Dealing with Trumpian Uncertainty and No Cultural Boycotts!

As I write this, the Gaza War is in a period of uncertainty and, perhaps, of transition. President Trump put out on Monday a half-thought-out “peace plan” containing various elements necessary to any agreement and Hamas predictably responded on Friday with a “yes, but.” Mr. Trump, in a hurry for a “deal”, actually did the statesmanlike thing and took the “yes, but” for a “yes,” perhaps unknowingly imitating Jack Kennedy in the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

It goes without saying that Mr. Trump is way out of his depth here as in so many current crises, but he has a trump card that is unique: when he talks, people (generally) listen. Most of the world is genuinely afraid of getting on his bad side, including Bibi Netanyahu, who had no trouble treating Joe Biden’s admonitions with contempt.

The question now is whether Mr. Trump can pick his way through the minefields that lie ahead of every step he takes – and will he enforce his will when both sides inevitably try to steal a march on him or baldly lie about what they’re doing? Careful follow-up is not Mr. Trump’s forte. Of course, his instinct is to support Israel, but he seems to recognize two constraints: Israel must not annex the West Bank (de jure at least) and it must stop the Gaza War. These are necessary, if by no means sufficient.

I am no fan of Mr. Trump but I must hope he succeeds. In order for him to do that, he must soon force Bibi to dispose of the coalition partners he has clung to throughout, Messrs Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, which will create a coalition crisis within Israel. Only Mr. Trump can force this through, with threats of sanctions if necessary. That is one of the unspoken changes necessary for the war to end. If Trump is not willing to carry this through, his peace plan goes down the drain and the war goes on.

A friend sent me a link to a discussion of the plan on Zeteo, a strongly pro-Palestinian website, in which Diana Buttu, a highly articulate former Palestinian negotiator, maintains the plan “reeks of colonialism.” Well, yes, it does. But ask Lula da Silva, or Narendra Modi, or even Keir Starmer, all head of large and important countries, about their experience of dealing with Mr. Trump, and I assume you’ll find them using similar words, so long as they are sure they’re far from any microphone. That is the reality of diplomacy in the age of Trump. One man with a world-size ego, lays down the law. That is the probable reality for the next four years.

Of course the Palestinians do have it worse than Brazil or India or the U.K. Those are countries with some degree of agency. But that, of course, is precisely why the Palestinians need a state – and the US needs to vote for a president who respects norms, national and international, but we can’t wait that long. Trump’s “plan” represents the only current hope for at least a ceasefire – or else Israel will carry the war to an even bloodier conclusion.

SOMETHING VERY DIFFERENT

Today I received an email from an old friend, a prominent Israeli-American journalist named Gershon Gorenberg. He provides a (free) link to his Atlantic article decrying cultural boycotts against Israel, whose point I heartily endorse.

I oppose all cultural and academic boycotts but even more so in this case, when I know that Israeli artists and intellectuals are overwhelmingly against this government. This is well-known – and thus, when the BDS movement insists on boycotting the film Another Country, one has to suspect that its spokespeople have no interest in dealing with real Israelis – or settling the conflict with compromise. Cultural and academic boycotts do not end conflicts; they exacerbate them. I urge you to read and disseminate this article.

Here’s the link again.