Aaron T. Walter

Clinton Still Wins: It is the Math, Stupid.

I have not written recently a blog post. Consumed with my Facebook professional page, teaching, and my website. But, I write a post now. The title says it all, really.

Despite the latest development in the 2016 US presidential election, it appears that Hillary Clinton will still win. The latest Associated Press analysis of the Electoral College map rates states worth 278 electoral votes as safely Democratic or leaning Clinton’s way. The analysis is based on preference polling, recent electoral history, demographic trends and campaign priorities such as advertising, travel and on-the-ground staff.

This is good news for HRC since it shows that she doesn’t need to win a state now rated as a toss-up to win the White House. However, it is bad for Trump since he needs to win them all, plus take some states that are in Clinton’s column.

Can Trump win, yes. But it will be difficult. He needs to carry the reliable Republican Western states, the Great Plains and the South. Then, Trump will need to win states are are clearly ‘toss-up.’

North Carolina, for example that has in this election received as much attention as traditional battlegrounds Florida and Ohio. What is truly fascinating in this election cycle is that after trailing in mail ballots, Democrats have surged ahead of Republicans in ballots cast after the start of in-person early voting and a recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll gave Clinton a 6-point edge in the state. So, a win in North Carolina, and Florida and Ohio, too, still isn’t enough to get Trump to 270. He also needs to win states now leaning Clinton’s way. This is seen in Nevada and New Hampshire and Arizona.

In Nevada, Trump’s hardline position on immigration has turned off many in the state’s large Hispanic population. Advantage Clinton. Additionally, tens of thousands more Democrats than Republicans had voted early in the state as of last week.

In New Hampshire, the issue is women. Disproportionately state politics is influenced by women: the state’s governor, two senators and a majority of its state Senate are women. Trump has long struggled with college-educated women, a situation made worse by a string of recent allegations of unwanted sexual advances or sexual assault involving the Republican.

Arizona is a surprise because Republican nominees have won the state all but once since 1952, yet Clinton has begun a late-game $2-million advertising blitz and is utilizing a robust state organization.

The November 8 surprise could be Texas. It is increasingly competitive. Three polls in the past two weeks have shown Clinton within five percentage points of Trump. Not surprising,
Clinton has the support of the state’s Hispanic voters (nearly two-thirds). But, Trump’s comments and alleged actions toward women has severely cooled his support among the typically conservative, college-educated white women in the Houston and Dallas suburbs.

There are several legacy from this campaign I think will be that Donald Trump wiped out 20 years of (GOP) outreach to Latinos, Asians and conservative women.

About the Author
Dr. Aaron Walter teaches International Relations. He writes on American foreign policy towards Israel. In addition to topics directly related to U.S.-Israeli politics, he has written on the presidency and security studies as linked to U.S., Europe, and Israeli studies