Europe has completely lost control
Countries have no allies anymore—only interests.
Trump, Putin, and the Others: When the EU’s Strategic Compass Points to Nowhere—What If It Were True?
A doctrine born for the wrong war, or how we moved from the rule of Law to rights enforced by Force, from Morality to permanent Deal-making
In March 2022, still reeling from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the European Union adopted its so-called Strategic Compass, meant to guide its foreign and security policy through 2030.
The diagnosis was clear: Russia was the central threat, and the response had to be a shift toward hard power—military capabilities, protection of trade routes, defense of borders.
Four years later, the compass of this very old model has lost its bearings. That framework has turned against the EU itself. Since then, the list has grown: the Middle East, Venezuela, Iran. The Union’s main—if not only—reaction has been to urge the parties involved to show “restraint.”
It has become the ultimate weapon, alongside nuclear deterrence. Beyond that, Europe remains a spectator, for lack of better options.
We are now being persuaded that the most immediate threat to Europe’s vital interests no longer comes from Moscow, apparently, but from Washington. Is that really the case—or just another vision, another reality?
When the United States Strikes Maritime Routes
While Europe’s compass was fixed on the East, targeting Russia as a disruptor of global trade, it was the U.S. military that recently seized an oil tanker in the North Atlantic, invoking unilateral sanctions against Venezuela and Russian oil—and, of course, its well-understood vital interests. Sanctions oblige.
In other words: it is not Russia alone, but also the United States, demonstrating its ability to control, interrupt, or redirect Europe’s maritime trade flows.
To be heard and feared, one must be powerful.
For a Union that made the “security of strategic routes” a pillar of its doctrine, the irony is brutal.
Greenland: A Red Line Crossed
More troubling still, the direct territorial threat to the EU no longer comes from the East, but could come from the West. Time to find a new compass supplier.
Donald Trump’s statements about Greenland—a territory of the Kingdom of Denmark, an EU member state—have shattered a taboo:
a U.S. president openly contemplating the acquisition, pressure, or even occupation of European territory. Unless, of course, this is just another deal. A new worldwide marketing strategy—New Deal, American-style, so say some analysts..
The White House did not deny it.
Trump’s spokesperson confirmed that military deployment remains an option.
This is not a peripheral crisis. It is a geopolitical earthquake.
Washington Becomes the Number-One Risk Factor
As Mujtaba Rahman (Eurasia Group) puts it,
“the main risk to NATO and EU cohesion is no longer Russia in Ukraine, but—so it seems—American ambitions in the Arctic.” Could that be rue ?
Even Canada is breaking into a cold sweat, waiting for the next statement from the White House.
The United States has the full range of levers at its disposal:
• economic pressure
• military presence via NATO
• strategic blackmail
• and even the outright purchase of territory
Europe, by contrast, has no plan, no doctrine, and no credible deterrent in this scenario.
An EU Frozen in Yesterday’s War
Faced with this strategic rupture, Brussels carries on… as if nothing had happened, business as usual….
While Trump puts pressure on a member state,
the European Commission goes off to celebrate the Cypriot presidency of the Council.
No crisis summit.
No strategic statement.
No response.
In Paris, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom discuss “guarantees” for Ukraine.
Greenland is mentioned… on the sidelines.
The final statement?
A masterclass in political emptiness. Meanwhile, the Commission President signs the Mercosur agreement—an agreement France suddenly realized it was, after all, opposed to. Another low blow from the compass.
The Baltic Illusion and American Mimicry
At the same time, Lithuania calls for tougher action against Russia’s “shadow fleet” in the Baltic Sea.
But when the United States engages in maritime policing in the North Atlantic, it barely raises an eyebrow in the East—on the contrary, it becomes a model. Yesterday’s exception becomes today’s common practice.
Europe no longer reasons in terms of law or sovereignty,
but in terms of alignment with the dominant power, as it sees it.
The Strategic Compass: A Machine Spinning in Place
On paper, the EU’s Strategic Compass is a bureaucratic gem:
• rapid deployment
• defense industry
• cyber defense
• global partnerships
• billions invested
• missions on every continent
But it rests on a premise that is now false:
that the main threat lies outside the West.
The Greenland crisis reveals exactly the opposite.
Weakening Russia, Ignoring America
Internal EU documents, particularly from the EUISS, reveal a strategic obsession:
weakening Russia through regional pressure, information, influence, and sanctions.
Europe has built its entire security policy around that objective.
Meanwhile, it has allowed the United States to become the true asymmetric actor—capable of shaping law, alliances, and even territories… at no political cost.
Greenland, or the Moment of Truth
The European statement of January 6, 2026, is telling:
it asserts that the Arctic is a priority,
recalls NATO’s presence,
repeats that the United States is an “essential partner”…
and concludes meekly that only Denmark and Greenland can decide.
Possible translation:
if Washington acts, Europe will look the other way.
A Phantom Sovereignty
Public commentary puts it bluntly:
European armies depend on American systems—
F-35s, Patriots, software, energy, markets.Without a green light from Washington,
there is no deterrence.
The EU’s Strategic Compass is broken.
It points to a world that no longer exists.
At the same time, a recent statement by the German chancellor has gone largely unnoticed. He expressed hope that a rapprochement with Russia could be achieved in the long term.
“Russia is a European country,” the chancellor stated.
“If we manage to find a balance with Russia over the long term, if peace prevails, if freedom is guaranteed, if we succeed in all this… then this European Union, then we in the Federal Republic of Germany, will have passed a new test,” he added. There are a lot of IF…
(Reuters)
Conclusion: Europe Facing Its Own Reflection
The European Union built a doctrine to resist Russia.
But the decisive test comes from its ally.
Trump is not an anomaly.
He is a revealer.
Which should finally allow Europe to grasp that the world has changed—and is still changing.
And Europe discovers, too late, that its strategic sovereignty was mostly a PDF document.