The fighting in low intensity on the northern border is what is known here as “going with but feeling without”. “Israbloff”.
There is no doubt that Israel is not interested in an all-out war with Hezbollah, mainly due to the tens of thousands of precision missiles in their hands, which can cause heavy damage to Israeli infrastructure and civilians. This is despite the assassinations attributed to Israel, which Israel estimates will not cross the threshold of entering an all-out war, but will create the illusion of power mainly to the Israeli public. Israel is trying to save face.
Hezbollah, for its part, is also careful not to cross a certain threshold, not because of their fear of Israel (this fear disappeared completely on October 7), but because of the Iranians’ and Hezbollah’s fear of the US. This is the balance of horror. The US deters Iran, Hezbollah deters Israel.
But in the meantime, tens of thousands of northern residents have been refugees for more than three months and it doesn’t look like they will be able to return soon.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah is shooting directly into Israeli towns, the damage and the danger is great.
Israel will not defeat Hezbollah in combat. Therefore, a solution is required that will allow a return to the reality that has existed here for the past 17 years of a relatively quiet border.
The solution exists, but for some reason it seems that Israel’s leaders are ignoring it. Resolution 1701 of the UN Security Council after the Second Lebanon War in 2006. The Lebanese government promotes this solution.
The main point of the resolution is moving Hezbollah to the other side of the Litani river, and in the area left on the Southern part of Lebanon, will be taken over by the Lebanese army and reinforced UNIFIL forces.
Israel, for its part, will be forced to retreat to the blue line, which will include the Shebaa Farms and perhaps even the northern part of Kfar Rhadjar.
The origins of O.K. is a word that originated from WWI. It was a sign between the trenches of “0 Kills”.
Zero kills is what we should aspire to achieve here.
Israel cannot aspire to achieve more than a relatively quiet border. We won’t see a victory here. 10 years of peace in which the residents of the North can return to their homes is the best reality that can be aspired to at the moment.
The trouble is that there is no one in the Israeli government who will say – this is the best solution. Let’s promote it.
We will continue to exchange blows, heat up the border, Israelis will be harmed and pay with their lives, the residents of the North will not be able to return to their homes, and what do we achieve from this situation? Nothing. No advanced thinking in our ranks.
Resolution 1701 is the solution for the northern front. We need to take it with both hands.