Bringing Down the Iranian Regime

How should Israel respond to Iran launching 300 suicide drones and missiles at Israel?

It certainly has a huge arsenal of missiles capable of reaching Iran with devastating consequences.

According to non Israeli sources Israel’s Jericho-3 has a range of 4,800 km. The Israeli Navy’s German-made Dolphin submarines are capable of launching cruise missiles.

Israel could turn this attack around to push the long suffering Iranian people to overthrow its oppressive government.

By taking out the Iranian economic infrastructure Israel could cause Iran huge economic damage which is what the Iranian regime fears the most.

And with good reason. The only thing standing between the regime and a successful popular revolution is brute force in the form of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps and a different force called Basij that have suppressed previous mass protests. This is why Iran reacted so furiously to the killing of its IRGC general in Damascus. It was not because Israel had violated its embassy/ terrorist headquarters in Syria but because it owes the IRGC its full backing.

But if Iran has no money to pay these troops, cops, torturers, jailers, executioners and bomb makers because its economy is ruined these troops may themselves see where things are headed, no longer be loyal to the regime and refuse to fire on the protestors. While each successful revolution in history has been caused by events to it unique, in the end what each comes down to is will the people with the guns refuse to fire on their fellow citizens?

The strategy should be to defeat Iran, not militarily but by mobilizing its civilian population to do the work in furtherance of its own liberation.

So when President Biden called and urged Netanyahu not to retaliate with an accurately aimed barrage of missiles of its own, Israel’s intelligent answer should have been: “Sure-provided you reimpose serious economic sanctions, the kind that would have brought down the regime of Ayatollahs eight years ago if President Obama and you as his Vice president had not lifted them.”

Let us recall what happened in 2015. The Iranian regime, teetering on the brink of economic collapse, came on bended knee to Obama offering to halt its nuclear program if only he would lift the sanctions which were close to bringing down the Iranian regime. Obama, whose naivete, weakness, lack of understanding of history and uncanny ability to project American weakness abroad encouraged tyrants like Syria’s Assad, readily acceded and saved the US’s sworn enemy from collapse and overthrow.

Brilliant.

Biden is no more capable. In December 2023, i.e. two months after October 7^th, he unfroze $6b in Iranian assets.

Biden, however, would now agree to an Israeli demand that the US make it impossible for Iran to engage in commerce in the world in exchange for Israel’s forbearance on missile retaliation. His main concern is containing the latest Gaza war.

Will that happen? One has to remember that Biden is dealing Benjamin Netanyahu whose concern is not what is good for his country but what will keep his coalition government in power. So the call will ultimately be made by the fringe religious and right wing parties propping up his government.

These can usually be bought off with even vaster subsidies to permit ultra Orthodox men to study all day instead of has veshalom working for a living or helping their wives look after their thirteen kids and for yet more settlements in the West Bank. (Don’t misunderstand. The Talmud is like nothing else on Earth. I wish I could study it all day. Unfortunately, we have bills to pay.)

Biden and Netanyahu spoke as soon as the Iranian missiles were neutralized because Biden gets tired at night and has to go to bed early. Israel should appreciate that most of these drones and missiles were shot down by the militaries of other countries-the US, Britain, France and even Jordan- before they even reached Israel. Some may have been shot down by Israeli F-35’s operating – Shh!…don’t repeat this to anyone– with permission in Saudi airspace. Israel has not sat so pretty since the last day of the Six Day War (after which everything went to hell in a handbasket). The rest of the normal world which now includes most Arab countries gets what Iran is up to. Let us hope the unprecedented Iranian attack will go down in history as the beginning of the end of the Ayatollah regime and the seminal event in the liberation of the Iranian people.