Bibi’s forever war
The UN Security Council’s recent decision to establish an international stabilization force for Gaza is the latest diplomatic win for Washington. Yet it resolves none of the core issues blocking the force’s deployment. The most consequential obstacle lies in Jerusalem. Without movement there, today’s interim arrangement — Israeli control over roughly half the Strip and Hamas control over the rest — risks hardening into a durable, deeply unstable reality. And that “durable” reality will be soaked in blood until it inevitably ignites another war.
Phase One completed, Phase Two paralyzed
With the return of the last three fallen Israeli hostages still pending, the first phase of Trump’s 20-Point Plan — ceasefire, hostage releases, partial IDF withdrawal, and expanded humanitarian aid — is nearly complete. However, the transition to Phase Two has stalled. That second phase, in which the deployment of a multinational force is supposed to enable the formation of a Hamas-free Palestinian civil administration, the disarmament of Hamas, further Israeli withdrawals, and the beginning of Gaza’s reconstruction, is stuck.
Significant strategic thinking was invested in the plan’s two substantive phases — particularly during President Biden’s final year in office. Culminating in the plan’s thick conceptual blueprint, it has since been summarized, Trump style, in his 20 Points. But almost no effort was devoted to the transition between the two phases. The assumption that momentum in the first phase would naturally lead to the second has been proven wrong.
Netanyahu’s veto, and its strategic cost
At the center of the impasse is Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s categorical veto on any role for the Palestinian Authority. The objection has nothing to do with Israeli national security concerns and everything to do with domestic politics and his coalition’s survival. It reflects, yet again, the subordination of Israeli national interests to the ideological whims of the government’s most extreme factions.
But for the countries expected to contribute troops to the stabilization force, a PA role — however symbolic — is deemed essential. Without it, the force will be portrayed at home, across the Arab and Muslim worlds, and within Gaza itself as a new occupying power: a foreign presence merely replacing Israeli control while advancing Israeli interests. In their view, only the PA can provide the legitimacy needed to frame the mission as supporting Palestinian governance, rather than supplanting it. Moreover, Arab and Muslim states see PA involvement in Gaza as a vital first step toward reuniting Gaza and the West Bank — an essential prerequisite for any credible two-state trajectory.
Without Arab participation, the force cannot be assembled. Without the force, Hamas will not begin disarmament; Israel will not continue withdrawing; reconstruction will not commence; and the current interim arrangement will calcify into permanence. That permanence will be violent.
It is time for Washington to end this farce
Yet, despite this reality, senior officials from Washington, Europe, and the Arab-Muslim coalition that Trump brought together continue to search for “creative formulas” to circumvent Jerusalem’s veto. Their efforts resemble diplomatic acrobatics more than strategy — attempts to placate a reckless veto that is fundamentally misaligned with Israel’s security needs and the interests of all other stakeholders.
Indeed, the United States possesses tools far stronger than creativity. Trump has repeatedly demonstrated his ability to pressure Netanyahu. Forcing him to accept the 20-Point Plan, to read a humiliating apology to the emir of Qatar, and to welcome a UN resolution referencing a pathway to Palestinian statehood are but the most recent examples. Likewise, when deemed important, the administration has shown no hesitation in bypassing Netanyahu entirely, even breaking with long-standing American policies, as seen in the meetings of Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, with Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya — one already held in Sharm el-Sheikh, another scheduled for Ankara.
Given President Trump’s personal investment in the plan that bears his name, the question is not whether he has the leverage to override Netanyahu’s veto. He does. The questions are: When will he decide it is necessary, and what course will he choose?
Trump’s three options
If Trump concludes that the veto is obstructing Phase Two and threatening the stability of Phase One, he faces three choices:
- Confront Netanyahu directly and compel the removal of the veto.
- Ignore the veto entirely and proceed with integrating the PA into the stabilization effort.
- Lose patience and disengage, leaving the situation to fester until another eruption forces renewed focus.
Each option carries risks. Only the third carries near-certainty, and its consequences are dire: renewed fighting, another re-occupation of Gaza, and an open-ended, bloody Israeli military presence with no exit strategy, undermining Israel’s security as well as regional and global standing while further destabilizing the region.
One hopes to wake one morning very soon to discover that US Envoy Steve Witkoff met with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and hammered out invitations to Arab and international contributors to send troops to the ISF, as well as the identity of the Palestinian general who would join the force’s command structure. Likewise, we could learn that Witkoff and Jared Kushner have once again attended an Israeli cabinet meeting to warn recalcitrant ministers that the US president’s patience has limits, especially when Israeli domestic politics obstruct a strategic initiative central to US regional goals.
Ultimately, the choice facing decision makers — above all in Washington — could not be clearer: Initiate diplomatic confrontation now, or deal with the resumption of fighting later.