What Does the Future Hold?

Our summer was hotter than normal, way hotter than normal. Our mean average summertime temperatures have risen by more than 2 degrees since the late 1990s.  This information was supplied to me by Nevo Gal, a previous employee at the Israel Meteorology Service. Both maximum and minimum temperatures have risen compared to the previous decadal averages, which is why what feels like a relatively cool night still requires an air conditioner.

Dr. James Hansen attributes the rise in global temperatures to at least two factors: our elevated greenhouse gases and a reduction in aerosol concentrations. Hence, the irony: environmental regulations have created more “clear,” “clean” air, but the clear and clean air allows greater amounts of sunshine to warm the earth.

Some have attributed last year’s warming to the Tonga Eruption. The Tonga eruption, which spewed huge amounts of Sulfur Dioxide and water vapor, is actually claimed to have a negative effect on global temperatures, although the water vapor itself may have enhanced flooding in certain locations. In fact, water vapor in the stratosphere which would enhance global warming was counteracted by the aerosol effect.

Dr. Hansen also points out that we’ve probably reached our global temperature peak. Global temperatures are expected to fall slightly, perhaps for the next few years.  One reason is that we’re moving from an El-Nino to La-Nina ocean circulation pattern. The latter will reduce the transfer of heat from the oceans into the atmosphere. However, global warming has accelerated from about 0.18 degrees Celsius per decade pre year 2000 to 0.32 degrees Celsius since 2010. So, there is only so much the “natural” cycles of ocean and atmosphere can do to cool the world.

In regard to our weather for the first couple of weeks of September: delightful, just right. We’ve finally shaken off that extended heat wave. Perhaps the short respite will give humankind a chance to reflect and seek new or renew sources of non-greenhouse producing energy, such as nuclear power. These nuclear power plants are a more reliable source of energy than solar and/or wind power.

Last night my daughter asked me when I would like the bad news. Now or after I finish dinner. I didn’t expect her to say that my Uncle Danny passed away at the age of 90+.  My Uncle Danny was head of strategic planning at Eastern Airlines for many years. He had a photographic memory, which used to irritate my Mom because it’s much easier to study (or not) for tests when the book is in your head.

But, that’s not what I remember about Uncle Danny. He and his family used to visit from Florida when I was a kid, and that was the time we had smoked Salmon and Trout on bagels for breakfast. But, of course, it wasn’t just the food, Uncle Danny really enjoyed voicing his opinion, and sometimes he had multiple opinions about the same subject. Who could refuse when he offered sage advice with a smile?

He also had a real sense of fairness. I went to visit them once (by myself) and they took me to a Kosher restaurant. The next evening, he said: last night we accommodated you, so now it is time to accommodate us.

When I was married some years ago, he and my Aunt Joyce were in Europe touring, so they missed our wedding. I can’t remember if I saw them at my father’s 80th birthday party, and I always had in mind to try to visit on one of my trips to New York to see family. I was hoping to see both my Uncle and Aunt in New York this Thanksgiving.

But, then as often happens, one finds it’s too late.