Erfan Fard

The US’s Political Will Gap: Iran’s Risky Gamble

Flanked by Secretary of State Antony Blinken (left) and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, President Joe Biden speaks during a cabinet meeting at the White House in Washington, D.C., January 5, 2023.(Kevin Lamarque/Reuters)

The Precarious Balancing Act in the Middle East

The current geopolitical climate in the Middle East is akin to a high-stakes game of chess, fraught with miscalculations and risky gambits. The Islamic Republic of criminal mullahs in Iran, in its attempt to assert dominance, has become embroiled in a ‘ring of fire,’ maneuvering proxy terrorist groups across Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and beyond. This aggressive posture, reminiscent of a chess player moving pieces across a board, reveals a deeper strategy rooted in regional influence and power dynamics.

The White House’s Reluctance and Iran’s Audacity

A critical factor in this complex equation is the apparent lack of political will in the White House to confront Iran’s aggressive tactics head-on. This hesitation to decisively counter Iran’s suppression and belligerence has emboldened Tehran to act like a ‘paper tiger,’ seeking confrontation without the fear of significant reprisal. It’s a dangerous game, one where Iran’s military and defensive capabilities, although limited, are leveraged through asymmetric warfare and proxy conflicts.

The Silent Crisis and the Specter of War

The recent Iranian ballistic missile attacks in northern Iraq epitomize this escalating tension. In a world adhering to international norms, such an act would be a casus belli, a clear cause for war. Yet, the muted response from Baghdad and the international community only serves to embolden Iran further. This silence is not just a tacit approval of Iran’s actions but a dangerous precedent that undermines regional stability and security.

America’s Myopic View and the Middle Eastern Quagmire

The Biden administration‘s approach to the Middle East, perceived by many as a series of disconnected crises, is alarmingly shortsighted. The looming threat of a ‘wider war’ is a real concern, but it should not paralyze decisive action against clear acts of aggression and destabilization. The Middle East, especially Iran, is a complex geopolitical landscape, and addressing its challenges requires a nuanced, informed, and proactive strategy.

 Iran’s Internal Turmoil and the Global Response

Inside Iran, the situation is akin to a boiling pot ready to overflow. The shadow of war looms large, and the internal dynamics are marked by a loss of control and anarchy. The government, perceived as the weakest since the 1979 revolt, faces challenges from within and without. Yet, the world watches, seemingly indifferent to the ‘player’ on the global stage who perpetuates crime and disaster.

The Need for a New Strategy

This situation calls for a reevaluation of global and regional policies towards Iran. The question arises: is there a new, more effective strategy to deal with this ‘cancerous tumor’ in the heart of the Middle East? The answer lies in a coordinated, decisive approach that balances deterrence with diplomacy, sanctions with dialogue, and containment with engagement.


The time for passive observation and fragmented responses is over. The international community, led by the United States, must come together to formulate a coherent and robust strategy to address the Iranian challenge.

This strategy should not only focus on Iran’s external aggressions but also support the Iranian people’s aspirations for a stable, democratic, and prosperous future. Only through such a comprehensive approach can the perilous politics of the Middle East be navigated towards a more peaceful and stable era.

Iran simmers like a boiling pot under the shadow of war, with its government at its most fragile since 1979’s revolt, as the world watches indifferently, contemplating whether there’s a new course of action to address this brewing crisis.

Iran’s current state is tumultuous, akin to a pot on the verge of boiling over. The ominous shadow of war casts itself over the nation. Within this landscape, elements of the government and a facade of opposition, much like vultures circling their prey, scavenge for opportunities amidst the chaos. However, the grip on national control has evidently weakened, giving way to an anarchistic climate dominating the country.

This represents the government’s most precarious and weakened position since the revolt of 1979. In this critical juncture, the global community observes, somewhat indifferently, a key player on the international stage, one that has been instrumental in orchestrating crimes and disasters. This observation raises a pressing question:

Is there an emerging strategy or a novel approach capable of effectively addressing and possibly excising this pernicious influence that Iran wields?

About the Author
Erfan Fard is a counter-terrorism analyst and Middle East Studies researcher based in Washington, DC. He is in Middle Eastern regional security affairs with a particular focus on Iran, Counter terrorism, IRGC, MOIS and Ethnic conflicts in MENA. \He graduated in International Security Studies (London M. University, UK), and in International Relations (CSU-LA), and is fluent in Persian, Kurdish, Arabic and English. Follow him in this twitter account @EQFARD
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