Why Are We Still in Gaza

Israel responded to Hamas’s October 7th attack by going to war against Hamas. It felt that October 7th had proved it had to dismantle Hamas in order to fulfill its basic obligation as a state to protect its citizens’ safety.

The goal of defeating Hamas however, is in fact composed of two sub-goals: 1. Defeat Hamas’s military force 2. Ensure that Hamas is no longer governing Gaza, by setting up a new governing force.

Goal 1, defeating Hamas militarily, has already been accomplished, according to the IDF. The IDF  believes that it has defeated Hamas’s military, such that it is no longer an effective organized fighting force.

That does not mean that there is no single Hamas terrorist left. Although Hamas is no longer an army, the way it was before October 7th, organized into effective battalions that could invade Israel and kill and kidnap civilians, it still does have pockets of guerrilla cells. But the military does not deem these cells a substantial military threat. As a matter of fact, some top military officials assess that a military presence in Gaza is no longer necessary.

If Israel pulled out of Gaza today, it would pull out having militarily defeated Hamas. But this would not feel like a victory. Why? Because we have not completed goal number 2: Displacing Hamas as the rulers of Gaza by installing an alternate government.

This goal cannot be achieved by military force. The military can (and did) create the conditions such that it is possible to install a new government, but it cannot install a new government in Gaza on its own. It needs the Israeli government to direct it, and to instruct it on who to hand over governing power to.

In other words, the second goal can only be achieved by policy. The government needs to decide on a policy of who it is installing in Hamas’s stead – the Palestinian Authority? An international stewardship spearheaded by Arab countries? The Israeli Army as an occupying government force? – in order to ensure that Gaza is governed by a power other than Hamas. Until then, Hamas remains the de facto ruler of Gaza.

This leaves two questions: 1. If the Israeli military deems that Hamas has been militarily defeated such that a military presence in Gaza is no longer necessary, why is the IDF still in Gaza? 2. If the second goal of the war can only be achieved through government policy regarding who will rule in Hamas’s stead, why is the government refraining from formulating a policy?

The most obvious answer to this question is that Bibi’s future as Prime Minister is dependent on the war’s continuation. For the war to continue, Israel must a) maintain a military presence in Gaza and b) refrain from formulating a policy regarding who will rule in Hamas’s stead, since implementing such a policy would mean achieving the war aim of replacing Hamas as the government of Gaza -thereby heralding the war’s end.

In his outgoing remarks to hostage families, Yoav Gallant, the outgoing defense minister, essentially said as much, claiming that despite the military’s assessment that an IDF presence in Gaza was no longer necessary, Bibi was insisting on maintaining a military presence there due to political considerations.

This revelation is even more troubling given that Bibi’s insistence on red lines about maintaining an Israeli military presence and in some cases, about where exactly that presence must be (such as the Philadelphi Corridor), have at times been a major hold-up in hostage deal negotiations. In fact, Bibi has been accused by hostage deal negotiators and intelligence officials of sabotaging negotiations on numerous occasions.

A hostage deal negotiation, culminating in the release of Israeli captives held by Hamas, would be seen by the majority of the country as a major victory, since most see the return of Israeli captives as a primary war aim. As such, it could signify the end of the war — and thereby, of Bibi’s time as prime minister.

When Bibi’s actions are seen through this lens, these three things: maintaining military presence in Gaza even when no longer necessary, refusing to appoint a new government to replace Hamas in Gaza (thereby defeating Hamas politically), and disrupting negotiations to return home Israeli captives — are all part of a larger piece: keeping the war going as long as possible, in order to remain prime minister.

If indeed, it is political considerations that are a primary motivator in the Gaza war’s continuation, that is a violation of all the soldiers who are risking their lives there. If indeed, it is a motivation in sabotaging a potential hostage exchange deal, it is an act of unimaginable cruelty to the hostages and their families. Furthermore, refusing to install a new government in Gaza, which would allow the war to achieve its aims of defeating Hamas both as a military force and as a governing force, is a desecration of the deaths of all the soldiers who already gave their lives so that Israel could do precisely that.

The Israeli people deserve better. Our defense minister has just been fired, shattering the illusion that a change in government during wartime is impossible. It is time for us now to insist on elections, so that we can have the opportunity to choose leaders who want to achieve a victory, instead of a government that wants to prolong the war indefinitely.