Why Israel Is Still Waiting for Iran’s Revenge

In light of recent events, there has been heightened global attention directed toward the Middle East, particularly the escalating tensions involving Israel, Iran, and their respective allies. Despite prior announcements of a substantial attack by Iran or Hezbollah against Israel, such an event has not transpired.

There was widespread anticipation of an imminent Iranian attack on Israel in response to the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. However, despite explicit threats from Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, no such attack has occurred. The reasons behind this apparent hesitation are multifaceted and warrant thorough examination.

Nasrallah has conveyed that the delay in the attack is part of a psychological strategy designed to keep the Israeli population under constant pressure and fear. However, Israel’s recent actions and communications have diminished the efficacy of this tactic. For instance, Israeli jets flying over Beirut before one of Nasrallah’s addresses resulted in a breach of the sound barrier and induced panic among the local population, thereby showcasing Israel’s preparedness to promptly counter any aggression.

Furthermore, Iranian claims about their “right to self-defense” seem questionable, considering that the Hamas leader who was neutralized was not Iranian, and the Israeli strike did not aim at any Iranian interests. As a result, many analysts perceive any possible Iranian retaliation not as self-defense, but as an act of revenge.

Against this backdrop, the recent visit of Russian General Sergey Shoigu to Iran has been perceived as an effort by Russia to temper Iran’s potential response. There is speculation that Shoigu counseled Iranian leaders to refrain from actions that could prompt a devastating Israeli retaliation, including strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities and other strategic assets.

Russia’s involvement assumes particular significance in light of its reliance on Iran for the production of drones employed in its conflict in Ukraine. A hypothetical Israeli offensive that incapacitates Iran’s military capabilities would have detrimental repercussions for Russia, which depends on this support to sustain its endeavors in Ukraine.

Israel has demonstrated substantial deterrence capabilities. Recent measures, such as the elimination of key Hamas and Hezbollah figures and preparations for a preemptive strike upon detecting indications of major aggression, underscore Israel’s willingness to take decisive action to safeguard its security.

Historically, Israel has executed preemptive strikes to nullify threats before they materialize, as exemplified by the swift and resolute offensive during the Six-Day War in 1967, which thwarted the plans of the Arab League. Presently, Israel may be contemplating analogous options if the situation in Iran and Lebanon continues to escalate.

Despite Iran’s bellicose rhetoric, international pressure, particularly from the United States and Saudi Arabia, has sought to restrain Iran’s potential actions. Nonetheless, the international community appears more focused on averting an escalation without expressly condemning Iran’s actions, signaling a contrast with the immediate responses often demanded of Israel under similar circumstances.

The Middle East conflict remains extremely unstable, with many different factors that could change the course of events at any time. Although Iran and Hezbollah have made serious threats, they understand the significant risks of openly fighting against Israel. Due to Israel’s recent actions, global pressure, and Russian influence, Iran and Hezbollah have been careful so far, avoiding a full-blown war.

Nevertheless, the situation remains fraught, and any misstep could precipitate an unforeseeable escalation. In the interim, Israel remains vigilant and primed to counter any threat with requisite force to ensure its security and stability in the region.