The Blogs: Expanding the Abraham Accords

September 15th, 2020. Amid the despair of the COVID-19 pandemic, a light emerged in the darkness. At the White House, with a jubilant President Donald Trump watching on, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu signed historic normalization agreements with the foreign ministers of the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain.

Unlike the peace treaties with Jordan in 1994 and Egypt in 1979, these treaties were meant to bring about a warm peace—with close cooperation on security and defense—and deeply valuable trade relationships.

Direct flights were quickly established between Tel Aviv and Dubai, which included another historic first. El Al planes were allowed to fly through Saudi airspace on their way to the Emirates.

By the end of the year, Morocco and Sudan had joined the ranks of the Abraham Accords nations. Oman, and more importantly, Saudi Arabia, were seen to be candidates for the next expansion of the accords.

However, Oman postponed its normalization of relations with the Jewish state until after the US Presidential Elections that year.

The death of Oman’s former leader, Sultan Qaboos, who invited Prime Minister Netanyahu for a cordial visit in 2018, seems to have forestalled any normalization with that country, at least for the time being.

Following the election of Joe Biden as President, the momentum for normalization seemed to stall. Trump achieved four treaties in five months. Biden achieved zero in four years.

Trump’s return to office this year has restored hopes for further expansion of the Abraham Accords, but that prospect is complicated by the ongoing war in Gaza, which has seriously harmed Israel’s image in the Arab world.

Prior to the attacks on October 7th, there was significant discussion of an impending addition of Saudi Arabia to the Abraham Accords. This would set a precedent for further normalization, potentially ending the broader Arab-Israeli conflict.

In addition, Libyan Foreign Minister Najla al-Mangoush met with Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen in August 2023, in Rome. However, al-Mangoush was fired when reports of this meeting were leaked, and she was forced to flee the country.

Since the attacks on October 7th, Saudi normalization has been put on the backburner.

This should not be interpreted as the Saudi regime turning against Israel. The reality is that, as the Libya incident demonstrated, the Arab street has remained decidedly opposed to Israel. This has only been exacerbated by the war in Gaza.

Until recently, the Saudi public had been incited for decades against Israel by their own government. Now, when Saudis watch Al Jazeera, a Qatari owned and controlled channel, they see scenes of destruction in Gaza, labelled by that channel as “genocide.”

If Saudi Arabia were to normalize relations with Israel at this time, it would be likely that large protests would break out due to Israel’s unpopularity among the Saudi people. The Saudi government is trying to remake the country into a significant power with its “Vision 2030” initiative, and any domestic instability would be detrimental to these aims.

In order to achieve Saudi normalization, it has become clear that Israel will have to end the war. President Trump is ready, willing, and able to make Saudi-Israeli peace a reality, but it is clear that Saudi Arabia will not agree to this until the war is over.

Not pursuing this treaty would be rewarding Hamas. On October 7th, Saudi normalization seemed imminent. According to a recent report by the Wall Street Journal, Sinwar decided to launch the attack at that time in order to derail a peace treaty. We should not let Sinwar’s ambition materialize. An end to the war that releases the hostages and facilitates Saudi-Israeli normalization could be reasonably portrayed as a victory.

Prime Minister Netanyahu should consider this prospect. He knows that his coalition will fall if he agrees to this. Ben-Gvir and Smotrich have made that clear. However, if he can return the remaining hostages, achieve Saudi normalization, and revitalize the economy by allowing reservists to return to their jobs, his popularity will increase enough that an electoral victory would certainly be possible, especially for a man who seems to be politically unkillable.

Hamas has been thoroughly destroyed as a military force, and it seems that they will not be capable of posing a threat for several years. Any provocation could serve as a justification for Israel returning to fighting, without the hostage dilemma to consider. And if Hamas doesn’t violate the ceasefire, as long as we are vigilant, that is fine. If Hamas continues to control Gaza, the victims will be Gazans, not Israelis. Essentially, it is more their problem than ours.

This move will also improve his relationship with President Trump, who seeks an end to the war and a Saudi normalization treaty, and whose relationship with the Israeli Prime Minister seems to have deteriorated in recent weeks.

Once the war is ended, and once a Saudi normalization treaty has been signed, other nations are likely to follow in joining the circle of peace.

Syria, under the leadership of Ahmed al-Sharaa, despite his concerning background, has expressed seemingly genuine interest in normalization. Syria is in terrible condition right now, and most Syrians are fed up with conflict after more than 13 years of civil war. There seems to be a genuine appetite for peace.

Israel could play a role in the reconstruction of Syria. It could offer work permits to Syrians, and invest in the country’s redevelopment. This should all be achieved through the framework of a peace treaty.

Israel already has leverage in these negotiations. Following the fall of the Assad regime, Israel captured the UN buffer zone between the two countries on the Golan Heights, along with the strategic summit of Mount Hermon and some areas past the buffer zone, in Syrian territory. Israel has also been attacking military assets in Syria.

In exchange for normalization, Israel could offer a withdrawal of troops from these areas, an end to the aerial attacks on Syrian military assets, and a lifting of sanctions, paving the way for significant economic cooperation.

Since October 7th, Turkey has also become increasingly hostile to Israel. It has severed diplomatic and trade ties under the leadership of President Erdogan, an Islamist. However, Israel and Turkey have mutual allies and joint interests, and this has facilitated close cooperation in the past.

With help from Azerbaijan, a close ally of both Israel and Turkey, and from the United States under President Trump, a friend of both Netanyahu and Erdogan, relations can and should be smoothed over.

If Turkey was to revitalize its ties with Israel, and if Syria and Saudi Arabia were to establish ties, incredible trade opportunities could be established. Land corridors for trade, travel, and natural resources could be established from Europe to Israel for the first time, running through Turkey and Syria, and from Israel to the Arab Gulf, through Jordan and Saudi Arabia. Road and rail links could be established from Europe all the way to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, running through Israel. New pipelines for oil and natural gas could be established on the same route.

Saudi Arabia’s futuristic “NEOM” project is close to Israel, and with a normalization agreement, Israel could link itself to this project, and Israeli companies could help to build and develop it.

This could create strong and valuable trade connections, deepening the relationship between Europe and the Middle East, and between Israel and its Arab neighbors.

Lebanon, as far-fetched as it may sound, is also a contender to join the Abraham Accords. Hezbollah has been devastated by the Israeli campaign against it, which eliminated almost all of its leaders and took thousands of terrorists off the battlefield with sophisticated exploding pagers and walkie-talkies and a thorough bombing campaign.

This has enabled the Lebanese government to begin to reassert its sovereignty, especially under the leadership of new President Joseph Aoun. Israel has been engaged in French and American mediated talks with Lebanon, aimed at agreeing upon a border, facilitating the release of Lebanese prisoners in Israel, and negotiating the withdrawal of Israeli forces from all of Lebanese territory, specifically the five points that are still occupied by Israeli forces.

According to a senior Israeli official, Israel’s final ambition in these talks is a full peace treaty.

Other Muslim countries, like Indonesia, Malaysia, and Bangladesh could also sign normalization agreements with Israel as part of this broader trend and process.

European nations and the United States have poor to nonexistent ties with Iran. Turkey has historically had an adversarial relationship with Iran. Azerbaijan is a similar case. The new Syrian government wants to purge the country of Iranian influence. Lebanon has similar ambitions, seeking to counter Hezbollah and Iranian interference and reassert their sovereignty throughout all of their territory. Israel has been countering Iran for decades. Jordan is threatened by Iranian efforts to turn the country into a proxy, overthrowing the monarchy. Egypt’s government is menaced by the Muslim Brotherhood, of which Hamas is an offshoot. Saudi Arabia and Iran have been locked in a proxy conflict for domination of the region for decades. The U.A.E. has a dispute with Iran over several islands in the Persian Gulf, and relations are similarly adversarial. As is clear, all of these countries have a vested interest in countering Iran jointly.

All of these countries, and more, could form a new “Abraham Alliance,” as suggested by Prime Minister Netanyahu. This would serve as a bulwark against Iranian influence in the region and beyond, and would create an unprecedented atmosphere of peace in the region.

If these developments were to occur, they could create unprecedented pressure on the Palestinians to finally give up their genocidal ambitions, captured in the phrase “From The River to The Sea.” This could finally lead to a resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict, through the establishment of an autonomous Palestinian entity.

However, it is critical that in any settlement, Israel maintains control over security in the entire area between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea. A new Palestinian entity should have full power to govern itself, but no power to threaten Israel. Does this mean that it would not be a fully sovereign state? Yes. Maybe, if they are sufficiently isolated and pressured by their Arab brethren, the Palestinians will accede to this, realizing that they have no hope of destroying Israel.

The last Arab holdouts: Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iraq, may normalize relations given all of these developments, along with Yemen, if it ever acquires a functioning central government.

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An expansion of the Abraham Accords is absolutely critical for the future of Israel and the region as a whole, as it has the potential to create unprecedented peace and prosperity. However, in order to achieve this, Israel must end the war, while simultaneously freeing the hostages.