Turkey empowers islamists as the spectre of ISIS looms over Syria

Turkey backed, Muslim brotherhood inspired militia are continuing to engage Kurdish led Syrian Defence Forces (SDF) troops backed by Turkish artillery and drones. This not only distracts the SDF from protecting its territory and citizens, creates a new humanitarian crisis, but above all exponentially increasing risks of over 50000 ISIS combatants held in prisons by the SDF breaking free. This creates a huge security risk for the US, middle east and world in general.

U.S. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a key ally of President-elect Donald Trump, has raised the prospect of imposing sanctions against Turkey in response to its intensified military operations targeting American-backed Kurdish forces in Syria. His comments come as tensions escalate in northeastern Syria, where Turkey’s artillery and drone strikes have reportedly targeted positions held by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a U.S.-supported coalition primarily led by Kurdish groups.

Turkey justifies its military actions as a counterterrorism measure against groups linked to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which it deems a terrorist organization. Ankara considers the PKK and its affiliates an existential threat to national security. Over the weekend, Turkey-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) forces reportedly captured the strategic city of Manbij, forcing the SDF to withdraw. Turkish media described the operation as a campaign against Kurdish militias, further escalating regional tensions.

The SDF, however, has accused Turkey of destabilizing the region through aggressive military actions. Clashes near Manbij have continued as Turkey-backed forces advance. Senator Graham warned that Turkey’s actions could undermine U.S. interests and regional stability, especially concerning the Kurdish forces who were pivotal in defeating the Islamic State (ISIS).

In a post on X, Graham wrote, “We should not allow the Kurdish forces – who helped us destroy ISIS on President Trump’s watch – to be threatened by Turkey or the radical Islamists who have taken over Syria.” He also highlighted the potential release of approximately 50,000 ISIS detainees held by Kurdish forces, warning that an “ISIS jailbreak” could reignite the group’s global terror network, posing a severe threat to international security.

While acknowledging Turkey’s legitimate security concerns, Graham criticized its attacks on the SDF, arguing that they undermine joint counterterrorism efforts and risk further destabilizing the region.

The recent ceasefire agreement between the SDF and Turkey-backed SNA in Manbij, brokered with U.S. mediation, illustrates the complexity of the ongoing conflict. The SDF has expressed willingness to pursue a political resolution to Syria’s crisis, with its general commander, Mazloum Abdi, stating, “Our goal is to cease fire throughout Syria and enter into a political process for the future of the country.”

Manbij’s takeover by Turkish-backed forces, including elements of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), highlights shifting dynamics in Syria. HTS, with roots in extremist Islamist movements, has emerged as a key player, further complicating the situation for Kurdish forces.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has openly supported HTS and views the SDF as an extension of the PKK. For Turkey, the toppling of Bashar al-Assad’s regime by opposition forces aligned with HTS is a significant victory, strengthening Ankara’s influence in northern Syria. However, the SDF’s loss of territory and Turkey’s continued operations raise questions about the future of Kurdish autonomy and the region’s stability.

Kurdish forces, who previously enjoyed U.S. backing, now face a precarious future. Renad Mansour, a Middle East expert at Chatham House, noted, “The Kurds in Syria, after many years of autonomous rule, are in probably the most precarious and volatile environment since they developed those structures.”

If the U.S. pursues sanctions against Turkey, it could severely strain relations between the two NATO allies. Such measures would also reflect Washington’s broader struggle to balance its commitments to Kurdish allies, counterterrorism goals, and its strategic partnership with Turkey.

Meanwhile, the incoming Trump administration’s stance on Syria remains uncertain. While some officials advocate for supporting Kurdish forces against ISIS, Trump’s recent comments suggest a preference for disengagement. “Syria is a mess, but is not our friend,” Trump wrote on X, adding, “The United States should have nothing to do with it. This is not our fight.”

The evolving conflict in Syria highlights the high stakes for global stability and counterterrorism efforts. As power shifts in northern Syria, the U.S. faces critical decisions about its role in the region and its alliances with both Turkey and Kurdish forces. Whether through sanctions, mediation, or disengagement, Washington’s choices will have far-reaching consequences for Syria’s future and the fight against ISIS.