The sultan’s megalomania: Erdogan and the MENA region

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been a rather obnoxious figure ever since he came to power more than twenty years ago, but he is definitely well-versed in politics. A testament to his staying power, he has slowly transformed Türkiye into an autocratic state with a democratic veneer. Virtually unacknowledged by mainstream Western media, Erdogan has set his sights on the Middle East with gusto.

Un unusual brand of diplomacy

When Donald Trump became President of the United States, his diplomatic skills were unorthodox, to say the least. He was brash and had no issue picking fights with world leaders, as he did when he called North Korean dictator Kim Jong-Un “rocket man.” But, Donald Trump is nothing compared to the man who is known for engaging in diplomatic spats with pretty much everyone: Erdogan. I will provide just a few examples. At Davos in 2009, he interrupted Shimon Peres rather unceremoniously and called him a killer before marching off the stage. His anti-Israel rhetoric is, of course, known to most of us and it should not come as a surprise, considering that his political mentor Necmettin Erbakan was anti-Israel as well. But Erdogan seems to pick fights with virtually anyone who even slightly criticizes Türkiye. His politics is a blend of Islamism and ultranationalism. So, after restructuring the Turkish political system into a presidential one, Erdogan organized a popular referendum in 2017, which was supposed to grant him even more powers. In this case, the Turkish diaspora vote did wonders for him. To be fair, Erdogan’s popularity has been declining in Türkiye for years for a number of reasons, but he can always count on a strong support base among Dutch, French, and especially German Turks, who mostly remain loyal to him. In fact, I have always found it interesting how you can live and even be born abroad, but still have the voting power to influence politics in a country where you do not dwell. It is what I like about Israel: I have my own views and criticisms when it comes to Israeli politics, but if I wish to have a vote, I should live there, which is fair. Anyway, in last year’s presidential elections, the expat vote virtually secured Erdogan’s re-election. But in 2017, his cabinet ministers wanted to campaign among the Turkish diaspora in Europe for the referendum I mentioned earlier. His ministers had decided to visit Germany and the Netherlands, home to large Turkish communities. But local pro-Erdogan rallies were canceled in Germany and in the Netherlands the Dutch authorities stepped in, forbidding his minister of Foreign Affairs to land at Schiphol Airport. Then, his minister of Family Affairs decided to ignore the Dutch ban by taking a car from Germany to the Turkish consulate in Rotterdam, but she was apprehended by the police and denied the right to address the crowd. Erdogan launched into a diatribe calling both the Germans and Dutch “Nazis.” In fact, his fight with Dutch authorities lasted for three days. On the day his minister of Family Affairs was prohibited from addressing a crowd, the situation became tense. The crowd started to protest. After a while most of them had gone home, but some stayed behind and began pelting the police with bricks. That was the signal for the police to start clearing the stragglers. The entire affair was handled professionally and only seven people were injured, among them one policeman. But the next day, Turkish newspapers were screaming bloody murder. The Dutch police had used horses and dogs and one picture showed a protester on the ground being barked at by a dog – this was simply too much. Erdogan went all-out: he called the Dutch “Nazis”, “fascists”, and finally even blamed Dutch UN peacekeepers for slaughtering 8,000 Bosnian Muslim men and boys in Srebrenica in 1995. You could argue that the peacekeepers should have stopped the slaughter, but it was committed by Bosnian Serbs, not the Dutch. But it shows Erdogan’s style: abrasive, combative, and rather comfortable with hurling invectives.

The sultan and his gaze towards MENA

I refer to Erdogan as the sultan, because I believe that he considers himself the rightful heir to a system that no longer exists. Why else would he inaugurate his lavish presidential complex in 2014, at a time when Türkiye was already suffering from economic distress? Whenever he receives foreign dignitaries, they are welcomed by a presidential guard who are dressed in Ottoman garb, reminding you of Türkiye’s former glory days. But, this complex is part of his vision. And this vision is focused on Türkiye asserting itself aggressively in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Coincidentally, the MENA region used to be part of the Ottoman Empire. In its heyday, It would stretch from the North African shores through the Hijaz and end in the east, where it shared a border with the Safavid Empire, located in present-day Iran. Moreover, the Ottoman Empire held territory in the Balkans for centuries. In modern times, it becomes clear that Erdogan considers himself to be a worthy successor to Süleyman the Magnificent. Though his Justice and Freedom Party (AKP) denies being Islamist, its strongest ties are to openly Islamist groups: the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, Hamas in Gaza and a number of factions in Syria and Iraq. When you look more closely at Erdogan’s foreign policy, you can see the contours of the Ottoman Empire taking shape. Granted, he would not want to annex these countries by force – nor do I believe he would be able to – but why else is he so active in Bosnia-Herzegovina? Or does he meddle in Libyan affairs? He even inserted himself into Somali politics and is actively working to counter Kurds in Syria and Iraq – the “nightmare” of an independent Kurdistan or recognizing the Armenian genocide can drive Erdogan into a frenzy. In the case of the latter, he even took the time this year to send a letter to a European parliamentarian from the Dutch province of Friesland, who had made comments about the Armenian genocide. In the letter he urged her to pay more attention to history, as it was “not as bad as she thinks.”

Anti-Israel stance and Turkish designs

But now his obsession with Israel comes into play. Of course, he has always been anti-Israel, this is not new. But since the war with Hamas started on October 7, Erdogan’s comments have been incredibly aggressive and sometimes even ludicrous. On October 25, 2023 he came out in support of Hamas, calling them mujahideen who were defending their homeland – not once has he condemned the slaughter for which Hamas was responsible on October 7. Recently, though, he has begun accusing Israel of expansionism. Using Islam as a vehicle, he has started calling for an alliance of Muslim countries to counter Israeli designs on the Middle East. Addressing the Turkish parliament, he accused Israel of orchestrating Turkish military coups in the past, which were received with chants of “Death to Israel.” Also, he has accused Israel of attacking the al-Aqsa mosque, and now accuses the country of having designs on Lebanon, Syria, and even Iraq or as he calls it “our homeland between the Euphrates and Tigris rivers.”

For someone who is adamant in portraying Hamas as “resistance fighters,” it is rather odd that he becomes enraged when talking about the Kurdish PKK and Kurds in general. In fact, Türkiye is operating in Syria and Iraq, in order to prevent the creation of a “Terroristan”, as Erdogan calls it, on its southern borders – when he uses this term, he is referring to Kurdistan and in the past years he has been conducting ruthless military campaigns to thwart any possibility of an independent Kurdish state. While Erdogan can call the PKK terrorists and they are considered a terror organization by many countries including Israel, he persists in calling Hamas “freedom fighters,” regardless of their long history of mass slaughter of Israeli civilians, from bus bombings to October 7. He called Jerusalem “Turkish” on a number of occasions and pledged his support for the sanctity of al-Aqsa repeatedly. This, too, is quite funny, considering the fact that the Ottomans had allowed the mosque to fall into disrepair in the early twentieth century, as is shown by German political scientist Klaus Gensicke in his book The Mufti of Jerusalem and the Nazis. In fact, the grand mufti of Jerusalem Haj Amin al-Husaini – who we know would later on meet with Hitler and cooperate closely with Himmler – had to gather funds himself to repair the mosque. Lastly, as a self-proclaimed protector of Muslims worldwide it remains astonishing how little Erdogan has to say about the treatment of Uyghurs in Xinjiang, despite the fact that he shares a religious and ethnic bond with them. Alas, in this case, his Islamic or Turkish sympathies do not urge him to vehemently criticize China.

But, in my opinion, his calls for an alliance against Israel are a vague cover for his designs: a return of Turkish influence in former Ottoman lands and beyond. Indeed, Erdogan is seeking justification under the banner of Islam to become involved in Middle Eastern countries. When he talks about their shared homeland between the Euphrates and Tigris rivers, it is absolutely ludicrous to accuse Israel of trying to conquer these countries – Israel has enough problems already. But it shows that Erdogan wants to have a bigger stake in them. His soldiers are already active in the Syrian and Iraqi border regions. Erdogan is offering Turkish dominance in the region, disguised as Muslim solidarity. When the door to European Union membership is close to firmly shut, the only way for Erdogan to move forward is by looking east and south. And that is exactly what he has been doing aggressively. As seems to occur often, former great powers have a toxic yearning to restore their lost glory. Erdogan is just another example. He built his palace in 2014 to feel like a sultan. Now, he believes the time has come to act like one.