Comparative Analysis of Democracy Promotion Outcomes in Georgia and Azerbaijan
Major Factors in Democracy Promotion Outcomes in Georgia and Azerbaijan: Similarities and Differences
While the situation in these neighbouring countries may appear to have been very similar in 2003, if we look a little deeper we can see several key differences.
Leadership: By 2003 Eduard Shevardnadze seemed to have lost his touch as Georgian leader. He had formed an energetic government in 1995, bringing in young reformers, one of whom was the U.S.-educated Mikheil Saakashvili. But by 2000 dissatisfaction was growing with Shevardnadze’s failure to tackle corruption and the poor functioning of the Georgian state and economy. A group of parliamentary deputies from the business community left government in protest. In 2001, Mikheil Saakashvili resigned too, leaving the government and party and taking other young reformers with him. As corruption and the economic situation worsened, Shevardnadze seemed unable or unwilling to take action. Nor were any members of his government able to direct him to tackle the country’s chronic problems. (Welt; Sibilla)
In Azerbaijan, by contrast, President Heydar Aliyev started gradually to tighten his grip on power after the 1995 parliamentary elections. The only departure from senior ranks was that of the chairman of parliament, Rasul Guliyev, in 1996. He resigned his post and left the country quietly, only later establishing himself as an opposition leader from his base in the U.S.A. There was no desertion from the Azerbaijani government on a par with Saakashvili’s. On the contrary, the regime remained united behind Heydar Aliyev and behind plans for his son Ilham to succeed him. In 1995, Ilham Aliyev was elected a member of parliament, and in 2001 he became the head of Azerbaijan’s first delegation to the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe. In 1997, Heydar Aliyev appointed Ilham vice president of the State Oil Company, SOCAR, ensuring his involvement in negotiations with American and international oil companies. When Heydar Aliyev’s health failed in 2003, his administration had no intention of giving up power. On 1st August 2003, it was announced that Ilham Aliyev would be a candidate in the elections scheduled for October. This was a clear sign that Ilham had been chosen to take over from his father and was reinforced on 4th August when he was appointed prime minister, the country’s most senior position after the president. (Altstadt) Heydar Aliyev was not seen in public after he left the country for treatment at Turkey’s Gulhane military hospital. From Gulhane he was taken to a clinic in Cleveland, Ohio. Heydar Aliyev’s death was announced on 12th December 2003, after his son Ilham had had time to become established as president.
Economy and state: The Georgian state system and economy were struggling in 2003, and chronic problems with the supply of gas and electricity were continuing even in the capital. Azerbaijan, on the other hand, was already receiving revenue from oil production. Power and water supplies in Baku were improving and there was optimism about the future of the economy.
Use of force: Even the name of Georgia’s Rose Revolution reveals its non-violent nature. The street protests were peaceful and the police did not use force, even when Saakashvili and his supporters marched through police and security cordons into parliament. The Azerbaijani regime, on the other hand, had no hesitation in using force to suppress protest.
Opposition – unity and leadership: Both the unity and leadership of the opposition should be considered major differences between Azerbaijan and Georgia in 2003. As a minister in Shevardnadze’s cabinet, Mikheil Saakashvili had earned a reputation as a strong critic of government corruption. After setting up his own opposition party, he emerged as a charismatic politician, able to work with other anti-government forces. As the protests over fraud in the parliamentary elections continued, two other prominent politicians, chairman of parliament Nino Burjanadze and the former chairman, Zurab Zhvania, rallied behind Saakashvili.
In Azerbaijan, by contrast, the opposition was fractured. When Aliyev’s predecessor, Abulfaz Elchibey, died in 2000, his opposition Popular Front split in a fight over who should succeed Elchibey. This added one more party to the four largest opposition parties, and there were many smaller parties too. The infighting among the parties damaged the opposition’s standing in the country. Moreover, the failure of the leading opposition parties to agree on a single candidate to contest the elections, despite meeting in London in August 2003 to discuss their choice, made it much harder for any one of them to challenge Ilham Aliyev. No one leader had the political acumen of Saakashvili, nor his broad appeal.
Political and media freedom: One of the main differences between pre-election Georgia and Azerbaijan in 2003 concerned freedom of assembly, expression and the media. During the election campaign in Azerbaijan demonstrations by the opposition forces were constrained. “An atmosphere of intimidation gravely undercut public participation and free campaigning. This situation was compounded by serious violence and an excessive use of force by police at some stages of the campaign,” the OSCE/ODIHR noted its report (p. 1). Media freedom was also restricted. The Azerbaijani opposition, particularly Ilham Aliyev’s main opponent, Musavat Party leader Isa Gambar, did not get fair air time with almost all media outlets biased in favour of Ilham Aliyev.
“Opposition candidates were mentioned sparingly and often in negative terms. In news and current affairs programs, State owned media failed comprehensively to meet its legal obligation, as set out in the Election Code, to create equal conditions for candidates. Private television stations were similarly biased.” (OSCE/ODIHR, pp.1-2)
What can be considered a game changer in this context is the work of the popular independent Rustavi-2 TV channel in Georgia. Both before and after the parliamentary elections in 2003, Rustavi-2 broadcast interviews with opposition and NGO representatives. Rustavi-2 also financed an independent exit poll, which was unimaginable in the Azerbaijani circumstances. The media in Georgia were able to function relatively freely during the election campaigns. As the OSCE/ODIHR report noted (2003, 2, p. 12), “In Tbilisi, a plurality of print and electronic media operated largely without undue government interference.” Moreover, even in the campaign for the November 2003 elections in Georgia the OSCE/ODIHR found that the rights to free speech, free association, and peaceful assembly were generally respected. (p. 2)
Civil society and NGOs: As mentioned above, a variety of NGOs, both foreign and local, were active in Georgia in the run-up to the parliamentary elections and during the protests. NGOs had become an indispensable part of public opposition to the Shevardnadze government and had benefited from funding from the U.S. government and non-government sources, especially the Open Society Foundation. (Bunce, Wolchik, 2010, p. 42) Perhaps the most important result of U.S. investment in NGOs was their role as election monitors. Forty-five domestic observer organizations were accredited for the Georgian elections, of which ISFED was by far the largest, deploying some 2,500 observers on election day. According to the OSCE/ODIHR observation mission report, observers from ISFED and Georgian Young Lawyers Association (GYLA) “played a crucial role in enhancing the transparency of the election process by conducting a partial, parallel vote tabulation (PVT) according to a dependable methodology”. (OSCE/ODIHR-2, 2003, pp. 15-16)
While Azerbaijan had its NGOs, they were less active than in Georgia and had their hands tied when it came to election observation. The law On Public Unions and Foundations banned domestic organisations that received more than 30 per cent of their budget from foreign state funding from observing elections. NGOs and opposition parties failed to facilitate deployment of a comprehensive electoral monitoring model, so were unable to produce credible alternative results to challenge the official ones. (Bunce, Volchik, 2010, p. 43; OSCE/ODIHR, 2003-1, p. 17)
2 Importance of U.S. Role in Democracy Building to the 2003 Election Outcomes in Georgia and Azerbaijan
As listed above, a number of key factors affected the 2003 elections and their aftermath in both Azerbaijan and Georgia. A specific role of the U.S.-backed democracy promotion programmes in Georgia was in helping political parties and local activists and NGOs improve their campaigning, their understanding of the election system and their ability to train and work as election observers. This turned out to be very important, as the work of the exit pollsters and local observers and creation of a credible parallel vote tabulation were crucial in stoking popular indignation at the fraudulent election results. This indignation fuelled the protests in Tbilisi that were so successfully led by Mikheil Saakashvili. More generally, the NGOs, including the student movement Kmara, and the example of the peaceful overthrow of Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic helped to create public awareness of the possibility of change. (Welt; Kandelaki) The importance of U.S. diplomacy is hard to quantify. Despite the U.S. diplomatic pressure to hold free and fair elections, including the visit by James Baker mentioned above, the regime conducted an openly fraudulent poll. However, condemnation of the elections at State Department briefings and the threat to reduce U.S. economic and political support for Georgia, made by the ambassador on Rustavi-2 TV, increased popular concern. The regime’s refusal to use force may also have been encouraged by pressure from the U.S. The ambassador said that he put a lot of time into talks with both officials and leaders of the demonstrations on the importance of resolving the crisis peacefully. (Welt, p. 43; Sibilla, p. 10) It is remarkable that neither the regime nor the protestors resorted to violence during the election protests, especially after the very recent example of Azerbaijan. Moreover, U.S. support helped Saakashvili and his regime to become established in the early days.
Pressure from the U.S. and European organisations led to Azerbaijan adopting new standards in the electoral process in May 2003, although these improvements failed to prevent election fraud. (Altstadt, p.76) The U.S. also supported considerable democracy promotion work amongst NGOs and civil society in Azerbaijan, though it was not on the massive scale that it was in Georgia. There was no student movement in Azerbaijan comparable to Kmara and the local NGOs were smaller and more fragmented than in Georgia. It is hard to say what the effect might have been of more democratisation programmes, but I think it is highly unlikely that the authorities would have allowed the conduct of credible exit polls or the compilation of a parallel vote tabulation. The regime’s work over many years to divide and undermine the opposition is a sign that they had no intention of handing over power. This is confirmed by the use of overwhelming force to break up protests on the eve of polling day and again the following day. The U.S. administration’s initial acceptance of the election result may well have emboldened the regime in Azerbaijan. The stronger words that came later seem to have had little effect on the regime, perhaps because the regime rightly calculated that those comments would not be backed up by action.
After the failure of the Bush administration’s democracy promotion in Iraq, American foreign policy was looking for any history of success in terms of spreading democratic values. This, after all, had been a priority for the Bush administration following the 9/11 attacks. After the Rose Revolution in Georgia, President George W. Bush was keen to use Georgia’s model as a foreign policy success story in order to gain support in the 2004 American presidential elections. He also thought that Georgia’s democratisation would be a clear example of his vision for democracy in the Middle East. During his visit to Georgia in May 2005, President Bush said in an interview, “We are living in historic times when freedom is advancing from the Black Sea to the Caspian, and to the Persian Gulf and beyond.” (Bumiller, 2005) In a speech he described Georgia as “sovereign and free and a beacon of liberty for this region and the world” and said that the success of democratisation in Georgia would send a powerful message to the Middle East and North Korea. (CNN, 2005) President Bush’s call for democratisation from the Black Sea to the Caspian was heard loud and clear in Azerbaijan ahead of the parliamentary elections in 2005, when opposition supporters took to the streets with President Bush’s photos. The opposition did form a more or less united coalition for these elections and managed to gain some public support to imitate Ukraine’s Orange Revolution, but it was not enough to stand against the strong state.
3 Understanding the U.S. Role
So why, when the Bush administration was so enthusiastic about democracy in Georgia, did it not try harder in Azerbaijan? American interest in the energy projects in Azerbaijan also extended to Georgia, as it was an essential part of the export route for Azerbaijani oil. I think the key may lie in stability. Before the elections in 2003 the Georgian state and economy were struggling. U.S. efforts went into both promoting a fair election in 2003 and supporting President Shevardnadze. When Shevardnadze refused to respond to the opposition protests at the election results and Saakashvili seized the initiative, the U.S. administration realised that Saakashvili and his supporters were the most likely force to put together a viable government. The U.S. then put considerable effort into supporting Saakashvili instead. Moreover, Russia made no serious objection at the time. In Azerbaijan, by contrast, the ruling regime showed clearly that they could guarantee stability. Any political change in Azerbaijan or other instability might well have led to a resumption of the “frozen” conflict with Armenia over Mountainous Karabakh, which would have meant greater Russian involvement in the region, which the U.S. did not want. I think another crucial factor was the U.S. administration’s security interests in Azerbaijan as a buffer against Iran. In 2003, moreover, the U.S. seems to have had grounds to hope that Azerbaijan would host a U.S. military base. Sarah Bush’s comments on the effectiveness of a later U.S. democracy assistance programme in Azerbaijan are equally applicable to 2003. She argues that since the Aliyev government uses elections as “a way of ‘shamming the appearance of democratic struggle’ to audiences such as the Council of Europe’, a program that enhances its parliament’s professionalism and reputation seems to play into the regime’s survival strategy.” (Bush, p. 72)
As Bunce and Wolchik write, “Energy politics, strategic geopolitical location and the victory of Hamas in Palestine in 2006 together reduced the priority the United States attached to, say, the defeat of dictators in Azerbaijan, Armenia, Russia and Kazakhstan.” (p.55) I agree that American foreign policy takes into account all of its national interests before providing any support for democracy, as this is evident from observation of the Middle East or former Soviet republics. The U.S. and EU felt they could impose sanctions on Belarus without damaging their other interests. They did not feel this way about Azerbaijan.
The argument of Fareed Zakaria that the U.S. should seek to promote democracy only in countries that have met certain economic conditions does not hold up in this analysis of Georgia and Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan was more economically developed than Georgia, but it was the poorer Georgia that would not accept election fraud and held the more democratic presidential elections in 2004. Another Realist argument against forcing liberal democracy on illiberal societies also comes up short in this study, as Azerbaijani society was no less liberal than Georgian. The striking similarities between the two societies undermine the argument.
The “resource curse” theory, however, fits the bill. I have shown that both production of Azerbaijan’s oil and its export via Georgia were a priority in U.S. foreign policy. Therefore, the U.S. wanted to see stable regimes in power in both countries with which they could do business. Saakashvili seemed a better prospect for stability in Georgia than Shevardnadze. This was a win-win situation for U.S. foreign policy, as with Saakashvili they got a more democratic and more stable regime. In 2003, Azerbaijan was already receiving a significant income from the production and export of oil and the economy was benefiting from a trickle-down effect. The volumes exported via Georgian territory were not large enough at that time to bring tangible change to the Georgian economy. The economic development in Azerbaijan and the optimism about the future of oil revenues and the economy made sections of the population, especially in the capital, more satisfied with their lot and, therefore, less likely to protest strongly against the ruling regime.
It is obviously open to discussion whether Georgia should be considered a democratic country or not, but one thing is clear: it has made progression in the right direction, whereas Azerbaijan has become a dynastic dictatorship.
Conclusion
This project has identified the main aspects of policy under different U.S. administrations towards Azerbaijan and Georgia and the place of democratisation in that policy. The analysis has shown that the failure of democracy promotion in Azerbaijan was the result of a combination of factors, especially the internal strength of the ruling regime and the divisions among the opposition parties. However, American foreign policy had a negative effect on the outcome. Through comparative analysis, I have highlighted similarities and, more importantly, differences between the internal political dynamics of Azerbaijan and Georgia pre- and post-2003. The main concern for the U.S. was to limit Russian and Iranian influence in the region, particularly in Azerbaijan. This concern shaped the contours of its commercial and security cooperation with Azerbaijan. The circuitous route of the BTC pipeline, bypassing Russia and Iran, is a visual demonstration of this policy. As relations with Iran worsened, security cooperation became the focus of U.S. policy in Azerbaijan. When it comes to Georgia, the weakness of the Georgian state under Eduard Shevardnadze at the turn of the century led the U.S. to adopt democracy promotion there as a centrepiece of its policy. Washington thought that greater democracy would make Georgia more stable and ensure the completion of the BTC pipeline. In Azerbaijan the Aliyev regime was much stronger and had worked steadily for several years to undermine and divide the opposition. During George W. Bush’s administration, American efforts to promote democracy worldwide backfired in Iraq. The administration used the regime change in Georgia as a success story to back up its foreign policy. There was a strong linkage between internal and external factors regarding democratisation outcomes. The examples of Azerbaijan and Georgia show that democratisation efforts fail when the right internal factors are not present.
Bibliography
Aliyev, Ilgar (2002) “The U.S. Strategic Engagement in the South Caucasus 1991-2002” [Online] Available at: http://repository.bilkent.edu.tr/handle/11693/15997?show=full – [Accessed: 20 May 2017]
Allison, Graham, Van Buskirk, Emily (2001) U.S. Policy on Caspian Energy Development and Exports, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Altstadt, Audrey L. (2017) Frustrated Democracy in Post-Soviet Azerbaijan, Columbia University Press
APA (2016) “Cargo plane of Silk Way Airlines crashes in Afghanistan killing seven”, 19 May 2016 [Online] Available at: http://en.apa.az/azerbaijani-news/developments/cargo-plane-of-silk-way-airlines-crashes-in-afghanistan-killing-7-updated.html [Accessed: 31 July 2017]
Areshidze, Irakly (2007) Democracy and Autocracy in Eurasia: Georgia in Transition, Michigan State University Press
Associated Press (2001) “Iran Is Accused Of Threatening Research Vessel in Caspian Sea”, The New York Times, 25 July 2001 [Online] Available at: http://www.nytimes.com/2001/07/25/world/iran-is-accused-of-threatening-research-vessel-in-caspian-sea.html?mcubz=3 [Accessed: 29 July 2017]
Axmith, Bradley (2013) The United States’ Policies Toward Russia in the Caspian Sea Region, 1991-2001. Hamburg: Anchor Academic Publishing
BBC News (2001) “U.S. pressure over Nagorno Karabakh”, 4 April 2001 [Online] Available at: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/1257055.stm [Accessed: 15 July 2017]
Blank, Stephen (2017) “Missing in Action: US Policy”, Cornell, Svante (ed) The International Politics of the Armenian-Azerbaijani Conflict, Palgrave Macmillan US, pp. 125-148
Bluth, Christopher (2014) US Foreign Policy in the Caucasus and Central Asia: Politics, Energy and Security London: I.B. Tauris
Boonstra, Jos (2010) Assessing Democracy Assistance: Georgia, FRIDE, 1 May 2010 [Online] Available at: http://fride.org/download/IP_WMD_Georgia_ENG_jul10.pdf[Accessed: 20 July 2017]
Borzel, Tanja A., Pamuk, Yasemin & Stahn, Andreas, (2009), “Democracy or Stability? EU and U.S. Engagement in the Southern Caucasus”, in Magen, Amichai, Risse, Thomas & McFaul, Michael (eds), Promoting Democracy and the Rule of Law, Palgrave Macmillan, pp. 150-184
Bouchet, Nicolas (2015) Democracy Promotion as US Foreign Policy: Bill Clinton and Democratic Enlargement Abingdon: Routledge
Bugajski, Janusz (2010) Georgian Lessons: Conflicting Russian and Western Interests in the Wider Europe, Center for Strategic and International Studies [Online] Available at: https://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/legacy_files/files/publication/102110_Bugajski_GeorgianLessons.WEB.pdf[Accessed on: 20 July 2017]
Bumiller, Elisabeth, (2005), “Bush Encourages Georgia With a Warning to Russia”, The New York Times, 11 May 2005 [Online] Available at: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/05/11/world/europe/bush-encourages-georgia-with-a-warning-to-russia.html?mcubz=3 [Accessed on: 21 July 2017]
Bunce, Valerie J., Wolchik, Sharon L. (2013) “Azerbaijan: Losing the Transitional Moment”, in Stoner, Kathryn, McFaul, Michal (eds), Transitions to Democracy. A Comparative Perspective Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, pp. 400-428
Bunce, Valerie, Wolchik, Sharon (2010) “A Regional Tradition: The Diffusion of Democratic Change under Communism and Postcommunism”, in Bunce, Valerie, McFaul, Michael, Stoner-Weiss, Kathryn (2010) Democracy and Authoritarianism in the Postcommunist World Cambridge University Press, pp. 30-56
Bush, George President (1992) “Statement on Signing the Freedom Support Act”, 24 October 1992. The American Presidency Project [Online] Available at: http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=21658 [Accessed: 25 July 2017]
Bush, Sarah Sunn (2015) The Taming of Democracy Assistance: Why Democracy Promotion Does Not Confront Dictators, Cambridge University Press
Buscaneanu, Sergiu (2016) Regime Dynamics in EU’s Eastern Neighbourhood: EU Democracy Promotion, International Influences and Domestic Contexts, New York: Palgrave Macmillan
Carothers, Thomas (2000) “The Clinton Record On Democracy Promotion”, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 12 September 2000 [Online] Available at: http://carnegieendowment.org/files/16carothers.pdf [Accessed: 24 July 2017]
Chollett, Derek, & Gordon, Philip H., (2005), “Georgia: Don’t Let the Rose Revolution Wilt”, 18 August 2005, Brookings [Online] Available at: https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/georgia-dont-let-the-rose-revolution-wilt/[Accessed: 10 April 2017]
Clinton, President (1999) “Remarks at a Signing Ceremony for the Baku-Ceyhan and Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline Agreements in Istanbul”, 18 November 1999 [Online] Available at: https://clintonwhitehouse5.archives.gov/WH/New/Europe-9911/remarks/1999-11-18b.html [Accessed: 2 August 2017]
CNN, “Bush pledges to spread democracy”, 20 January 2005 [Online] Available at: www.cnn.com/2005/ALLPOLITICS/01/20/bush.speech [Accessed: 31 July 2017]
CNN, “Bush: Georgia ‘beacon of liberty’”, 11 May 2005 [Online] Available at: http://edition.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/europe/05/10/bush.tuesday/ [Accessed: 31 July 2017]
Coene, Frederik (2010) The Caucasus – An Introduction New York: Routledge
Committee on International Relations, Committee on Foreign Relations (2003) Legislation on Foreign Relations Through 2002 Vol.I-B, p. 90
Cornell, Svante (2004) “The United States and Central Asia: In the steppes to stay?” Cambridge Review of International Affairs, Vol.17, No.2, summer 2004, p.7
Cornell, Svante (2005) “U.S. Engagement in the Caucasus: Changing Gears”, Helsinki Monitor, Vol. 16, Issue 2, pp. 111-119
Cornell, Svante, (2007) “Georgia After The Rose Revolution: Geopolitical Predicament And Implications For U.S. Policy”, in Monson, Gabriel C. (Ed.), Georgia After the Rose Revolution New York: Nova Science Publishers, pp. 27-48
Cornell, Svante (2010) Azerbaijan Since Independence, Abingdon: Routledge
Doyle, Michael W. (1986) “Liberalism and World Politics”, The American Political Science Review, Vol. 80, No. 4 (December, 1986), pp. 1151-1169
Erickson, Amanda (2017) “Azerbaijan’s president has chosen a new VP – his wife”, The Washington Post, 22 February 2017 [Online] Available at: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/02/22/azerbaijans-president-has-chosen-a-new-vp-his-wife/?utm_term=.31e65e2b6c70 [Accessed: 9 April 2017]
Freedom Support Act, Title 5: Nonproliferation and Disarmament Programs and Activities, www.congress.gov) [Online] Available at: https://www.congress.gov/bill/102nd-congress/senate-bill/2532/text [Accessed: 15 July 2017]
Freizer, Sabine (2003) “Dynasty and democracy in Azerbaijan”, 5 December, 2003, [Online] Available at: www.opendemocracy.net/democracy-protest/article_1626.jsp [Accessed: 31 July 2017]
Fukuyama, Francis & McFaul, Michael (2007) “Should Democracy Be Promoted or Demoted?” Washington Quarterly, Winter 2007 [Online] Available at: http://www.stanleyfoundation.org/publications/other/FukuyMcFaul07.pdf[Accessed: 12 April 2017]
Fuller, Liz (2015) “Georgia-NATO Relations In Thrall To Previous Miscalculations” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 3 September 2015 [Online] Available at: https://www.rferl.org/a/georgia-nato-relations-thrall-past-miscalculations/27224738.html [Accessed: 27 July 2017]
GlobalSecurity.org, “Georgia Train and Equip Program (GTEP)” [Online] Available at: https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/gtep.htm [Accessed: 27 July 2017]
Georgian, Armen (2002) “U.S. Eyes Caspian Oil in ‘War On Terror’”, Foreign Policy in Focus, 1 April 2002 [Online] Available at: http://fpif.org/us_eyes_caspian_oil_in_war_on_terror/ [Accessed: 20 July 2017]
Gormley, Dennis M. (2011) “American Conventional Security: The Balancing Act”, Kelleher, Catherine M. & Reppy, Judith (Eds) Getting to Zero: The Path to Nuclear Disarmament, Stanford University Press, pp. 317-346
Graham, Bradley (2003) “Rumsfeld Discusses Tighter Military Ties With Azerbaijan”, The Washington Post, 4 December 2003 Online] Available at: https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/2003/12/04/rumsfeld-discusses-tighter-military-ties-with-azerbaijan/050af8a6-6108-4ba5-a2ed-4913f5869566/?utm_term=.e07e072b269b [Accessed: 21 July 2017]
Gunter, Michael M. (2011) Armenian History and the Question of Genocide. New York: Palgrave Macmillan
Hill, Fiona (2001) “A Not-So-Grand Strategy: U.S. Policy in the Caucasus and Central Asia Since 1991”, Brookings, 1 February 2001 Online] Available at: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/a-not-so-grand-strategy-u-s-policy-in-the-caucasus-and-central-asia-since-1991/ [Accessed: 18 July 2017]
Hranecky, Simon (2016) “Crash: Silk Way AN12 at Camp Dwyer on May 18th 2016, engine failure” The Aviation Herald [Online] Available at: http://avherald.com/h?article=4987c163 [Accessed: 21 July 2017]
Human Rights Watch (2000) “Azerbaijani Parliamentary Elections Manipulated”, Human Rights Watch Backgrounder, October 2000 [Online] Available at: http://pantheon.hrw.org/legacy/backgrounder/eca/azer-election-bck.htm[Accessed: 2 April 2017]
Human Rights Watch (2004) Crushing Dissent: Repression, Violence and Azerbaijan’s Elections, January 2004, Vol. 16, No. 1(D) [Online] Available at: https://www.hrw.org/reports/2004/azerbaijan0104/8.htm [Accessed: 24 July 2017]
Human Rights Watch, (2006), “Bush Must Press For Human Rights Reform in Azerbaijan”, Press Release, 24 April 2006 [Online] Available at: https://www.hrw.org/news/2006/04/24/bush-must-press-human-rights-reform-azerbaijan [Accessed: 2 April 2017]
Ignatius, David (2000) “Dick Cheney and The Great Game”, The Washington Post, 27 Aug 2000 [Online] Available at: https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/opinions/2000/08/27/dick-cheney-and-the-great-game/31665fc8-55a0-4605-a3d6-4e43d7d861b1/?utm_term=.b2e559b16cda [Accessed: 15 July 2017]
Ismailova, Gulnara (2002) “Azerbaijan-American Military Consultations Take Place In Baku”, The Central Asia Caucasus Analyst, 10 April 2002 [Online] Available at: http://www.cacianalyst.org/publications/field-reports/item/7301-field-reports-caci-analyst-2002-4-10-art-7301.html [Accessed: 1 August 2017]
Jawad, Pamela (2005) “Democratic Consolidation in Georgia after the
‘Rose Revolution’?” PRIF Reports No. 73 [Online] Available at: https://www.hsfk.de/fileadmin/HSFK/hsfk_downloads/prif73.pdf [Accessed: 15 August 2017]
Al Jazeera, (2017) “European Parliament grants Georgia visa-free travel”, 3 February 2017 [Online] Available at: http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/02/european-parliament-grants-georgia-visa-free-travel-170202133759696.html [Accessed: 15 March 2017]
Kandelaki, Giorgi (2006) “Georgia’s Rose Revolution: A Participant’s Perspective”, July 2006, United States Institute Of Peace Special Report 167 [Online] Available at: https://www.usip.org/publications/2006/07/georgias-rose-revolution-participants-perspective [Accessed: 31 July 2017]
Karl, Terry Lynn (1997) The Paradox of Plenty: Oil Booms and Petro States, University of California Press
Kauzlarich, Richard (2001) Time For Change? U.S. Policy in the Transcaucasus New York: Century Foundation [Online] Available at: https://tcf.org/assets/downloads/tcf-Kauzlarich.pdf [Accessed: 10 April 2017]
Khelashvili, George and Macfarlane, S. Neil (2010) “The Evolution of US Policy towards the Southern Caucasus”, Uluslararası İlişkiler, Volume 7, No 26 (Summer 2010), pp. 105-124. [Online] Available at: http://georgica.tsu.edu.ge/files/04-Foreign%20Affairs/Khelashvili%20&%20MacFarlane-2010.pdf [Accessed: 20 July 2017]
King, David & Pomper, Miles (2002) “The U.S. Congress and the Contingent Influence of Diaspora Lobbies: Lessons from U.S. Policy toward Armenia and Azerbaijan”, The Journal of Armenian Studies, 9 December 2002 [Online] Available at: https://sites.hks.harvard.edu/fs/dking/Section907v2.pdf [Accessed: 22 July 2017]
Kinzer, Stephen (1998) On Piping Out Caspian Oil, U.S. Insists The Cheaper, Shorter Way Isn’t Better, The New York Times, November 8,1998 [Online] Available at: http://www.nytimes.com/1998/11/08/world/on-piping-out-caspian-oil-us-insists-the-cheaper-shorter-way-isn-t-better.html?mcubz=3 [Accessed: 27 July 2017]
Kuchins, Andrew C., & Mankoff, Jeffrey, (2016) The South Caucasus in a Reconnecting Eurasia: U.S. Policy Interests and Recommendations, Centre for Strategic and International Studies, 27 October 2016 [Online] Available at: https://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/161007_Kuchins_SouthCaucasusReconnectingEurasia_Web.pdf[Accessed: 26 July 2017]
MacFarlane, S. Neil (2015), Two Years of the Dream: Georgian Foreign Policy During the Transition, May 2015, Chatham House Research Paper [Online] Available at: https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/files/chathamhouse/publications/research/20150529GeorgianForeignPolicyMacFarlane.pdf [Accessed: 31 July 2017]
Mahdi, Ahmed (2012) Energy and U.S. Foreign Policy: The Quest for Resource Security after the Cold War, London: I.B. Tauris, pp. 22-81
Maresca, John J. (1998) “U.S. Ban on Aid to Azerbaijan (Section 907)”, Azerbaijan International, Winter 1998, 6.4, pp. 54-55 [Online] Available at: https://www.azer.com/aiweb/categories/magazine/64_folder/64_articles/64_maresca.htm [Accessed: 16 July 2017]
McDougall, James (1997) “A New Stage in U.S.-Caspian Sea Basin Relations”, Central Asia No.5 (11) [Online] Available at: http://www.ca-c.org/dataeng/st_04_dougall.shtml [Accessed: 15 July 2017]
McFaul, Michael A. (2005) “American Efforts at Promoting Regime Change in the Soviet Union and then Russia: Lessons Learned”, Centre on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law Working Paper, Stanford Institute on International Studies, No. 44, September 2005 [Online] Available at: https://fsi.stanford.edu/sites/default/files/CDDRL_Working_Paper43McFaulFIN.pdf[Accessed: 4 August 2017]
Mitchell, Lincoln A. (2008) Uncertain Democracy: U.S. Foreign Policy and Georgia’s Rose Revolution, University of Pennsylvania Press
Mitchell, Lincoln (2008) “What Was The Rose Revolution For?” Harvard International, 27 February 2008 [Online] Available at: hir.harvard.edu/what-was-the-rose-revolution-for [Accessed: 10 April 2017]
Mitchell, Lincoln (2013) “What’s Next For Georgia? The End Of The Rose Revolution”, World Affairs, January/February 2013 [Online] Available at: http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/what’s-next-georgia-end-rose-revolution [Accessed: 10 April 2017]
Myers, Steven Lee (2006) “Russia Deports Georgians and Increases Pressures on Businesses and Students”, The New York Times 7 October 2006 [Online] Available at: http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/07/world/europe/07moscow.html?mcubz=3[Accessed: 4 August 2017]
Natalizia, Gabriele (2014) “The Baltic and Caucasian States after the Transition. Democratization and State Consolidation” Societa Italiana di Scienza Politica [Online] Available at: https://www.sisp.it/files/papers/2014/gabriele-natalizia-1785.pdf [Accessed: 5 April 2017]
NATO (2008) Bucharest Summit Declaration, 3 April 2008 [Online] Available at: http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_8443.htm [Accessed: 26 July 2017]
News.Az (2011) “Azerbaijani plane crashes in Afghanistan”, 6 July 2011 [Online] Available at: http://news.az/articles/society/39884 [Accessed: 31 July 2017]
Nichol, Jim (2009) “Central Asia’s Security: Issues and Implications for U.S. Interests”, Congressional Research Service, 25 February, 2009, pp. 43-45 [Online] Available at: http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a496338.pdf [Accessed: 2 April 2017]
Nichol, Jim (2014) “Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia: Political Developments and Implications for U.S. Interests”, Congressional Research Service, 2 April 2014 [Online] Available at: https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33453.pdf [Accessed: 2 April 2017]
Olhouser, Elisabeth, (ed.), (2015), Democratization in Ukraine, Belarus and Georgia: Success, Stagnation and Context, New York: Nova Science Publishers
Oliker, Olga; Crane, Keith; Schwartz, Lowell H; Yusupov, Catherine, 2009, Russian Foreign Policy: Sources and Implications, Rand Corporation [Online] Available at: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monographs/2009/RAND_MG768.pdf [Accessed: 25 July 2017]
OSCE/ODIHR Election Observation Mission Report (2003-1) “Republic Of Azerbaijan Presidential Election 15 October 2003” [Online] Available at:
http://www.osce.org/odihr/elections/azerbaijan/13467?download=true [Accessed: 25 July 2017]
OSCE/ODIHR Election Observation Mission Report (2003-2) “Georgia. Parliamentary Elections, Part 1, 2 November 2003” [Online] Available at: http://www.osce.org/odihr/elections/georgia/22206?download=true [Accessed: 2 August 2017]
OSCE/ODIHR Election Observation Mission Report (2004-1) “Georgia. Extraordinary Presidential Election, 4 January 2004” [Online] Available at: http://www.osce.org/odihr/elections/georgia/24600?download=true [Accessed: 2 August 2017]
OSCE/ODIHR Election Observation Mission Report (2004-2) “Georgia. Partial Repeat Parliamentary Elections, 28 March 2004” [Online] Available at: http://www.osce.org/odihr/elections/georgia/34196?download=true [Accessed: 3 August 2017]
Ottaway, David B, & Morgan, Don, (1997), “Former Top U.S. Aides Seek Caspian Gusher”, The Washington Post, 6 July 1997 [Online] Available at: https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1997/07/06/former-top-us-aides-seek-caspian-gusher/826bb6c2-1830-4bb4-bac0-249e53b44af0/?utm_term=.b4480fb2e24f – [Accessed: 20 March 2017]
Ottaway, David B, & Morgan, Don, (1998), “Azerbaijan’s Riches Alter the Chessboard”, The Washington Post, 4 October 1998, p. A3 [Online] Available at: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/inatl/europe/caspian100498.htm[Accessed: 15 July 2017]
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (2000) “Caucasus Report: October 12, 2000”. Vol. 3, No. 40 [Online] Available at: https://www.rferl.org/a/1341963.html [Accessed: 25 July 2017]
Ross, Michael L. (2012) The Oil Curse: How Petroleum Wealth Shapes the Development of Nations, Princeton University Press
Rumer, Eugene; Sokolsky, Richard; Stronski, Paul (2017) “U.S. Policy Toward The South Caucasus: Take Three”, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, May 2017 [Online] Available at: http://carnegieendowment.org/2017/05/31/u.s.-policy-toward-south-caucasus-take-three-pub-70122 [Accessed: 26 July 2017]
Russett, Bruce (1993) Grasping the Democratic Peace: Principles for a Post-Cold War World, Princeton University Press
Shaffer, Brenda (2003) “U.S. Policy in the South Caucasus,” Lynch, Dove (ed.), The South Caucasus: a challenge for the EU, Chaillot Paper, 2003, pp. 54-61
Sherwood-Randall, Elizabeth (1998) “U.S. Policy and the Caucasus”, The Berkeley Program in Soviet and Post-Soviet Studies, Issue 5, Spring 1998
Sibilla, Chris (2015) “Georgia and the Rose Revolution”, Moments in U.S. Diplomatic History, Association for Diplomatic Studies and Training [Online] Available at: http://adst.org/2015/11/georgia-and-the-rose-revolution/#.WbY3ra3MyCR[Accessed: 20 July 2017]
Socor, Vladimir (2012) “NATO and Georgia: Beyond The Open Door”, The Jamestown Foundation, Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume 9, Issue101, 29 May 2012 [Online] Available at: https://jamestown.org/program/nato-and-georgia-beyond-the-open-door/ [Accessed: 26 July 2017]
Stewart, Susan (ed.) (2012) Democracy Promotion and the ‘Color Revolutions’, New York: Routledge
Subcommittee on Europe, Eurasia and Emerging Threats of the Committee on Foreign Affairs, House of Representatives (2015) Azerbaijan: U.S. Energy, Security, and Human Rights Interests, CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform
Svyatets, Ekaterina (2016) Energy Security and Cooperation in Eurasia. Power, profits and politics, New York: Routledge
Talbott, Strobe (1997) “A Farewell to Flashman: American Policy in the Caucasus and Central Asia”, Address at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, 21 July 1997. U.S. Department of State Dispatch; Jul 97, Vol. 8 Issue 6, p. 10
Tarnoff, Curt (2007) “U.S. Assistance to the Former Soviet Union”, Congressional Research Service, 1 March 2007 [Online] Available at: https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL32866.pdf [Accessed: 14 July 2017]
Tsereteli, Mamuka (2013) “Azerbaijan and Georgia: Strategic Partnership for Stability in a Volatile Region”, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, Silk Road Studies Program [Online] Available at: https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/173440/2013-Tsereteli-Azerbaijan-and-Georgia1.pdf [Accessed: 18 July 2017]
Weinberger, Caspar W., Schweizer, Peter (1997) “Russia’s Oil Grab”, The New York Times, 9 May 1997 [Online] Available at: http://www.nytimes.com/1997/05/09/opinion/russia-s-oil-grab.html?mcubz=3[Accessed: 15 July 2017]
Welt, Cory (2010) Democracy and Authoritarianism in the Post Communist World, Cambridge University Press
Welt, Cory (2006) Georgia’s Rose Revolution: From Regime Weakness to Regime Collapse, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Revised Version, 28 December 2006 [Online] Available at: http://www18.georgetown.edu/data/people/cdw33/publication-32608.pdf[Accessed: 30 July 2017]
Yalowitz, Kenneth, & Cornell, Svante (2004) “The Critical but Perilous Caucasus”, Orbis, Vol. 48, Issue 1, Winter 2004 [Online] Available at: https://www.fpri.org/article/2004/01/critical-perilous-caucasus/ pp. 105-116 [Accessed: 16 July 2017]
Zakaria, Fareed (2003) The Future of Freedom: Illiberal Democracy at Home and Abroad New York: W.W. Norton & Co.
Zielys, Povilas (2014) “U.S. Security Interests and Democracy Assistance Programs in Georgia and Ukraine”, Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review, 11 (1), pp. 171-18.