Elections Didn’t Use to Matter for Developed Countries. Now They Do

A thin line between politics and economics used to be a working definition of a developing country. Indeed, untested domestic response mechanisms made these states particularly vulnerable to vagaries of political life. Mature economies, on the other hand, were a different breed. Effective checks and balances, independent central banks, rigorous media, and professional bureaucracy provided emergency backstops when needed. Such institutional guardrails absorbed shocks, insulated the economy, and preserved the system. Boring but effective. Democracy triumphed.  Nothing extraordinary normally happened when you cast your vote or didn’t.

Major disagreements rested in the past. After all, it was not 1860 when the election of Abraham Lincoln plunged the young American republic into a civil war. A new social contract was devised making human rights, equal protection, and pursuit of happiness as pedestrian as running water. Meanwhile, collective memories of the past – with glaring wounds from communism, nationalism, and fascism – forged a shared vision of the future.

It did not matter who was at the steering wheel in Number 10, the White House, or Élysée Palace precisely because you did not expect the driver to take a hard right or left. Differences were marginal. For instance, containment of the USSR continued unaffected despite different US administrations until the former collapsed giving birth to 15 independent republics. Indeed, elections didn’t matter much for most developed nations as an era of great moderation prevailed. Then something happened.

Houston, we have a problem

Under Conservatives, the UK left the EU. Following a four-year transition period, the country lost an unfettered access to the world’s largest single market area. A revolving door of British prime-ministers rendered the government rudderless at critical historic junctures. Neoliberal experimentation of Liz Truss & Co. hammered the last pieces of public trust, spooked the markets, and practically crashed the economy. All a consequence of self-inflicted wounds.

Across the Atlantic, Roe v. Wade was repealed, overturning the constitutional right to abortion. American men were finally in total control of both their penises and female reproductive organs. In an apocalyptic turn of events, the Capitol was stormed. For the first time in history, the beacon of American democracy dimmed, sending shockwaves to all corners of the world. Such sabotage on American soil was beyond foreign nemeses. It was home cooked. An act of domestic terrorism, to be precise.

Europe is polarized. The New Popular Front and the National Rally are enmeshed in an existential battle tearing the French republic apart. Alternative für Deutschland, the far-right group in Germany, has climbed from obscurity and is now the second most popular party.

Meanwhile, the scope and magnitude of challenges is growing. Domestically, rising deficits and national debts jeopardize prosperity. Sovereign credit outlooks deteriorate. France, the second largest economy in the EU, recently dropped a notch in the S&P ratings due to the spiraling public spending. The US national debt is on course to eclipse $35 trillion, exceeding 123% of the GDP.

Secular foundations of democracies are under question.

Internationally, a trade war with China is imminent. Prolonged confrontation with Russia is inevitable. Containment of Iran is urgent. Add to this Molotov cocktail unprecedented transformation of the Global South. Per se, the rise of the rest is commendable and should be celebrated. However, the world economy is going to be different with emerging markets and developing countries accounting for almost 60% of global GDP on PPP basis last year compared to just 33% in 1980.

At home, the political center has cratered. There is now an irreconcilable gulf in how different candidates plan to neutralize these threats. Even the moderates are imitating the extreme right and left to appear tough and gain power. Fill in the blanks with Trump, Harris, Macron, Le Pen, Farage for a mental exercise.

In short, this is no ordinary time. The stakes are high as never before. So, I say onto my friends and colleagues in the US, UK, and other countries with democratic governments: Vote as if your life depended on it, because it does. Do not take the trajectory of your countries for granted. There is no autopilot in a democracy.  You’ve got to do your own peddling.