Trump Creates Era of the ‘President-in-Waiting’

In U.S. politics, we’ve long recognized three phases of a presidency:

1. The incumbent president actively shaping policy.
2. The outgoing president (often called the “lame duck”), winding down their influence.
3. The president-elect, preparing to take office but not yet wielding power.

Donald Trump has shattered these norms. His unprecedented return to power has introduced a fourth phase: the “president-in-waiting”—a leader whose influence is already transforming global politics before he even steps back into the Oval Office.

Since Trump’s election on November 5, 2024, governments around the world have been forced to adjust in anticipation of his policies. Whether out of fear, opportunity, or strategic calculation, the “Trump effect” has become an undeniable force shaping decisions from the Middle East to Europe, Asia, and the Americas.

The Middle East: Anticipating Trump’s Return

The first shockwaves were felt in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Iran. After a decisive Israeli strike crippled Iran’s air defenses, analysts braced for Tehran’s retaliation. Yet, to the world’s surprise, Iran held back.

The reason? Trump’s shadow. Many believe the Ayatollahs fear that Trump would:

• Empower Israel to destroy Iran’s nuclear program.
• Greenlight strikes on Iran’s oil infrastructure, crippling its economy.
• Encourage uprisings among Iran’s already struggling population.

This wasn’t an isolated event. The region has seen a cascade of developments driven by Trump’s looming presidency:

• Israel and Lebanon: A sudden agreement to end hostilities, with Hezbollah—backed by Iran—eager to de-escalate before Trump-aligned policies embolden Israel further.
• Syria: A stunning coup dismantled Assad’s long-standing regime, with Iran’s proxies and even Russia limiting their support.

While existing weaknesses in Hezbollah, Iran, and Russia played a role, the Trump effect acted as the trigger, accelerating these shifts. Regional players are preemptively repositioning to avoid being on the losing end of Trump’s anticipated policies.

In recent days, we’ve also heard about a tourism agreement between Israel and the Philippines. Tucked away in the report was news of a naval military deal involving the sale of Israeli “Dvora” patrol boats. This may hint at the beginning of rapprochement with Israel by countries that distanced themselves under the Biden administration, now anticipating an American administration more aligned with Israel. A similar trend was seen with the Abraham Accords and the warming ties between Israel and countries in South America and Africa.

China: A Nervous Watch on Trump’s Agenda

Trump’s potential return has also rattled China. The recent U.S. legislation targeting TikTok—one of China’s most powerful tools of cultural and strategic influence—reflects Trump’s earlier push to curb Beijing’s reach. Now, with Trump’s presidency looming, China faces the possibility of:

• New tariffs on exports to the U.S. that could shake its economy.
• Broader restrictions that weaken its global influence.

Beijing’s leadership is watching anxiously as Trump-aligned forces gain momentum in Washington. The economic and political implications for China—and the world—are massive.

Europe: Shifting Alliances and Defense Realities

In Europe, leaders are already bracing for Trump’s longstanding demands for NATO allies to increase defense spending and reduce reliance on the U.S. Trump’s insistence could mark the end of an 80-year reliance on American taxpayers to secure Europe’s borders.

French President Macron, who once compared conversations with Trump to “eating sausage—you’d rather not know what’s inside,” recently rushed to meet with Trump. It’s a telling sign of Europe’s urgency to navigate what a Trump presidency could mean for its security and alliances.

The Americas: Trade Tensions on the Horizon

In Canada and Mexico, preparations are underway for Trump’s proposed trade tariffs. Even small changes could disrupt long-standing agreements and reshape North American economies. Governments are proactively exploring contingencies, knowing that Trump’s policies rarely leave room for complacency.

Ukraine: Whispers of Settlement

Even in Ukraine, where a devastating war has dragged on for years, there are early talks of a settlement. The prospect of a Trump administration less committed to U.S. involvement has created a sense of urgency among stakeholders to seek alternatives before policy shifts occur.

A President Before the Presidency

Donald Trump’s influence is already rewriting global strategies. His impending return has triggered shifts more dramatic than those seen during entire presidential terms.

It’s no wonder that Time Magazine named Trump its “Person of the Year for 2024”. Whether admired or feared, Trump’s re-emergence has redefined the nature of political influence, introducing a new reality: the era of the president-in-waiting.