And It Shall Come To Pass

Prophesy is a risky business, especially in the Middle East——-always has been, always will be.

It’s also highly risky to depend on the whims and moods and visions of Donald Trump. He believes he can generate alternative realities. In a situation like the present these can sometimes prevail, at least temporarily. Bibi must now live with that reality as he must’ve known all along he’d have to.

Trump said Israel must immediately stop the bombing so the hostages can be released. Probably this means an immediate halt to further IDF advances into Gaza City although that is very dangerous for the soldiers who’ll be easy prey in static positions while, or if, all or some of the hostages are returned.

At that point the details of Trump’s plan will have to be worked out—-or not. They may just be blurred over and imposed by whatever group of actors he, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner conjure. And the IDF general staff will be pushing for a quick withdrawal to a perimeter inside the Gaza Strip where a long-lasting killing zone is being established to make another 10/7 next to impossible.

Bibi will lose influence on this process. Meanwhile, “aid” will begin to flow, to be organized by the UN in coordination with some Trump-imposed administration. At that point the war is over, more or less, and whatever happens will take years to understand.

That means Hamas will wriggle out of most of the demands and inferences in the plan such as giving up its weapons. Trump won’t care so long as he gets the credit and his chances of winning the Nobel Peace Prize improve.

All that will probably also mean the end of Bibi’s government and relatively quick elections. It also means that Hamas can claim the 10/7 pogrom featuring GoPro’ed rapes, mutilations and kidnappings of women, men, babies, mostly but not all civilians, mostly but not only Jews, was a success. This proudly Islamo-Nazi organization  survived the might and fury of the IDF, the world turned against Israel and Zionism and the Jews, a “Palestinian State” was recognized by everybody but the U.S., Germany Micronesia and a few such outliers, and if Palestinian elections are held the Islamo-Nazis win them.

Qatar also a big winner. They now have a U.S. defense pact. And more.

Of course, there are civilians in Gaza who’ll look around at the rubble and the corpses and silently question that victory. And the Iranians, Hizbollah and Asad in Moscow may have rethought the wisdom of Oct. 7. But Hamas will be able to claim victory and Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich will be the first to say so vehemently. Hamas, Ben Gvir and Smotrich have much in common.

Ben Gvir and Smotrich —— and even some Likudniks ——- will be biting at Bibi’s heels as they seek votes. The orthodox will step back. Just like after Yom Kippur in ’73 there’ll be an enormous reaction at the ballot box from the IDF reservists and their wives.

There’ll be demands for a commission of inquiry like the one after the Yom Kippur War, and this war having more or less ended, no reason to delay. How were Bibi and the Mossad and the Shin Bet kept in the dark? Were they? It’ll take years for the results but its creation will have an impact.

Bibi has returned from the political grave before. Yet it’s hard to see how he can now. The Right will be in shambles and he must table a budget for 2026 by the end of this month and pass it by the end of March. If not, automatic elections within 90 days.

He can’t pass a budget without the religious parties. They won’t support a budget without a new law formalizing the draft exemption of yeshiva students. Passing such a law means a collapse for the Likud in the elections. Even Likud people won’t support it.

So this brave prediction: Elections between the end of January and the end of June and Bibi finally retiring to devote himself to writing a best-selling autobiography.