A Mirror of Europe’s Changing Demography

These days, there is discussion in Germany and Britain about banning the film “Citizen Vigilante” and Elon Musk making the film available on X. “Citizen Vigilante” is an action film by Armie Hammer that focuses on the immigration-specific Muslim crisis in Europe, crime rates, and the perceived failure of the justice system. The film deals with crimes against women and ‘grooming gangs’ committed by migrants in Europe. The film’s protagonist takes the law into his own hands, frustrated with a system that is soft on migrants’ crimes, especially sexual assault.

In Europe, concerns over serious crimes related to Muslim migrants and refugees, women’s safety, illegal migration and changing demographics are no longer just a matter of law and order. They have become complex questions of public policy and national security. In such a situation, there is a need to understand this topic in a broader perspective.

The question of migration and shelter in Europe is not new. In 2015, when millions of people moved to Europe from the Syrian civil war, Germany’s then Chancellor Angela Merkel said, “We will handle it.” This was not only a political statement, but also a symbol of the liberal democratic identity of Europe at that time. Believing in the ideals of human rights, asylum and multicultural society, Europe opened its doors to millions of displaced people. But almost a decade later, Europe is asking itself whether its immigration policy has struck a balance between social integration and public security. This question is not only of politics, but also of public policy, social trust, civil security as well as women’s and children’s safety.

Official statistics from European countries show that there has been a significant increase in recorded rape cases in the last two decades. About 8,593 cases were reported in England and Wales in the year 2000, which increased to 68,109 by 2023. The number in Germany rose by 8,133 to 39,029, while in France the number increased by almost 7,500 to 42,400 recorded cases. In contrast, the number of cases reported in Poland decreased from 2,399 to approximately 1,127. There were approximately 1.28 million people of Syrian origin living in Germany by 2023, becoming the largest Syrian migrant community in Europe after the 2015 refugee crisis. According to the 2021 census, there are about 16.4 lakh people of Pakistani origin and about 6.5 lakh people of Bangladeshi origin living in the United Kingdom, while the number of people of Syrian origin is about 50 thousand. About 60–70 thousand Syrians, about 29 thousand Pakistanis and 30–40 thousand people of Bangladeshi origin live in France. On the other hand, the number of these three communities in Poland is relatively small. Only about 1–2 thousand people of Syrian origin, about 1,300 of Pakistani origin and a few thousand of Bangladeshi origin live there. It is clear from these figures that the expansion of Islamic migration from Asia and West Asia to the countries of Western Europe has been remarkable.

In the last two decades, the United Kingdom, Germany and France expanded the legal definition of rape, replaced the concept of ‘coercion’ with ‘consent’ and made the police recording system more sensitive. The trend of women filing complaints also increased after the “MeToo” movement, which may be one reason for the increase in recorded cases. Better reporting may also be the reason. But this also does not mean that the questions of social integration and crimes against women should be completely ignored.

It is in this context that the “Grooming Gang” cases have given rise to widespread debate. An independent investigation found approximately 1,400 children were sexually abused in Rotherham, United Kingdom (1997–2013). Later cases of organized sexual exploitation also came to light in cities such as Rochdale, Telford, Oxford, Newcastle and Oldham. The “Cassie Review 2025” reports that nationally available data is incomplete and inconsistent, with UK institutions and authorities neglecting child sexual exploitation cases. The review also said that the perpetrators were found to have a higher proportion of Islamic men of Pakistani origin.

Another important dimension of migration is its economic impact. Over the past decade, European countries have spent heavily on refugee resettlement, housing, social protection, language-training and integration programs. Germany spent approximately ₹18–19 lakh crore on these items between 2015–2024, while its combined government expenditure in 2016 alone stood at €23 billion. The United Kingdom spent more than £4.7 billion on asylum-seeker accommodation and the asylum system in 2023–24, while France earmarked €2.4 billion for asylum, immigration control and integration in its 2024 budget.  Poland’s expenditure, on the other hand, remained relatively low, as it received far fewer asylum-seekers than Western Europe after 2015, although its public expenditure on humanitarian aid increased significantly after 2022 due to the Ukraine war. This is where the most important policy question arises. In a democratic society, the responsibility of crime cannot be placed on an entire community or nationality. But if rapid demographic change, weak social integration, and state institutional failures occur simultaneously, studying the social tensions they generate is neither racism nor hatred, but an essential need for evidence-based public policy.

Unfortunately, Europe’s public discourse often suffers from political polarization rather than facts. Right-wing parties see the solution to every problem in closing borders, while liberal politics often avoids open debate on difficult questions related to migration. As a result, real issues like women’s safety, social integration of migrants, crime prevention and effective enforcement of law get buried amidst political slogans. India also needs to learn from the experience of Europe. India is not yet a major destination for large-scale refugee migration, yet questions of illegal migration, border management, citizen identification and demographic verification pose serious policy challenges. From time to time, controversies have come up in various states regarding fake identity cards, fake Aadhaar, alleged irregularities in the voter list, identification of illegal immigrants from across the border and authenticity of citizenship documents. If the citizen identification system is not strengthened, its impact will not only be limited to national security but will also affect welfare schemes, credibility of voter lists, distribution of resources and citizens’ trust in public institutions. Therefore, the challenge for India is not just to monitor the border, but to develop a transparent, digital and reliable citizen identification system in which the rights of genuine citizens are protected and there is no room for illegal documents or identity fraud.