A Step Too Far

Following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismael Haniya in Tehran, just after the inauguration celebration of Iran’s new president, the wonder, admiration and brilliance of the scheme was widely hailed in Israel and abroad. Israel’s enemies were shocked, stunned and confused as to how such a sophisticated action could take place in the heart of Iran. This followed the successful attack in Beirut just hours before, killing Fu’ad Shukr, the chief of staff and second in command of Hizbollah under Nasrallah. Celebration and relief were felt in Israel – another Hezbollah leader was taken out. Israel was at last gaining momentum in weakening Hezbollah, which had, under Shukr, recently killed 12 innocent Israeli Druze children in Majdal Shams, and many Israeli citizens in the north of Israel in the months and weeks before. 

However, the assassination in Iran is, I believe, a cause for concern. A leading Israeli  Arabist analyst outlined the problematic nature of the particular action against Haniyeh. There are several matters that are now a cause for worry and concern in Israel. The major problem that arises here is rooted in the culture of the Levant. Nasrallah made this clear in his speech following these events, however Israeli Arabists and experts in the field had similar input: This execution on Iranian soil is a massive insult:, the execution of Haniyeh just after the national celebration of Iran’s new president, with Haniyeh as a guest of honor, runs deep and creates national rage and a powerful cause for revenge. 

The other matter to consider is that Haniyeh was the chief negotiator in ending the war in Gaza, and thus the release of the hostages held by Hamas. Now that he is no longer alive, who is the key decision maker on the Hamas side? If there was some indication of a process, at this time there is none. 

Let me say in advance, that it is my belief that our enemies are not all fools, as some may think. The very sophistication, secrecy and surprise of the attack against Israel on October 7 2023, was in itself devastating. It is clearly common knowledge that Israel’s leadership, both military and political, had let their guard down, indeed carelessly and negligently. My assumption therefore, is that the small state nation that has until recently been brilliant in defense, science, creativity and wise leadership, has been compromised by unwise leadership, arrogance and self-satisfaction which led to poor decision-making and weak rather than sharp acuity from government all the way to defense. 

My view is thus a series of “Don’ts”, Biden style, are now needed to be taken into consideration as ordinary citizens. 

• If you think that Iran does not have agents on the ground right here in Israel, who can do damage and undermine the state, Don’t! The Iranians are neither dumb nor unsophisticated. 
• If you think your safe room is safe, Dont! Nothing at all may happen, yet something may happen so stock up, fit it out and fix it up. We cannot know where, when and by what means, (or if at all) our enemies in Lebanon, Iran, and Yemen have in stall.           
• If you think that our leadership will navigate the current crisis into safe waters, Don’t! Because when renovations to a swimming pool become a major issue after the greatest failure in Israel’s defense in history, something is terribly wrong. Leadership will clearly need allies, alliances, change and wiser men and women than the current batch.
• If you think that the Knesset will wisen up and it’s members will do their jobs, Don’t! They are about to take a 3 month break (“pagrah” in Hebrew). Yes, it is unbelievable. 
• If you or your friends and relatives lived peacefully in the North of Israel and are now exiled to the Center and South and you believe that leadership will find a solution in the near future, Dont! Figure out something on your own – we, citizens, do not have any time-frame for the end of this crisis.

And if you believe that this crisis will come to an end, all I can say is what intuition tells me despite the obstacles: It will.