The Voting Behaviors of America’s Jews: Insights into the 2024 Campaign

As we move closer to the 2024 election, several key characteristics appear to be particularly significant as we unpack Jewish voting behavior.

New Polls and What they Tell Us:

We have three recent studies of Jewish voters. A poll posted by the Jewish Democratic Council shows the Vice President with a commanding lead, 72% to 25%. A Pew study offers a somewhat smaller Harris lead, where the vote is seen to be 65% to 35%. The third poll, taken of a far smaller sample in New York, gives Kamala Harris a 56% to 37% lead over Donald Trump.

The Questions Jews Are Asking:

As I move around the country, offering presentations on the 2024 election and the Jewish vote, among the most asked questions, “are Jews moving into the Republican Party?” Certainly, this is not the first election where such a question is being posed. Indeed, for the past thirty years, political scientists have speculated on the status of “the Jewish vote”. There is no striking evidence currently to suggest any significant change in these voting patterns. Indeed, we know some voters do shift their votes, often driven by a specific issue, an appealing candidate, or an expectation that they may be holding.

Among the issues being raised by Jewish audiences have to do with “which candidate is best for Israel?”; “why are younger Jewish voters less supportive of Israel?”; and “how can we contain the growing antisemitism?”. These concerns reflect a sense of uneasiness that one finds today among American Jews. This level of “political uncertainty” has been recently highlighted in a new Jewish poll tied to the broader question of the “state” of America’s democracy. 46% of American Jews polled in this April survey expressed a deep anxiety regarding this nation’s democratic character.

In that same study, three issues stood out as particularly significant for Jewish voters, abortion (30%), the economy (26%) and Israel (25%). While none of these appear to be particularly surprising outcomes, they point to the shifting voter priorities we can identify in this election, compared to 2020 and even earlier, where neither abortion nor Israel were highlighted among the top echelon considerations. Both items have taken on a heightened degree of attention in this particular election, in response to the unfolding events in connection with both matters.

As Jewish voters are overwhelmingly older than other constituencies, we often note a particularly significant focus on health care, social security, and Medicare, as high-profile considerations; the attention to these items appears pale in comparison to these emerging policy questions.

 What Else are We Learning?

• Younger American Jews Are Less Connected to the Democratic Party: We know that younger voters in general and Jewish Gen Z’s in particular are less connected to political parties. Voter registration patterns reflect this pattern of de-connecting with one’s parents’ or family party affiliation.
• Opting instead for registering as independents, these voters nonetheless are strikingly more liberal than previous generations. Of particular interest, as we move now into the fifth generation of the American Jewish experience, the political behavior of these newer, less Jewishly connected voters tends to be aligned with more generic and generational concerns than specific Jewish or ethnic priorities.
• A Snapshot of Jewish Voting Types:
• We can probably identify at least four “types” of Jewish voters. Why? As with other groups, Jews don’t come to their political position in a lock-step manner, as there are multiple factors that produce a particular basis for party support.
• We can find these various “types” of political activists among Jewish voters:
• Social Values Voter: The alignment here of “Tikkun Olam” (social justice) a core Jewish imperative, with an assortment of Democratic Party priorities has created a natural and ongoing network of connections.
• Party Loyalist Voter: Often families have a long affiliation or connection with one party or the other. This particular affinity is frequently tied to generations of loyalty to a specific party.  Jews, like other citizens, demonstrate this affinity, as well.
• Single Issue Voter: As within both political parties, these voters identify a particular issue as both core to their identity and therefore represents their political priority at the ballot box. Israel is most frequently referenced but at times it can be a particular domestic matter.
• Religious Value Voter: These voters bring their Judaism into the voting booth as they seek to align their religious beliefs and practices with American politics. Similar to Christian Evangelicals, these mostly Orthodox Jews voters seek to join their religious priorities with public policy objectives.

Some New and Old Data about Jewish Voters:

• As is often referenced Jews are among the oldest white ethnic voting groups. Among all constituencies, Jews vote in extraordinarily high numbers, where nearly 85% of eligible voters participate!
• Just about 75% of the Jewish population reside in only seven states that include New York, California, Florida, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Maryland, and Illinois. 1.8 million Jews, or about one third of American Jewry, live in 25 Congressional Districts. One finds the greatest concentation of Jewish voters in Florida’s 21st Congressional District and New York’s 17th.
• Orthodox Jews are the fastest growing constituency within the community and their voting influence will increasingly be more important.
• One of the newer considerations involves the emergence of Muslim Americans replacing the Jewish community as this nation’s second largest religious constituency by 2050.

As we are moving into the final seven weeks of this campaign, here is what we will need to monitor.

• Voter Sentiments: New polls that may tell us if we are seeing any trends or changes since Vice President Harris has entered this race or provide a further reading of how the presidential debate may have shifted voter sentiment.
• New Funding: Who is seen as raising the significant “end of campaign” funding?  As dollars drive the ability of campaigns to run ads, hire staff, and build momentum, we are likely to see a massive expenditure of campaign funds over the final weeks of this contest.
• Key Endorsements: Are we likely to see any high-profile endorsements over the closing weeks? One should not discount the importance and impact of the Taylor Swift endorsement. But will there be others, and for whom?
• Critical Policy Announcements: What new messaging will we be receiving from both political camps about their candidates’ positions on various issues. Each side will seek to clarify and extend their reach by framing policy positions. What will be the impact of such statements in these closing weeks?