For Japan’s New PM, Helping Trump on Industrial Policy, Burden Sharing Is Vital
The stakes are high for the first official meeting between Japan’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi – – the country’s first female to hold the office – – and President Trump today in Tokyo.
Key to the meeting will be for Prime Minister Takaichi to establish a good relationship with Mr. Trump and to finalize the $500 billion in Japanese investment in the U.S. as stipulated in a trade deal that lowers Trump’s tariffs on the country to 15%.
Expectations are for Takaichi to seek to enrich the package with pledges to buy American natural gas, soybeans and Ford F150 pick-up trucks while promising to increase defense spending.
For the new Prime Minister who has long advocated for tougher national defenses against China, Ms. Takaichi is expected to adopt the strong national security and diplomatic approaches of her late mentor, former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
Mr. Abe was known for increases in defense spending, broadening the areas of responsibility of the Japanese Self-Defense Forces and establishing new security partnerships to deter Chinese aggression. He is also remembered as someone who successfully managed trade and defense spending tensions with Mr. Trump through gift giving, burgers, sumo wrestling and golf.
Along these lines, taking a page out of Mr. Abe’s playbook and inspiring faith on trade and defense with the mercurial American president will be an early test of Prime Minister Takaichi.
Ms. Takaichi will need to demonstrate that she will work with Mr. Trump to establish an American manufacturing renaissance for purposes of delivering economic security to Washington and its allies. This will involve making progress on determining how Japan will invest $550 billion into the United States.
In terms of defense policy, key to the process will be for Prime Minister Takaichi to show President Trump that she is a committed partner for building on the Trump-Abe legacy to make the Pacific more secure and prosperous.
This will include discussions over increased defense spending by Tokyo and Japan introducing a system to defend itself more independently. Additional items involve a loosening of restrictions on Japan’s defense exports as well as joint U.S.-Japan efforts with AI and developing next generation wireless standards.
Potential pitfalls to the initial Takaichi-Trump meeting include limits on Prime Minister Takaichi’s ability to increase defense spending given her fragile coalition government’s reliance on opposition parties for support. Such an outcome could anger President Trump and result in punitive measures.
Additionally, during a time of declining wages and high inflation for Japanese workers, Prime Minister Takaichi cannot be seen as acquiescing to Trump on his demands for total discretion on how the $500 billion of Japanese public funds are invested in the U.S.
In the coming weeks and months, Prime Minister Takaichi will need to make the case to the Japanese public how security threats from China and North Korea – – and possible flare ups from Mr. Trump – – require increased defense outlays and a deeper economic relationship with Washington.
Yet, first things first. For the initial October 28 meeting between the two leaders, getting the relationship off to a positive start is the order of the day for Prime Minister Takaichi.