Aftershocks of October 7 in the Middle East

The attacks on October 7 sent shockwaves throughout the Middle East, leaving the region in the midst of profound transformations. Hamas has been dismantled as a fighting force, Hezbollah has suffered devastating losses in its leadership, and the Assad regime has fallen in Syria. These monumental events have reshaped the regional landscape, yet the reverberations are far from over.

Yemen, once considered a peripheral concern, has emerged as a major battlefield. Bolstered by Iranian support, the Houthis have launched hundreds of missiles and drones targeting Israel, posing threats to both regional stability and international shipping through the Red Sea. In response, Israel has conducted airstrikes against Yemeni ports and Houthi-controlled infrastructure, though sustaining such operations presents significant logistical challenges.

The Houthis’ resilience, honed through years of conflict with Saudi Arabia, complicates Israel’s efforts to neutralize the group. Additionally, targeting the Houthis’ supply lines risks worsening Yemen’s dire humanitarian crisis, where millions rely on imports passing through the same ports used for smuggling weapons. Escalation in Yemen could destabilize neighboring Saudi Arabia, with far-reaching consequences for global energy markets.

If Yemen represents an aftershock, Iran remains the epicenter of the broader conflict. Since October 7, Israel has framed its actions as part of a larger struggle against Tehran’s regional ambitions. While Iran’s proxies have faced significant defeats, the regime itself remains a formidable threat, particularly as it accelerates its nuclear program.

With Iran potentially weeks away from achieving nuclear weapons capability, tensions with both Israel and the United States have reached a boiling point. The incoming Trump administration’s proposed maximum pressure sanctions may not act swiftly enough to halt a nuclear breakout, raising the possibility of military action with unpredictable consequences for the region and beyond.

In Syria, the collapse of the Assad regime has triggered political turmoil, with the Alawite minority clashing with the new Sunni leadership. Renewed fighting between Turkish-backed forces and the Kurds in northern Syria risks spilling into Iraq, while the potential resurgence of the Islamic State poses a global threat. Thousands of ISIS prisoners held by Kurdish forces could be freed, destabilizing the region and reigniting international terrorism.

The incoming Trump administration faces a familiar challenge: balancing the desire to pivot away from the Middle East with the reality of the region’s enduring volatility. Disengagement carries significant risks, including continued Houthi attacks, Iran’s nuclear escalation, and the reemergence of jihadist groups.

The Middle East remains a region fraught with unresolved conflicts and shifting alliances. Like aftershocks from an earthquake, the consequences of October 7 cannot be prevented but must be managed. The U.S. and its allies must navigate these challenges with strategies that address both immediate security needs and long-term stability, recognizing that the region’s turbulence cannot be resolved with simple declarations of intent.