Apathy is the enemy of democracy. Please vote!

Modern high-tech polling uses the latest techniques to ascertain everything from which dog food sells best to the outcome of elections. They use self-learning algorithms and AI to predict trends and outcomes from sampling across different groups. They have learnt to try and avoid bias and self-selection and echo chamber responses. They can and of course are manipulated to bring some form of statistical evidence to back up statements that  support outcomes and conclusions that may be desired by one group but may not be desirable for most of us.

There have probably been more words and articles written about the neck and neck race in the Israeli elections predicted by the polls than even the outcome of the US mid-terms, which will probably be challenged by the Trump and his acolytes, if the people decide differently from what they want them to decide.

If we are to believe the polls, then Netanyahu and his band of brothers are neck and neck with Eisenkot and Yashar. I sincerely hope that the polls are wrong. And wrong they have been many times – the most recent cases being Trump winning in 2016 when they predicted Hilary would win, and the now infamous Brexit vote. So why, I ask, do people still believe the polls and let them dictate their behaviour?

I prefer anecdotal evidence to polls. I arrived in Israel a few days ago and have been running around in taxis everywhere primarily to get somewhere but more importantly to get somewhere in terms of understanding what people think, feel and how they will vote. My global experience has taught me that taxi drivers listen to more news than anyone else, engage in more conversations with the public than anyone else and have a better feel of opinion than any pollster I have ever met . They are my reliable gauge of public opinion in any country in the world. Self-driving cabs a little less so!

I try to engage every taxi driver in my naïve open-ended conversation. “Very important elections are coming up”, I say. “Who do you think will win?” When I ask the Arab drivers they have mostly tried to avoid the question. I then turn it another way and get more prescriptive and even proscriptive. I think Bibi and his government are bad for Jews, Arabs and Israel,I suggest. They sense I may be onside and tend to nod in agreement and then I ask them who they will vote for. In most cases it’s an Arab party. “Good,” I say: “Vote for who you think is best for you and who will oppose Netanyahu.”

It’s both easier and harder with the Jewish taxi drivers. They never answer a question directly, instead I get a philosophical lecture but in short sentences, expletives and sometimes amusing stories. I understand, but who is the least bad for you? Do you want another four years of Bibi? Increasingly the answer seems to be no. They have had enough of him.

What I really like are the conspiracy stories. Let me tell you something my cousin’s friend’s uncle is a big shot in real estate in Florida and he tells me that Bibi’s wife Sara has been looking at properties in Florida and his brother’s son’s cat Kevin works in the State Department and he knows for sure that Bibi and Sara are moving to Florida after the elections and Trump is granting them full immunity from any legal process to extradite them. So, for sure he knows he’s lost.

Then there is the wonderful and mystic Ayin Hara (evil eye) response. The driver literally spits at the name Netanyahu and convulses as if spitting out a toxin if I add the names Ben Gvir and Smotrich. You need to spit metaphorically, but in some cases they do so literally to get to the magical number three with all three of them.

But what is truly terrifying to me are those who say “A plague on all of them. They are all liars and cheats, I am not voting for anyone.” Those who point to the polls and say nothing is going to change. Bibi will find a way to retain power.  It’s neck and neck etc., etc.

The point is that people believe the polls, but the polls are often wrong and the margin of error in a political system like Israel’s can make a material difference.

I am hoping that the polls are not considering me and if reports are to be believed, maybe up to one million people like me, who are unpolled, and are flying home to vote for the salvation of Israeli democracy; to vote against the move to a theocratic dictatorship; and to vote for politicians who may actually care more about the country than they do about their own selfish concerns. A caring politician may not be an oxymoron even in this sceptical world

I came not only to vote but to try and persuade others to vote. I spoke at a Yashar event and spoke at a financial conference and pleaded to all who would listen to vote for change for the sake of Israel and its Democracy.  It is my step-daughter’s birthday two days after the election. When asked by a friend, who had said that they weren’t going to vote, what she wanted for her birthday, she told him the only birthday present she wanted from him was that he go and vote against Bibi. Maybe you too will give my stepdaughter a birthday present?

I was in Menton in France a week ago and came across a small garden dedicated to the memory of Yitzhak Rabin. How can it be possible that we can allow in a democratic state people to hold ministerial roles who sympathise with the philosophy of his murderer?

My message to you is please ignore the polls. Every vote counts. To paraphrase Leo Amery, who in 1939 said to Neville Chamberlain, “Go for God’s sake, go.”

“Go for Israel’s sake, go and vote.” And try to persuade other like-minded people to do so too.