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Emanuele Rossi

China-Iran Missile Connection: Western Actions Looming?

Recent media reports suggest that China may be playing a crucial role in supporting Iran’s ballistic missile program by supplying key chemical components used in missile production. According to the Financial Times and The Wall Street Journal, two Iranian-flagged vessels, the Golbon and the Jairan, are believed to be transporting over 1,000 tonnes of sodium perchlorate from China to Iran. This compound is a precursor for ammonium perchlorate, the main ingredient in solid fuel propellant for ballistic missiles—sufficient to produce fuel for approximately 260 medium-range ballistic missiles.

Key Developments

The Golbon reportedly departed from China’s Daishan Island on January 21, carrying thirty-four 20-foot containers filled with sodium perchlorate. The Jairan is expected to sail in early February with a cargo of 22 containers. Western security sources indicate no intermediate port calls are planned before reaching Iran’s Bandar Abbas.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has emphasized the development of solid-fuel missiles, precursors, and oxidizers, presenting them as essential for its space program and national defense. Despite Iran’s strides toward self-sufficiency, China continues to provide crucial technological expertise and supply chain resilience, ensuring Tehran’s capabilities remain robust even after setbacks.

Israel’s strikes in October significantly disrupted Iran’s missile production. Following Iran’s second missile attack on Israel on October 1, retaliatory strikes on October 26 targeted key solid-fuel missile production facilities at the Parchin military site and the IRGC’s Shahroud ballistic missile and space center. U.S. officials estimate that these actions could delay Iran’s production capabilities by at least a year.

This situation reinforces the importance of external support in sustaining Iran’s efforts. The ongoing collaboration with China offers strategic advantages, allowing Iran to circumvent internal production challenges and maintain its missile ambitions. Consequently, Western intervention to block further shipments to Iran is a possibility. Intelligence sources who shared the information with the media may have done so to shape public perception and set the stage for potential future actions.

Potential Responses and Strategic Implications

If an intervention were to occur, the most probable course of action would be a “visit, board, search, and seizure” (VBSS) operation conducted by specialized Western naval forces. Usually executed by U.S. Coast Guard teams or Royal Navy specialist boarding units, these operations could effectively prevent the deliveries without resorting to armed confrontation.

The Trump administration, maintaining a strong stance on curbing Iran’s missile capabilities, may view these shipments as a direct violation of international sanctions. The U.S. and its allies, mainly the UK and other EU partners, could leverage maritime enforcement operations to halt the vessels, using legal frameworks under UN sanctions resolutions.

Furthermore, the European Union may consider expanding economic measures targeting Chinese suppliers involved in dual-use goods trading with Iran. This approach highlights the broader geopolitical stakes and sets the stage for China’s potential reaction to heightened Western pressure.

China’s Role and Broader Geopolitical Context

China’s involvement in Iran’s military buildup is not new. Beijing has been a consistent supplier of advanced weaponry to Tehran since at least the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), progressing from Soviet-era anti-ship missiles to more sophisticated systems like the C-700 and C-800 series. China’s support is motivated by economic and strategic interests, securing discounted oil imports from Iran while simultaneously challenging U.S. dominance.

In the broader geopolitical context, China’s support for Iran aligns with its efforts to strengthen ties with other actors opposed to Western influence, including Russia and North Korea.

“This development underscores that America and its partners lack a strategy to counter growing proliferation cooperation between an ‘Axis of Aggressors’ comprising China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea,” says Andrea Stricker, Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program Deputy Director and Research Fellow at Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington-based think tank.

“It also suggests the window for a strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities may be closing if Tehran, leveraging its advancing nuclear capabilities, can use this assistance to overcome the bottleneck Israel imposed and produce new missiles”.

Risks to Regional Stability and Maritime Security

Any interdiction of the Globon and Jairan could provoke aggressive responses from Tehran, potentially escalating tensions in the already volatile Indo-Mediterranean, especially in the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman. Iran–and proxies such as Houthi and Hezbollah–have a history of retaliatory actions against commercial shipping, and vessels flagged by the U.S. and its allies could become prime targets for harassment or attacks.

Western forces must carefully calibrate their response to avoid triggering broader conflict while maintaining pressure on Iran’s missile ambitions. Alongside military options diplomatic measures such as increased sanctions, diplomatic negotiations, and efforts to engage regional partners could provide a balanced approach to addressing Iran’s missile program.

The growing alignment between Iran, China, and Russia (and North Korea, the CRINK) adds complexity to the strategic calculations, with potential repercussions for global maritime security and energy markets.

The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether diplomatic efforts can mitigate tensions or if further escalations are inevitable, shaping the security landscape for months to come.

About the Author
Emanuele Rossi is an international affairs analyst, specializing in the Indo-Mediterranean region. His work focuses on the global interconnections of the Enlarged Mediterranean, with a keen eye on the Indo-Pacific.