Who Will Win? The Base With the Most Intensity

Sometimes it is hard to remember who the US elects as president, has implications for those around the world, especially in Tel Aviv or Kyiv.

With polls tied, political analysts often say that the outcome of this election will come down to ground game and Get Out The Vote (GOTV) efforts. But I believe it’s ultimately about the intensity of commitment from each candidate’s supporters. Which base has the stronger drive to show up and make their voices heard? History suggests that intensity often makes the difference, especially in tight races.

Let’s draw a parallel with sports. Consider the 2007 New England Patriots, who went into the Super Bowl with an undefeated 18–0 record, only to lose in a major upset to the New York Giants. Despite their reputation as possibly the greatest team in NFL history, the Patriots couldn’t match the Giants’ intensity. As Randy Moss, a star player on that Patriots team, said, “We just couldn’t match their intensity.” Similarly, basketball legend Larry Bird famously warned, “Never underestimate the power of a player’s will to win.”

Look back at past elections to see how enthusiasm has shifted results. In 2008, Barack Obama’s campaign made history not only because of his background but also due to the overwhelming support from young and minority voters who turned out in unprecedented numbers. It wasn’t just a choice to vote for him; for many, it was an imperative—a chance to make history and push for change. This enthusiasm didn’t just help Obama win; it solidified a base that would remain engaged in politics for years to come. In contrast, low enthusiasm can hurt even well-funded campaigns. In 2016, Hillary Clinton’s campaign failed to inspire the same level of passion among certain demographics, leading to lower turnout in key states. This intensity gap was part of what allowed Donald Trump’s energized base to secure his surprising victory.

These examples illustrate the central role of voter commitment in American elections. But it’s not just a matter of showing up; it’s about a deep, almost personal commitment to a candidate or cause. When supporters feel driven by a mission or a sense of urgency, they are more likely to volunteer, to encourage others to vote, and to follow through on election day. This intensity can be the deciding factor, especially in battleground states where even a small shift in turnout can sway the result.

Polling and survey data also support the argument that voter enthusiasm is a powerful indicator of potential outcomes. In recent elections, data from organizations like Pew Research Center and Gallup has shown that high voter enthusiasm correlates with increased turnout, which can decisively impact close races. For example, in the 2020 election, surveys found that voters for both parties reported record levels of enthusiasm. This high intensity led to the highest voter turnout in a century, highlighting the power of committed bases.

In the current election, early data suggests a similar pattern: voters on both sides feel strongly about their candidates. But the question remains—whose base is more committed? If more voters are motivated to prevent another Trump presidency or to make Kamala Harris the first Black woman president, her side may have the edge. Alternatively, if Trump’s supporters remain as intensely driven as they were in 2016, they could surprise pollsters once again.

So, who will win? It may come down to a contest of wills and the intensity of the people behind each candidate. While traditional campaign efforts like GOTV are important, they are most effective when supporters are passionately engaged. Ultimately, this election may not be decided by who has the most ads or endorsements but by who has the most dedicated and energized base.

What do you think? Soon, we will find out.