Desert Deals and Diplomatic Dissonance: The Abraham Accords Five Years On

When the Abraham Accords were signed in 2020 under the Trump 1.0 administration, the ink dried quickly, but the consequences began unfolding slowly—across air corridors, trade routes, and diplomatic backchannels. The normalization agreements between Israel and several Arab states promised a new Middle East, anchored not in ideology but in innovation, investment, and interfaith cooperation. Five years on, their impact is visible, but their future—especially in the shadow of Donald Trump’s return to the White House—is far from assured.

Are the Accords a quiet revolution? A calculated mirage? Or something more ambiguous—diplomacy by spreadsheet, peace by proxy?

Trade Winds and Tech Bridges: The Material Gains

On paper, the economic dividends of normalization are tangible. By 2023, UAE-Israel trade exceeded $2.5 billion, spanning cybersecurity, agritech, water management, and green energy. Israeli desalination expertise is helping Morocco address water scarcity. Gulf investors are backing Israeli med-tech and AI start-ups. The UAE and Bahrain have signed over so many bilateral MoUs with Israel, and direct flights between Tel Aviv and Dubai have become routine.

Meanwhile, Jerusalem has seen over 150,000 Gulf Muslims visit Al-Aqsa Mosque at single events, a cultural thaw that would’ve been unthinkable just a few years ago. Dubai’s Abrahamic Family House—home to a mosque, church, and synagogue—offers an architectural metaphor for the new Middle East: curated, cooperative, and cautiously optimistic.

This is not mere symbolism. It is the beginning of a regional paradigm shift, where trade and tech are replacing tanks and taboos.

Security First: The Realpolitik Beneath the Ribbon Cutting

Yet beneath the olive branches lie oil pipelines and radar systems. The Accords have reinforced a U.S.-anchored strategic bloc to counterbalance Iran. Intelligence sharing between Israel and the Gulf has intensified. Sudan’s brief flirtation with normalization came at the price of sanctions relief, and defense procurement from Washington spiked after the deals were inked.

For all the talk of peace, the architecture is unmistakably security-centric. These are not treaties of reconciliation, but alignments of convenience—transactions that entrench authoritarian regimes in exchange for regional stability and economic modernization.

The Biden administration, after initial hesitancy, ultimately embraced the accords—not out of idealism, but necessity. With global energy markets destabilized and China encroaching in the region, Washington needed wins, and the Accords provided them.

Trump Redux: A Broader Tent or a Fragile Facade?

Trump’s return to power in 2025 has reignited ambitions to expand the Accords to Saudi Arabia, the grand prize of normalization. Talks are underway, reportedly contingent on a Gaza ceasefire and American security guarantees for the Kingdom.

But the Trump camp’s proposal to “redevelop Gaza” under a U.S.-led plan—focusing on infrastructure, not sovereignty—risks alienating Riyadh and further marginalizing Palestinian aspirations. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) remains keen on modernizing Saudi Arabia, but cannot afford to ignore popular sentiment, which is still deeply sympathetic to the Palestinian cause.

Saudi normalization would be a diplomatic game-changer—but not without cost. If it proceeds without genuine movement on Palestinian rights, it may render the Accords structurally unsustainable: ambitious in scope, hollow in substance.

Palestine: The Missing Piece

From Ramallah to Rafah, the Abraham Accords are viewed not as peace deals but betrayals. Settlement expansion has continued unabated under Netanyahu’s far-right coalition, and even nominal gestures toward a two-state solution have evaporated.

The central paradox of the Accords remains: they normalize the region without resolving its most abnormal feature—the ongoing occupation. While Gulf leaders framed normalization as a strategic wedge to extract concessions from Israel, the reality has been the opposite. The political geography of Palestine has shrunk even as regional trade has boomed.

Regional Ripples: Old Friends, New Alignments

Egypt and Jordan—Israel’s longstanding peace partners—have navigated the post-Accords landscape with quiet pragmatism. Both maintain cold but vital ties with Israel and have leveraged the new regional energy infrastructure to their benefit. Yet they remain wary of being sidelined by Gulf-Israel tech diplomacy, where their geopolitical heft is less visible.

Meanwhile, Iran and its proxies in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen continue to push back, painting the Accords as elite-driven betrayals of the Arab street. A two-speed Middle East is emerging: one bloc integrated through innovation and normalization; the other united in resistance, with Iran at the helm. It is a recipe for future flashpoints.

China’s Shadow and the Multipolar Game

The elephant—or rather, the dragon—in the room is China. As Washington doubled down on Middle East alliances through normalization, Beijing quietly expanded its footprint, brokering a thaw between Iran and Saudi Arabia and pouring billions into Gulf infrastructure projects under its Belt and Road Initiative.

This raises uncomfortable questions: Is the U.S. still the indispensable architect of Middle East order? Or has it become just one of several patrons? If normalization is contingent on American diplomacy and arms deals, then a multipolar Middle East may dilute the Accords’ influence over time.

Conclusion: Mirage, Revolution—or Managed Transition?

The Abraham Accords have done something unprecedented: they’ve operationalized pragmatism in a region long dominated by zero-sum ideologies. Trade is up, planes are flying, synagogues are being built in the Gulf. There is, undeniably, progress.

But peace built on economic metrics and smart diplomacy alone cannot endure. The Accords’ great innovation—normalization without resolution—may also be their Achilles heel.

As Trump eyes Saudi Arabia, and China courts the region’s swing states, the Middle East is entering a new diplomatic era—messy, multipolar, and increasingly transactional.

The Abraham Accords may yet evolve into a sustainable framework for regional cooperation. But unless they find space for Palestinian agency, political inclusivity, and multilateral balance, they risk becoming what the desert has always been full of: mirages, beckoning with promise, elusive upon approach.