8 Days to Elections: President Herzog Will Cast the Deciding Vote  

If the polls are anywhere near accurate, the Israeli parliamentary elections next week will not result in a dramatic winner but will most likely end up with two major parties, each with about the same number of Knesset mandates.

Of course, as often happens, the polls can be wrong.  For the most part, they are conducted by telephone, which has a built-in error mechanism.  First of all, in this country, many people who are called but do not recognize the calling number simply do not answer.  Secondly, if people are like me, they answer but as soon as they hear the recorded message beginning, they hang up. In addition, not everyone who is polled shares what they actually believe with the pollster.

Finally, there remains 2% of the population without any telephones as well as 10% to 20% of adults who rely on a basic “ordinary” cellphone (often a “kosher phone” without internet capabilities, which is heavily utilized within the Ultra-Orthodox Haredi community). All of this makes accurate polling here quite challenging.

For the purpose of this discussion, I will assume that the vote will end up with more or less an equal number of mandates for each of the two largest parties.

Regardless of how the election turns out, it is then up to the President of Israel. Yitzchak Herzog, to invite someone to try to form a government. By law, the President is not obligated to ask the leader of the party with the highest number of mandates to do so.

For example, after the 2021 election the President asked Naftali Bennett to form the government, even though his party had just 6 mandates out of 120.  But the president had the sense that Bennett could succeed in doing so, and his hunch was correct.

During the time allotted to the President to make his decision, he will normally interview representatives of all the major political factions in the country to help him decide who has the best chance to succeed in forming a government ruling coalition. Based on the interviews and his judgement, he then asks one person to work on forming the new governing coalition.

It is most probable, therefore, that after the current elections are over, the decision of who will head the next government will be very much dependent on the judgement of President Herzog along with the capability of the person to whom he conveys the invitation to actually put together a coalition of at least 61 members.

There is always, of course, the possibility of forming a coalition that does not include a majority of the members of the Knesset. Nothing in the law prevents that.  However, governments here have enough of a challenge running the country when they have a majority without trying to do so from a minority position as well.

Based on his recent remarks at a Yedioth Ahronoth conference held on October 11^th, I believe and hope that the President will do the right thing.  At that time he said he “will do everything in my power to prevent repeat elections and help form a stable government following Israel’s upcoming October 27, 2026 elections.”  He also emphasized that Israel’s “national challenges are enormous” and the country cannot afford to cycle through repeated elections and prolonged political deadlock.

While everyone here understands that the role of the President of Israel is apolitical, there are times in our history that, within the confines of the law, the President is tasked with making decisions that very much impact the future of the country and even the continued existence of the Zionist enterprise.

The upcoming elections may very well place him in the position of basically casting the deciding vote which will chart the path of Israel for the coming years.

As a suggestion, perhaps the President should follow Moses’ father in law Jethro’s advice found in Exodus 18:21, when he said a leader must possess four foundational traits and they must be:

• Anshei Hayil (Men/Women of Valor): Have the courage, capability, and strength of character to make tough decisions.
• Yirei Elohim (God Fearing): Have a deep moral accountability to a higher standard of right and wrong.
• Anshei Emet (Men/Women of Truth): Must be honest, transparent, and have a commitment to justice.
• Sonei Betza (Haters of Ill-Gotten Gain): Demonstrate Integrity regarding money, meaning they are incorruptible and immune to bribery.

I trust and hope that he will do the right thing and make the choice that will be in the best interests of the good and welfare of the State of Israel. May it be so.