Dear Next U.S. President: Fighting Autocracy is a Vital American Interest

The 2024 U.S. presidential election takes place during a pivotal time of increased cooperation among the world’s most formidable regimes of repression (Russia, China, Iran and North Korea) which are bent on overturning the Washington-led rules-based order.

As voters in the democratic world increasingly skew towards isolationism and protectionism, leaders in the West must lay out a clear vision on why fighting autocracy is key to our prosperity and safety.

The next U.S. president will need to counter these noninterventionist trends which have gained sympathy among American voters. You might say that our way of life depends on it.

Exhibit A is the war in Ukraine. Putin’s aggression against Ukraine – – violating the principle that opposes territorial conquest and assaults on other countries’ sovereignty – – is an ongoing attempt to upend the international structure that was paid for by the blood and treasure of the United States and its allies during World War II.

If Putin is allowed to win in Ukraine, Europe’s geopolitics will be radically altered, raising the prospects for the spread of armed conflict which would eventually involve the United States and other actors.

A Putin victory in Ukraine would embolden his imperial ambitions, likely leading to incursions into Georgia, Moldova, the Baltic states and former Soviet Central Asian satellite states such as Kazakhstan.

This chain of events could well result in a wider war with NATO, dragging the United States into the conflict. Amid the chaos, Washington would need to be on guard for the prospect of Beijing using force to retake Taiwan or opting for military action against the Philippines to assert its ongoing expansionist maritime claims in the South China Sea.

To prevent such a tragedy, the next U.S. president will need to ensure Ukraine receives an increased and lasting supplies of lethal aid and geopolitical support to safeguard against additional losses of territory.

As part of this, Washington must grant Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy permission to use American weapons for conducting additional long-range strikes into Russia in order to incapacitate Russian bomber aircraft runways, supply lines, energy infrastructure and positions fortified by North Korean troops.

Such demonstrations of sustained resolve by Kyiv and Washington will be necessary to communicate to Putin that a takeover of Ukraine will fail and that Russia’s only alternative is to settle for an armistice or a complete end to hostilities.

Along these lines, the next U.S. president will need to engage in difficult negotiations which cede Russian occupied Ukrainian territory to Putin in exchange for an end to the fighting and Kyiv’s admission into both the European Union and NATO.

The resulting scenario will leave Ukraine in a similar position to South Korea, i.e., as an American protectorate that can engage the free and democratic world on its own terms.

Unfortunately, public opinion trends in many democracies indicate waning support for Ukraine and international engagement more broadly.

In the U.S., there are strong indications that American voters continue to turn inward. A recent Morning Consult poll found that only 24% of voters believe U.S.-China relations are a top foreign policy concern and just 20% view Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as an important American interest.

The same poll found that a paltry 16% of American voters believe upholding democracy should be a priority for Washington.

Understandably, this has resulted in some of America’s key allies questioning Washington’s security commitments during rising instability overseas and political tensions in Washington.

Ukraine-skeptic and noninterventionist trends are also flourishing in Europe.

The far-right, Russia-friendly Freedom Party (FPÖ) was victorious in Austria’s September 29 general election, and center-right and far-right parties took the largest number of seats in June’s European Union elections in Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Poland.

The AfD in Germany and Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party in the Netherlands have called for cutting aid to Ukraine, while Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Slovak President Peter Pellegrini are also known for their pro-Putin sympathies.

In Serbia, President Aleksandar Vučić has described his country as a strategic partner and an “ally of Russia” while refusing to introduce sanctions against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.

Polls across Europe indicate that local citizens – – in particular young voters – – believe that openness offers less to their lives than prior generations. They cite immigration as the source of economic difficulties and also express discontent over mishandled COVID lockdowns and Europe’s cost of living troubles.

Alarmingly, El País newspaper conducted a study which found that a quarter of Spanish men between 18 to 26 think that authoritarianism may be preferable to democracy “in some circumstances”.

This lack of support for standing up to autocracy risks encouraging Putin and Xi to ramp up their campaigns of aggression in Europe and the Indo-Pacific. North Korean supreme leader Kim Jong Un and Grand Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Hosseini Khamenei of Iran are also paying attention.

To counter these dangers, the incoming administration must recommit to American military and commercial engagement overseas. For eight decades, this combined approach has deterred World War II-like conflicts and broadened economic opportunities.

These benefits to the American people which have secured the peace and raised living standards did not occur in a vacuum. Rather, they are the result of efforts by both Republican and Democrat administrations to bolster the security of America and its friends through the creation of institutions like NATO, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund – – each of which protected against the Soviet Union and promoted peaceful international commerce.

Memo to the new U.S. president: Engagement with the world has been a cornerstone of American security and prosperity, and it cannot be discarded now. Amid Putin’s murderous rampage in Ukraine, the threats of Iran and China’s pressure campaign against its neighbors, working with international partners must continue to be our nation’s approach for preventing great power conflict.

American power, accompanied by the support of her allies, is a requirement for world stability. Isolationism, on the other hand, breeds infirmity and raises vulnerability to outside aggression.

Geopolitical relationships old and new – – NATO, AUKUS, the Quad, the U.S.-Japan-Republic of Korea Trilateral Partnership and U.S. alliances with Australia, the Philippines, Thailand and Middle East partners – – are the way to secure our collective future.

In addition to the security realm, America will need to begin re-engaging the world through a new generation of trade agreements. While past bipartisan excesses of international trade damaged the American fabric through job losses and the hallowing out of domestic manufacturing, blanket protectionism will inhibit the economic growth needed for the U.S. to remain prosperous and maintain its strategic influence abroad.

A balanced approach to trade that protects sensitive U.S. industries while expanding market opportunities for American companies is long overdue.

Put simply, the tyrannical models of Moscow, Beijing, Tehran and Pyongyang are best countered by American openness, innovation and military deterrence. U.S. competitiveness against these dark systems of governance will be stymied by an American withdrawal from the world.

Global cohesion depends on U.S. power and involvement on the world stage, despite allegations of Washington’s foreign policy double standards. While American democracy may have its faults, it is still the best option for safeguarding individual liberty and protecting human rights amid the growing cooperation of menacing revanchist powers.

The next U.S. president must use the bully pulpit to educate the American people on the need to reinvest in its security and reengage the world. Before Putin, Xi, Khamenei or Kim have a breakout moment, the new administration must make the case as to why fighting autocracy is a vital American interest.