Do You See the Political Cup Half Empty – or Half Full?

If you read any newspaper (including this one) or receive your news from any other media venue, you’re likely to get whiplash. On almost every news topic or specific event, one item will show you how badly things turned out – and the next (or accompanying one), how it’s actually quite positive. And if your news medium of choice doesn’t do this, then consuming two papers or TV channels or social media apps (of different ideological stripes) will do the job quite well.

That’s not a problem; it’s actually a very positive phenomenon because reality isn’t simple or straightforward. This is not to say that everything is both good and bad; there are the rare outcomes or events that are truly one or the other. But generally, the true situation is decidedly mixed.

Then where’s the problem? YOU are the problem. That’s not “you” specifically but rather human beings, or better yet: human psychology. We like to see the world as straightforward: she’s great; he’s awful; that’s terrible; this is terrific. So I’m going to take this opportunity to look at a few recent news items dealing with Israel and show you how they are really this and that.

1- The US midterm elections: Several anti-Zionist candidates won significant victories, as congresspersons and even mayors and governors. The last two don’t have too much authority to do a lot for or against Israel, but a House Representative certainly can. But the real situation in this new Congress is quite positive. Don’t believe me? You want numbers? Pro-Israel Democrats (House and Senate) won 85 of 87 races (98%!) – and add to that 27 pro-Israel Senators still serving their term of office. Conversely, DSA (Democratic Socialists of America) totals in both houses of Congress? 11 altogether. The ratio of hardline Israel supporters to anti-Zionist legislators: 10 to 1.

Is this bad for Israel? Here too, yes and no. On the one hand, it’s not a good sign when anti-Israel sentiment increases in America’s national legislature – and America’s two largest cities (NYC and LA) are now run by Socialists (one can add Washington, D.C., Seattle, and Providence to that list). But the picture can also be seen as a net positive for Israel because the vast majority of Democratic victors are moderates, many of whom are active Israel supporters and the rest willing to give Israel the benefit of the doubt on most issues.

Moreover – and here’s where the matter becomes interesting, the fact that the Democrats now have a huge majority in Congress, reduces (or even eliminates) any leverage the anti-Zionist newbies might have been able to use to move Congress in an anti-Israel direction. Bottom line: as a possible trend towards the future, this American election could be a harbinger of bad things to come; from the standpoint of the next two years (at least), Israel can breathe relatively easily from the American election results.

2- Anti-Semitism in America: There’s no denying it – anti-Semitic incidents have increased throughout the United States. “Zio” has become a catchphrase, subbing for the “Yid” or “Jewboy” of yesteryear. Synagogues have been defaced and/or suffering protests outside their doors. The situation seems dire.

But if so, how does one explain the fact that more Jews than ever were elected to high office? Among them: (Medical) Doctor Amy Acton, becoming Ohio’s first Jewish governor-elect; US Senator Jon Ossoff, a Jewish Democrat, easily won reelection in Georgia – a very conservative, Christian state; Colorado Attorney General Phil Weiser won his race for governor as did Gov. J.B. Pritzker who cruised to victory in Illinois. At the top of this Jewish heap: Gov. Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania – in his case by a whopping 22% margin, making him a prime Democratic presidential candidate in 2028. Once again, the headlines (anti-Semitism rampant) scream one thing; the political reality reflects something quite different.

3- Israel’s election results: Let’s start with the negatives. If you’re on the Right, this was a serious spanking. The Likud went from 33 seats to 27, but far worse, its wider governing coalition has nothing near a majority to be able to continue in office. Where’s the good news (for the Right)? In the mirror image of the Opposition. It won a resounding majority (by Israel standards) of 67 of 120 seats (good news if you’re in the Center-Left) – but even so it will be extremely hard to cobble together a coalition, given the approaches of the present Opposition’s constituent parties. And if it does so by coalescing with the ultra-Orthodox, that will entail breaking a few significant campaign promises.

Why? Eisenkot seems to be willing to form a “minority government” with the two Arab parties providing support from the outside, but Lieberman won’t countenance any government relying on any Arab party. Surprisingly, he’s willing to have the Haredi parties join, but that’s highly problematic for Bennett-Lapid with their 12 Knesset seats. If Eizenkot doesn’t succeed (and Bibi & Co. don’t have the Knesset numbers to set up a government) the result will be… new elections sometime in the late Spring.
Good news for Bibi & Company? Again, yes and no. Yes: it’s hard to see them doing worse in a future election (probably a bit better), and they’ve got several more months to “rule”. But those quote marks around “rule” are the bad news for Bibi et al because with a majority of 67 Knesset seats the Opposition could pass important legislation that Bibi has worked hard to avoid: the Draft Law, and the Oct. 7 Commission of Inquiry.

In short, the present Government and the (still) Opposition both are sitting on good news and bad news. But you would be hard put to find any single news item or analysis that presents the good and the bad here in the same package.

4- The end of US military aid to Israel: The recent announcement that such aid will cease in a year or two might seem at first glance to be an unmitigated disaster for Israel: $4 Billion lost! But not so fast. First, it’s not clear whether all such aid will cease – because most of that money has to be spent in the US i.e., supporting the American military-industrial complex. Will it give up such largesse without a fight? I doubt it. Second, there’s a large political gain here for Israel as it removes one of the main arguments that American anti-Zionists keep throwing at it: “Couldn’t such money be put to better use supporting poor Americans instead of well-off Israel?”

Finally, $4 billion sounds like a lot of money for a small country like Israel, but economically the country punches way beyond its population weight; it’s really only a couple of drops in Israel’s budget bucket which in 2026 is $271 billion. Thus, American military aid constitutes a mere 1.5% of the country’s annual outlay – not exactly a resounding hit to its pocketbook.

If you have read this far, your head might be spinning. Which is precisely the problem: reality is very complex and confusing, while we like our info and news served straight up without all the “yes, buts” and “on the other hands.” I can only try to comfort you with one of my favorite Talmudic axioms (Eruvin, 13b): “elu v’elu divrei Elohim khayim” – this opinion and that opinion are both the words of God.