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Sergio Restelli

Will China’s steps at resetting its Israel strategy work?

On January 16, 2025, Special Envoy Zhai Jun of the Chinese Government on the Middle East Issue visited Israel, meeting with senior officials, including Israel’s Director-General of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Eden Bar-Tal, Deputy Director-General for Asia and the Pacific Aviv Ezra, and Deputy Director-General for the Middle East Oded Joseph. Discussions encompassed bilateral relations, the Gaza ceasefire, and broader Middle Eastern concerns. This visit reflects China’s recalibration of its policies toward Israel on the eve of an incoming Trump 2.0 administration.

China’s Historical Support for Palestinian Groups and the Beijing Declaration

China’s involvement in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict dates back decades. Historically, China supported Palestinian groups as part of its broader alignment with liberation movements in the Global South during the Cold War. This support, however, has shifted in recent years as Beijing sought to balance its ties with both Israel and Palestine. The 2022 Beijing Declaration however marked a significant milestone, emphasizing China’s endorsement of the two-State solution while reiterating its historical solidarity with the Palestinian cause. It also called for an end to violence and a fair resolution based on international law.

The 2024 Palestinian Beijing Unity Declaration was a significant diplomatic shift aimed at fostering reconciliation among Palestinian factions while ignoring Israel’s security concerns. Hosted by China in Beijing, the declaration resulted from a series of mediated talks facilitated by Chinese officials, marking Beijing’s attempt at a growing role as a mediator in Middle Eastern diplomacy while supporting vassal states such as Iran which are heavily dependant on the people’s republic.

The declaration brought together representatives from major Palestinian factions including terrorist groups, including Fatah, Hamas, and Islamic Jihad, in an effort to address longstanding divisions and establish a unified Palestinian political framework. The summit underscored China’s commitment to supporting the Palestinian cause while trying to portray itself as a champion of the Palestinian cause without addressing the Hamas terrorist attack of October 7th or Israeli hostages held by Hamas. The Chinese effort also did not attempt at pulling back Iran, with whom China has gathered influence, while it openly supported violence against Israel using its proxies such as Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis.

Over the past months, as global geopolitical events have demonstrated Russia’s weakness in the Middle East, China has tried to reset its Israel policy with more neutral language and attempting a reconciliation with a middle ground in the conflict. It has called for an immediate ceasefire during escalations in Gaza, urging the protection of civilians and providing humanitarian aid. Its tries and explains its stance as rooted in its broader objective of fostering stability in the Middle East while expanding its influence as a global peace broker.

Recalibration of China’s Israel Policy

Toward the end of the Biden administration, China’s policy toward Israel underwent notable recalibration. Initially, Beijing had prioritized partnerships with Palestinian groups, but its Russia’s weaking in the middle east, Iran’s inability to hold its offensive against Israel, its strategic potential losses to its economic interests and technological collaborations with Israel has now led to a more nuanced approach. An imminent Trump administration which will stand up to China has also brought about the necessity to change its strategy. By deepening cooperation in innovation and trade, China sought to strengthen bilateral ties with Israel.

Zhai Jun’s recent visit highlighted this new reser. During discussions, Zhai underscored the complementary nature of China-Israel cooperation and reaffirmed Beijing’s commitment to stable and mutually beneficial relations. He welcomed the recently brokered Gaza ceasefire, urging its full implementation, including the safe release of hostages and prisoners. Zhai emphasized that the ceasefire could serve as a foundation for easing regional tensions and advancing a political resolution based on the two-State solution.

The Gaza Ceasefire and China’s Role

The ceasefire agreement, reached through mediation by Qatar, Egypt, and the United States, comprises a phased plan. China has actively supported the ceasefire, with its Ministry of Foreign Affairs pledging humanitarian assistance and post-conflict reconstruction aid to Gaza.

Beijing’s engagement, including its recent endorsement of the Gaza ceasefire, signals its need to distance itself from its previous pro-Iran, pro-Syria and pro-Palestinian approach before the new administration is sworn it. This also demonstrates its nervousness that the Trump administration may render it irrelevant in the middle east. Zhai Jun’s visit was a first step in what could follow with months of attempts at trying to reconfigure its Israel approach. Question is if Israel is ready to forgive and forget China’s blatant betrayal at its hour of need.

About the Author
Sergio Restelli is an Italian political advisor, author and geopolitical expert. He served in the Craxi government in the 1990's as the special assistant to the deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Justice Martelli and worked closely with anti-mafia magistrates Falcone and Borsellino. Over the past decades he has been involved in peace building and diplomacy efforts in the Middle East and North Africa. He has written for Geopolitica and several Italian online and print media. In 2020 his first fiction "Napoli sta bene" was published.
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