Ethiopia’s Ambassador Misreads the Geopolitics of the Horn of Africa
The recent interview given by Ethiopia’s Junior Ambassador to Israel, Tesfaye Yetayeh Anteneh, on i24NEWS raises important questions about Ethiopia’s strategic understanding of Somaliland and the wider Horn of Africa.
The Junior ambassador reportedly argued that Ethiopia cannot recognize Somaliland because Somalia might demand the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops, potentially allowing Al-Shabaab to strengthen its position and threaten regional security.
Although Ethiopia’s security concerns are legitimate, this argument presents an overly narrow assessment of the region’s geopolitical realities. Ethiopia’s foreign policy should be guided by a comprehensive evaluation of its national interests, not primarily by fear of how another government might react.
Al-Shabaab remains a serious threat to Somalia and regional stability. Ethiopia therefore has legitimate reasons to maintain effective counterterrorism measures and protect its borders.
However, suggesting that recognition of Somaliland would inevitably lead to the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops and allow Al-Shabaab to seize power is a speculative conclusion, not an established outcome.
Military cooperation, diplomatic recognition, and bilateral security agreements are separate policy instruments. Their consequences would depend on negotiations, existing commitments, and decisions by the governments concerned.
Puntland’s successful military operations against extremist militants, particularly Islamic State-linked fighters, demonstrate the strength of regional security forces and their ability to achieve significant results without direct leadership from Somalia’s Federal Government. These operations highlight the militants’ vulnerabilities and challenge the argument that regional security depends entirely on federal military involvement. However, Puntland’s campaign has primarily targeted Islamic State, and Al-Shabaab remains a separate ongoing security threat.
Ethiopia needs a security strategy that can withstand different political scenarios rather than one that depends entirely on maintaining a particular military arrangement in Somalia.
The ambassador’s argument overlooks Somaliland’s geographical and economic importance.
Somaliland has maintained its own governing institutions and security structures since restoring its declared independence in 1991. Its location along the Gulf of Aden and its port of Berbera offer Ethiopia potential opportunities to diversify its maritime trade routes.
As a landlocked country with substantial import and export requirements, Ethiopia has a legitimate interest in obtaining reliable, commercially viable access to the sea. Berbera could support trade, logistics, infrastructure investment, and regional economic integration.
Recognition would not automatically guarantee these benefits, and any relationship would require carefully negotiated agreements. Nevertheless, Ethiopia should assess Somaliland as a potential strategic and economic partner, not merely as a source of diplomatic complications.
The important question is whether a closer relationship could advance Ethiopia’s long-term interests while managing the risks associated with its relationship with Mogadishu.
The Horn of Africa is experiencing growing geopolitical competition involving Egypt, Somalia, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Eritrea, and other regional and international actors.
The rivalry between Egypt and Ethiopia, particularly over the Nile and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, makes regional developments especially important to Addis Ababa.
Egypt’s growing engagement with Somalia deserves careful assessment but claims about specific military deployments near Ethiopia’s borders must be verified before being treated as established facts.
Ethiopia should therefore consider the full regional picture: its maritime interests, border security, diplomatic relationships, and the activities of competing powers.
The January 2024 Ethiopia–Somaliland memorandum of understanding and the December 2024 Ankara Declaration between Ethiopia and Somalia also form part of this complex diplomatic landscape. Ethiopia must consider its existing commitments while examining all lawful and practical options for reliable maritime access.
A comprehensive foreign policy must evaluate both the risks of acting and the strategic costs of inaction.
Master Ambassador, Your Words Are Not Necessarily Your Country’s Entire Policy
An ambassador represents his country abroad, and his public statements influence how international audiences understand its strategic thinking.
