Diplomacy with Iran is back

Iran today is a nuclear threshold state.

Those who championed saber rattling and uncompromising confrontation only have themselves to blame. In 2015, the US signed a historic, seven-party agreement with Iran, pressing the country to agree to cripple its nuclear capabilities, install 24/7 monitoring systems, ship out all highly enriched uranium, and destroy enrichment facilities.

Then, in 2018, Donald Trump, cheered on by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, withdrew from the nuclear agreement (JCPOA) that had been signed three years earlier. According to all intelligence agencies, Iran was in compliance with the terms until that point.

This withdrawal halted the close international oversight of the Iranian nuclear program and freed Iran to pursue accelerated enrichment and press closer to nuclear weapon capabilities.

Moreover, it allowed Russia and China to return and strengthen their old alliances with Iran, thereby making new American sanctions much less effective.

One of the consequences of abandoning the nuclear deal was the election of Ibrahim Raisi, the hardliner and uncompromising figure, as the president of Iran. He said moderate leaders were foolish to trust the West, and he was proved right. His election signaled Iran’s refusal to return to the negotiating table.

Only after Raisi’s death in a helicopter crash in 2024 did a window for change open again, when Supreme Leader Khamenei allowed the establishment of the Pezeshkian government, which is clearly more pragmatic and open to negotiations with the West.

However, for the Biden administration, which slow-walked diplomacy and failed in its attempts to return to the deal, the move came too late. Iran was already waiting for the results of the next U.S. elections.

Now, President Trump 2.0, who previously abandoned diplomacy, has chosen to return to it. In a statement he made during Netanyahu’s visit to the White House, Trump announced his intention to begin direct talks with Iran this coming Saturday.

Seven years after announcing the withdrawal from the nuclear agreement, Trump is returning to the diplomatic path with Iran. He recognizes that a deal is the only way to prevent a military nuclear Iran and a potential war, but it’s a path that Netanyahu has made one of his life’s missions to thwart.

Trump understands that Israel is incapable of destroying the Iranian nuclear project, even with American approval and armament for an attack, and that the U.S. itself lacks the capability to destroy the Iranian nuclear infrastructure surgically, especially after Iran has accumulated enough enriched uranium for a bomb.

The only military way to eliminate the Iranian nuclear project is through a long war and an American ground invasion of Iran, a move that contradicts Trump’s isolationist worldview and has become very unpopular in the U.S. after the fiascos of the second Bush administration in Iraq and Afghanistan.

A war with Iran, it’s worth pointing out, would be catastrophic for all involved. A regional superpower of 85 million people, three times the physical size of Iraq, and with a far more developed military, promises to deliver a brutal, sprawling regional conflict.

The Prime Minister, who traveled to Washington in 2015 to attack President Obama from the podium of Congress over the promotion of the nuclear deal, sat this week in silence beside Trump as he announced the return of diplomacy.

It was a symbolic image: decades of bluster, speeches, gimmicks, and political maneuvers evaporated in that quiet moment in the Oval Office. Like prey that realized it was caught, Netanyahu understood that his options had run out.

After countless praises for Trump and his leadership, he cannot sabotage the negotiations, as he tried to do in the past with Obama. He has no option to bypass the administration and enlist the help of the Democratic opposition. Now, he must cooperate or be thrown under the wheels of the speeding train.

“If diplomacy can ensure that Iran does not have a nuclear weapon, that would be a good thing,” Netanyahu said upon hearing Trump’s plans—words we never thought we would hear from someone who has championed the use of force against Iran.

Israel’s regional partners, led by the Gulf states, are also not interested in a military confrontation with Iran and prefer a diplomatic solution, as any escalation would directly harm them and their economies. Just as they support ending the futile war in Gaza, the release of hostages, and normalization agreements, they also seek a diplomatic approach towards Tehran.

Saudi Arabia, Iran’s regional nemesis, has now opened an unprecedented direct diplomatic dialogue aimed at thawing tensions.

Ironically, it is Trump, the man who abandoned diplomacy and led to regional extremism and turned Iran into a near-nuclear state, who is bringing US-Iran relations back to a diplomatic path, much to the chagrin of Netanyahu’s government, but for the sake of broader regional stability and his dealmaking image.

Israel would do well to choose to help the Americans to reach an agreement. When Obama was negotiating, Israel chose to sabotage it, and thus the diplomatic and intelligence intimacy between the US and Israel that is so important to us was harmed.

This time, it would be wise for us to be team players in the diplomatic efforts and avoid the potential capriciousness of an unpredictable president. It would also be wise for Israel to assist the Trump administration in creating a political horizon for the Palestinians, thereby taking away Iran’s excuse for their regional subversion.

The time has come for us to understand that diplomacy is a central tool in national security with Iran and in general.