Trump may surprise and turn out to be a boon peace

The “peace camp” in Israel and the United States is in despair and stagnation following Trump’s election as U.S. president. These emotions are understandable considering the abominable personal traits that Trump brings to the White House and the celebrations among the Israeli right-wing politicians. Adding to the pessimism are some of the nominations that Trump announced, such as the evangelical Mike Huckabee, who doesn’t believe in Palestinian rights as ambassador, and the hawk Senator Marco Rubio, as Secretary of State.

However, even if Trump’s motivations differ significantly from those of previous U.S. administrations that sought to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, there are reasons to consider a scenario where, contrary to the Israeli Right’s hopes for annexation, Trump might promote diplomatic agreements.

The seeds of change are already visible: a ceasefire agreement with Lebanon reached shortly after Trump’s victory, an emerging deal for the release of hostages, and reports of progress toward normalization with Saudi Arabia alongside Israel’s commitment to a “path toward a Palestinian state.” Even the assertive activities of the PA in Jenin against Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and local groups of terrorists could be attributed to the expectations for positive developments in the American role.

While these developments occur during the twilight of Biden’s presidency, they are significantly influenced by Trump’s election and his impending return to the White House.

Trump’s primary decision-making motivations are rooted in his narcissistic desire to showcase deal-making skills, private and national business considerations, and a tendency to avoid involving the United States in wars.

Over the years, Trump has spared no criticism for the decision in 2009 to award the Nobel Peace Prize to then-newly elected President Barack Obama, claiming he deserved it far more. Trump once declared, “If I were called Obama, I’d get the Nobel Prize in 10 seconds.”

Beyond personal ambitions, Trump’s isolationist instincts could play a significant role in advancing an agreement. In his victory speech, Trump stated, “I’m not going to start wars; I’m going to end wars,” reflecting the ethos around which his foreign policy team is being assembled. Figures such as his special envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, or his son-in-law’s father and adviser on Arab affairs, Massad Boulos, are goal-oriented individuals focused on bringing quiet to the Middle East, ending existing conflicts, and preventing new ones.

Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, who played a role in diplomatic initiatives during Trump’s previous term, including the Abraham Accords, will probably rejoin his close circle due to his connections with the Saudis.

Trump’s team of advisers is committed to doing whatever it takes to bring their boss closer to his ultimate goal of the Nobel Peace Prize. Furthermore, Trump’s current political base consists of isolationist MAGA Republicans, who will balance the evangelical Christians supporting apocalyptic visions, who were influential in his previous term.

The strengthened position of isolationists in Trump’s administration spells bad news for Ukraine, which may be forced to make significant concessions to Russia, or for Taiwan, which might be pressured to bow to avoid Chinese aggression. However, it could be good news for diplomatic agreements in our region.

Despite Netanyahu’s efforts to create a different impression, Trump seems to prioritize absolute quiet over “total victory,” according to his recent statements. This could have a bigger influence on his regional policy than the religious zeal of evangelicals, such as the proposed ambassador Mike Huckabee. As we saw with the Abraham Accords, Trump does not rely on government agencies but instead places his trust in a close circle of appointees. Therefore, it is unlikely that he will work through Senator Rubio’s State Department.

Given these dynamics, it does not have to be taken as a given that Trump will allow Netanyahu to drag him into a war with Iran or let Netanyahu’s messianic partners ignite the Middle East by annexing territory or altering the status quo on the Temple Mount.

The 19th-century philosopher Hegel coined the term “the cunning of history,” where the nature and intentions of individuals lead to unexpected outcomes. That same “cunning of history” could result in Trump succeeding where Biden, who believes in diplomacy, failed. Trump’s narcissism and his drive for personal glory, combined with the isolationism of his circle, could make him more determined than Biden to promote an end to conflict and a future of peace in the region.

Trump holds a significant advantage over Biden in his willingness to pressure Netanyahu. Trump’s election was celebrated by most of Netanyahu’s ministers, which gives him more leverage than Biden, who refrained from applying American pressure to implement a ceasefire and normalization with Saudi Arabia.

If Trump demands an agreement, Netanyahu will find it difficult to resist, especially when the choice is between advancing regional normalization or facing a public confrontation with a president known for “turning” on those around him and using undiplomatic language toward Netanyahu.

Just as the Trump administration tailored the Abraham Accords to counter Netanyahu’s previous government’s annexation ambitions, it has the potential to craft a normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia. A withdrawal from Gaza and recognition of a Palestinian state, per the parameters of the Arab Initiative (originally a Saudi initiative), could create the “perfect package” that Netanyahu’s government would find challenging to reject.

Another reason for a “political horizon” for Palestinians as part of the normalization deal is the Saudi expectation for an upgrade of their security assurances from the U.S., which requires bipartisan support in order to get the 2/3 majority in the Senate.

There’s a saying, “Only the right can make peace.” Among the people surrounding Trump, there are dealmakers eager to close the next big deal for their boss. Coupled with MAGA advocates seeking to minimize U.S. involvement abroad and Trump’s enthusiasm for a Nobel Peace Prize, it could finally bring positive change to our region.

This is an attempt at optimism in a deeply pessimistic reality. Trump is indeed a very unpredictable person, and there’s always the possibility that he will ultimately side with warmongers rather than peacemakers.

However, we must remember that Trump is not a proponent of Greater Israel but rather someone whose actions are driven by his personal interests and those of his regional partners who do not work for Bezalel Smotrich, or Yossi Dagan.

We must not lose hope and continue working to advance the prospects of a diplomatic agreement to end the war in Gaza and the occupation of the West Bank, as an opposition to the Trump Administration if he promotes annexation and wars, or as partners if he promotes peace.