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William Mehrvarz
Iranian by birth, Jewish American/Zionist by choice.

Can Israel Ignite Regime Change in Iran?

Since the outbreak of war after Hamas terrorists brutally attacked Israeli civilians, murdering 1,200 Jews and kidnapping 256 others, Israel has taken military actions against the Islamic regime and its proxies. First they gutted Gaza from Hamas and then obliterated Hezbollah along with their entire leadership.
It appears that Israel has buckled up to end the Islamic regime’s reign of terror once and for all. Indeed, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant announced that Israel’s counter strike will be “deadly, pinpoint accurate, and most importantly, surprising. ” However, the question remains: Is Israel going to overthrow the regime, or is it instead laying the groundwork for the Iranian people to deliver the final blow against a system that has held their culture, society, and religion hostage?
Israel’s goal may be one of two things: Either to weaken the regime to the point where it no longer poses an existential threat to Israel, or deliver an attack so “deadly, accurate, and surprising, ” that it paves the way for the Iranian people to overthrow the regime on their own.
Realistically, the regime will not be defeated overnight. It will happen through a reaction chain. And the first step in Israel’s “deadly, accurate, and surprising” attacks will determine the direction and tempo of the events that will follow.
Israel has signaled to the Iranian people that it is not their enemy but their partner in achieving a mutual goal.
For Israel to create the conditions for the Iranian people to achieve this goal, it must connect its military actions to subsequent events within Iran, triggering a chain reaction in an already volatile state. Recent events suggest that Israel has several allies among the Iranian people, while the regime enjoys far weaker support. By strategically linking its attacks to the aspirations of these allies, Israel could amplify internal dissent and strengthen the resolve of those seeking change, further destabilizing a regime that is increasingly isolated from its own people.
Israel’s efforts to eliminate the regime’s proxies, namely Hamas and Hezbollah, indicates a significant shift aimed at changing the balance of power in favor of the Iranian people. By defanging these threats, Israel effectively reduces the pressure on itself, allowing it to focus on undermining the regime without having to fight wars on multiple fronts. This allyship empowers the Iranian people to act against their oppressors. Simply put, Israel and the Iranian people are now the only players in this field, and the Islamic regime’s response to the attacks is crucial in determining whether the chain of reactions continues or dies.
If Israel’s “deadly, accurate, and surprising” attack does not meet the Islamic regime’s threshold of domestic, regional, and global embarrassment, it is unlikely that they will retaliate in any shape or form, potentially ending the chain reaction. This scenario might be in favor of the regime. Because historically, the regime has proven their lack of military and intelligence superiority. And despite their propaganda machine spewing how powerful the regime is, I believe they are internally fully aware of their inferiority to Israel’s military intelligence prowess (head of IRGC’s Quds Force was missing for a while).
Knowing this, Israel’s willingness to keep the chain reaction alive could positively affect the course of events. In other words, if Israel has bigger plans for Iran, it will strike in such a way that will require a response from the Islamic regime.
But if that is not Israel’s goal, and its response is what the regime wants (weak, inaccurate, and predictable) then Israel partially weakens the regime and takes the upper hand in the conflict, without escalating any further.
Similar to what Israel accomplished in Lebanon, these series of attacks could be “deadly, ” targeting regime leadership, top decision makers, IRGC commanders, and even the House of Leadership (بیت رهبری); they could be “accurate” and target sensitive locations such as nuclear facilities, oil fields, and missile depots; they could be “surprising, ” targeting the regime when and where it least expects it.
Israel has demonstrated how precise they can be in their attacks, so it should not be surprising if they invent new ways to deal with the threat of the Islamic regime. The Israeli intelligence community’s creative approach will tell us how these chain reactions will play out.
Will Israel be able to strike the regime a humiliating blow that ignites an inevitable chain reaction resulting in the regime’s demise?
About the Author
William Mehrvarz was born and raised in the Islamic Republic of Iran. After rejecting Islam (the crime of apostasy) for Judaism, he fled for his life to seek asylum in the United States. He now writes and speaks about the dangers of Islamism and the importance of religious freedom.