Avi Nofech
"democracy and free trade are the only way to peace"

A Nightmare Scenario

One day in the future, Israel will be faced with the demand to grant equal rights to Palestinians living in Judea and Samaria.

The nations of the world will tell Israel: there is no two-state solution, so Israelis and Palestinians in fact live in the same country. But they do not have equal rights, which is what we call apartheid. And what we do with apartheid is this: we impose compulsory sanctions, until such time as there is majority rule. Majority rule means all people living in the country, Israelis and Palestinians, have the same right to vote.

Israelis understand that this would be the end of Israel, because Israel is first and foremost a Jewish country. Israelis will decide: we have to give up the territories, so as to keep Israel’s existence as a smaller, but Jewish country.

But the believers in the Whole Land of Israel will not agree. They will say: “You cannot give up what God gave you!” They will call the cautious Israelis apostates, capos, cats as in the Maus cartoon. All the weapons that were given settlers for self protection, will be used in a civil war.

The passions will rise higher and higher, because God’s will is involved and one cannot go against God. What happened next was described by Josephus Flavius, who chose to surrender rather than die.

What is the use of nightmare scenarios? There was the book “The Wreck of the Titan”, published in 1898. It featured a fictional British ocean liner Titan that sinks in the North Atlantic after striking an iceberg. Managers of White Star Lines should have read this book, but they didn’t.

Another example of a nightmare scenario was the cover image of the magazine “United States Naval Institute News”. It showed a US aircraft carrier after being struck by DF-21, a Chinese long range ballistic anti-ship missile. The aircraft on the deck are burning, there is fire and smoke everywhere.

But what happened later was good! The US defense industry developed the interceptor missile against the DF-21. Now US carriers in Western Pacific are already protected.

So here is what one can do or not do with nightmare scenarios. One can always say: “I sleep well and do not suffer from any nightmares”.

About the Author
I went to graduate school at the Hebrew University and since then worked as a lecturer in Canada and in Israel.