We need an adult in the room

Israel is now embroiled in a multi-front war with no clear strategy to reach an end.  Netanyahu has claimed that Hamas can be completely defeated through militarily action. Many, including myself, disagree but even Netanyahu has not claimed that Iran and its proxies, Hezbollah and the Houthis can be completely defeated through military action. The maximum realistic goal Netanyahu’s government has claimed to try to achieve is deterrence. Deterrence means that if Israel causes enough physical damage to an enemy, that enemy will think twice about attacking Israel, for the time being. There are two problems with this strategy. The first problem is, when do we know that our enemy has been deterred? I have heard many talking heads on the television, some representing the current Israeli government, claiming to understand what is in our enemy’s head or what our enemy is planning, without any real evidence that they are privy to such information. In fact, most of the evidence is to the contrary. The second problem with deterrence is that it leaves an enemy on our border or within striking distance of our borders with an overwhelming desire to strike when they believe they have the military advantage.

These two problems are emblematic of the current Israeli government’s failures which led to October 7^th, 2023. Netanyahu has arrogantly misjudged and misread our enemies for years, kicking the can down the road and not engaging in a long-term strategic diplomatic effort to change the basic tapestry of the Middle East. At the same time, Netanyahu has ignored opportunities and discounted our friends, especially those countries with whom Israel has diplomatic relations in the region and our greatest friend, the United States. Netanyahu has convinced his followers that Israel’s only choice is to live by the sword, which means sacrifices will have to be made, including our soldiers, civilians and the 101 hostages held in Gaza.

The war in Gaza is more or less at a standstill with no sign of negotiations for a ceasefire to bring the hostages home. The so far successful military operation to remove the Hezbollah threat on our border with Lebanon offers a chance to enable tens of thousands of displaced Israelis to return to their homes. A successful military operation, however, will not be enough to provide Israelis with the long-term security they need to consider rebuilding their lives in the north. The government may decide to hold on to a security belt from the border to the Litani River as Israel did in the 80’s and 90’s, but we all know where that leads.

I am under no illusion that Netanyahu will change his core beliefs nor that there is anything the Israeli public can do to shake Netanyahu from his current position as Prime Minister. Now, holding a 68-seat majority, hundreds of thousands of protestors in the streets, nightly criticism on television networks, investigations by international courts, a civilian led commission of inquiry, and polling which shows that the number of mandates the current coalition would receive if elections were held today falls below the 60 seat threshold to form a government, will not shake Netanyahu from his position of power. We are very likely stuck with this failed government until the end of its term in 2026.

In the end, only a diplomatic solution will provide real security to the people of Israel. I have lived within walking distance from the Jordanian border since 1978.  Real security for my family and my community was achieved in 1994 when Israel and Jordan signed a peace treaty. Similarly, the peace treaty with Egypt has provided Israel with one of its most important strategic security assets.

To provide security to the people of Israel the government must leverage the current tactical military victories in Lebanon and Gaza into strategic diplomatic victories. For this to happen, the United States needs to find the right time to persuasively propose to Netanyahu, an overall diplomatic process which leads to the end of the military threat of Hezbollah from the north, Hamas from the south, and Iran and her proxies from the east. The process must start with a ceasefire in Lebanon and Gaza, the release of the hostages and the appropriate international forces (more like the MFO in Sinai and less like UNIFL in Lebanon) to stop the reentry of terrorists into the areas from which Israel must withdraw in a diplomatic solution.

However, as we have already seen, Biden’s influence on Netanyahu is not nearly as strong as Smotrich and Ben-Gvir’s influence and they will never agree to a diplomatic solution. They are even more committed to the sword than Netanyahu. Gideon Saar’s entrance into the government will probably enable Netanyahu to pass a draft law which will placate the ultra-orthodox parties but does not protect Netanyahu from Ben Gvir’s threat to topple the government if Netanyahu agrees to any kind of ceasefire/hostage deal.

For a US diplomatic initiative to succeed, we need an adult in the room. In my opinion, there is only one potential adult in the current Israeli government, SHAS Chair MK Aryeh Deri. With eleven seats in the Knesset, Deri has the power to bring down the Israeli government. The question is, why would he use that power now if he had not used that power up until now?  In July the former Chief Sephardi Rabbi of Israel Rabbi Yitzhak Yosef, said that the release of terrorists with blood on their hands is permitted to achieve the release of the hostages. Rabbi Ovadia Yosef, Yitzhak’s father, also a former Chief Sephardi Rabbi and founder, together with Deri of the SHAS party, also supported the release of terrorists in exchange for Israeli hostages during the Gilad Shalit negotiations. Deri has the halachic backing to support a ceasefire/hostage deal but has not yet used his potential ultimatum to push for the acceptance of such a deal. My assumption is that Deri believes that Netanyahu’s government is still the best government to pass a draft law, he and his constituents can swallow. If Netanyahu now manages to pass a draft law this may open the door for Deri to use his ultimatum and push the government into accepting a ceasefire/hostage release deal and start a long-term diplomatic effort to achieve real security for Israel.

Even though I have never voted for SHAS and likely never will, I am not shy about letting MK Arye Deri know that I am counting on him to be the adult in the room. If anyone else is interested in letting MK Arye Deri know of your support for a ceasefire/hostage deal his email is aderey@knesset.gov.il.

Post Script:

For real security to be achieved the diplomatic process cannot stop with withdrawals and hostage/terrorist exchanges. Real security for Israelis will only come when the Palestinian’s are given a seat at the table. A recognition of the critical role a strengthened and reformed Palestinian Authority must play in Israel’s security will require a major shift in Israeli strategic thinking.