A Flipped U.S. Congress Means Change for Israeli Foreign Policy

With the widespread Democratic House and Senate victories across the country, the United States will find itself at a foreign policy crossroads come January 3rd. Amongst the other issues that a divided Washington, D.C., will encounter, the nation’s relations with Israel will certainly be a point of tension between Republican President Trump and a Democratic-majority Congress. 

Likely a last-ditch attempt to win over voters on the issues of Israel, Trump announced on Election Day that American aid to Jerusalem would be ending promptly after talks with his Israeli counterparts. 

Any reinstatement of military aid to Israel will surely struggle to pass the House in this cycle. Even worse for Israel, as a result, it is going to lose the support of its largest and most powerful ally, creating a dangerous precedent for peace in the region. 

American Middle East policy is simply going to change the balance of power in the region. With no America to buck-pass Iran and Islamist terror groups to, Israel will be compelled to confront and resolve these threats alone. Its foreign enemies see what’s happening and what’s occurred in the United States – a coalesced, progressive reckoning where the far-right anti-Israel constituents joined forces with typical and far-left Democrats to defeat Trump’s control at the helm of the ship.

Although Israel will continue to have a friend in the American chief executive, Trump alone is not enough. Senator-elect Abdul el-Sayed and Congresswoman-elect Avila Chevalier, both vehement critics of Israel, are the best examples of this fresh league of anti-Israel representatives who will be assuming office in just two months. 

For Israel itself, it will certainly face renewed threats once 2027 rolls around. Trump will be limited in his ability to wage war and provide support at the hands of a divided legislative branch. Israel’s best plan of action to counter the major foreign policy shift will be to adjust its military and intelligence proactively. The Jewish state must be prepared to become self-sufficient with its national security. 

Despite a recent Israeli election and intense divisiveness between current Prime Minister Netanyahu and the centrist opposition led by Gadi Eisenkot, foreign policy stalwarts will remain – strengthened Israeli military and intelligence agencies will ultimately be able to fill the security void of a possibly withdrawn America. 

Israel has been entering a transitory phase in the context of its security self-sustainment, although perhaps overshadowed by a hotly contested Knesset election and the formation of a new Eisenkot-led government. The country’s foreign policy, in so doing, must be similar to the era of Prime Minister Levi Eshkol and his 1967 Six-Day War response, which Israel won militarily on its own, largely independent of support from the White House. 

America is not out of the equation, but it’s going to be silenced from within. Israel has yet to quell conflict with Hezbollah and the Houthis amidst an increasingly volatile region. Trump has his own Middle East issues to resolve, particularly with Iran, and that endeavor, too, will certainly be affected by the new congressional plurality.  

An unanswered question for the United States is the extent to which congressional power supersedes presidential power in foreign policy. Often the commander-in-chief is viewed as the captain of the international affairs ship, but a mutinous crew changes that. 

And will Israel face domestic tumult concurrently with a reduction in U.S. support? Surely, but this is not uncommon, as whatever coalition of parties that will ultimately control the Knesset all understand that Washington’s promises of military and financial support were never permanent; President Obama’s $38 billion 2016 Memorandum of Understanding, which Trump now intends to end, served its purpose and helped Israel’s Gaza operations post-October 7th. 

In Israel’s best interest, this theory should hopefully prove to be wrong. For the U.S., a strong relationship with its ultimate Middle East ally helps ensure American security interests in the region. Ultimately, the next two years will define the next century of foreign affairs, Israeli policy, and American power.

 Heed caution.