Trump 2.0: Peace in the Middle East?

Donald Trump will return to the White House in January, the Middle East would undoubtedly face a reshaping of US policy. His past tenure, characterized by a mix of transactional diplomacy and hardline posturing, provides key indicators of what his administration might prioritize.

In the wake of the recent Israel-Hamas conflict, Trump has been unequivocal in his condemnation of Hamas, labeling them as a “brutal terrorist organization.” He has consistently aligned himself with Israel, criticizing the Biden administration for what he perceives as a lack of strong support for America’s key ally. Regarding the ongoing hostage crisis involving Israeli and foreign nationals, Trump has called for swift, decisive action, suggesting that a tougher approach would deter such incidents in the future. This probably will mean more support to Prime Minister Netanyahu and more pressure on Qatar and Egypt to deliver a hostage agreement.

Trump has historically favored policies aimed at reducing funding streams for groups like Hamas, which could mean reinstating or even expanding sanctions and cutting off aid to entities linked to the organization.

Trump’s approach to Iran is likely to be one of the most significant shifts from the current administration. During his presidency, Trump withdrew from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran Nuclear Deal, and imposed a “maximum pressure” campaign of economic sanctions. He accused Iran of destabilizing the region through its support of militant groups and its ballistic missile program.

If re-elected, Trump could double down on this hardline stance, potentially seeking to dismantle Iran’s nuclear ambitions entirely through coercion or the threat of military action. His administration might also aim to forge a broader coalition of regional players to counterbalance Iran’s influence.

One of Trump’s most lauded achievements in the Middle East was the Abraham Accords, a series of normalisation agreements between Israel and several Arab nations, including the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco. These accords marked a historic shift in regional dynamics, opening up avenues for economic and security cooperation.

Trump has hinted at the possibility of expanding these agreements, with a Saudi-Israel normalization deal being a potential crown jewel of his foreign policy. During recent interviews, Trump suggested that his unique negotiating style could bring Saudi Arabia and Israel to the table, creating a “new era of peace and prosperity” in the region. Such a deal could realign Middle Eastern geopolitics, bolstering an anti-Iranian bloc while fostering greater economic integration.

Trump’s vision for the Middle East could also benefit the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), a project aimed at enhancing trade and connectivity across these regions. His administration’s focus on strengthening ties between Israel, Saudi Arabia, and other key players could provide a stable environment for IMEC to flourish.

Moreover, Trump’s transactional approach to international relations could result in increased investment and infrastructure development along the corridor, promoting regional trade and providing a counterbalance to China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

A second Trump presidency would likely bring a return to more aggressive, transactional diplomacy in the Middle East. His hardline policies on Iran, unwavering support for Israel, and focus on expanding the Abraham Accords could reshape regional alliances and foster new economic opportunities. However, the potential for increased tensions, particularly with Iran, could also lead to heightened instability. As the world watches the unfolding dynamics, one thing is clear: the Middle East would once again be at the forefront of US foreign policy under Trump. Could one dream of peace in the Middle East?