Moreover, it won’t matter who is in the region, or who is Israel’s enemy. Israel will do what is essential to endure. They feel that ‘death is close at hand’, ‘their back is against the wall’ and ‘nowhere to go’.

This quandary should be a stark clue and reality check to Israel’s associates and so-called partners, and particularly a glaring warning to Israel’s enemies, as even in nature the smallest or meekest animals fight ferociously when cornered.

In conclusion, supported by consistent chronological behavior patterns and action data, Israel will unquestionably, stoutly, defend themselves, when they choose, and how they choose. If necessary, with everything they have.

Note: this is an abridged report released several weeks ago by the analyst author.

About the Author
Don Davis is a published Middle East analyst and book author that has been in the Middle East, North Africa, and Mediterranean region since 1992. For more than twenty years most of his research material was client confidential and behavioral related. But some of his abridged reports have been posted as articles or blogs. Don is also the book author of the international spy and assassin thriller, The Children of Santiago. The story is no fuzzy, cutesy story. Instead, a sobering, blunt, action and psychological account about a military general, Santiago, using child, teen and young adults as spies and assassins. Recruited from international families while on active assignments abroad during the 1960s, 70s, 80s and 1990s.