Four reasons why escalation is unavoidable

1. Ground Operation – damned if you do, damned if you don’t

Israel backing down and not invading Gaza sounds like a good thing – except, only in theory. In an ideal world, Hamas and others would see it as a sign that Israel is willing to negotiate. A gesture of peace and reason.

In reality, it’s highly likely that Hamas and their backers are going to see it as a sign of weakness, a proud nation of Israel in an even greater chaos than they have thought. When your enemy is in chaos, you attack as fast, and as much, as you can, because you know your enemy won’t be weakened forever. Your objective is to cause as much damage, psychological and material, to the enemy as possible before your enemy fires back with a vengeance.

Don’t expect Hamas and its backers to stop now. Not going to happen.

If Israel invades, it’s going to be a show of force like Gaza has never seen before. This, in turn, will lead to an escalation and tragic deaths among Palestinian civilians. Still, as tragic as it is, Gaza ground war makes more sense than inaction.

2. Negotiations won’t work

People demand action and answers. Tortured hostages, all the senseless, brutal, deaths. Israeli citizens won’t settle for anything less. Negotiations are unrealistic, at least for now. Talks between Russia and Ukraine are a mirage for similar reasons. How do you expect Ukraine to negotiate with Russia when tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of Ukrainian children have been taken to Russia? This is a pipedream of some idealist who lives in a conference bubble.

For negotiations to be successful, you need someone respected by all sides to get involved. Someone who doesn’t take sides, at least not overtly. Someone with the power to enforce whatever is agreed on. King Solomon comes to mind. Sadly, there just isn’t anyone like that in 2023. Joe Biden? With all due respect, Joe Biden isn’t King Solomon.

3. Surprise attacks

All these day of rage announcements by Hamas, Hezbollah and others, are distractions. When they strike, it’ll be sudden and massive. There’s nothing worse than an emboldened jihadi and they are now as emboldened as ever. Expecting Hamas, and others, to just stop now and not capitalize on their terror is naive at best.

4. Terror-sponsoring-nations are loving what is happening 

And, as such, they will keep sponsoring groups like Hamas, and many others. Russia claims it’s for peace but if you look at what Russia is doing, I doubt you can call Russian actions peaceful. Don’t expect people in certain parts of the world to get it, though. They love Russia because they haven’t had the dubious pleasure of being Russia’s neighbor for hundreds of years. Call me a Russophobic Pole, I’m just stating the facts. Besides, my Russian is pretty fluent and I like Moscow as a city. I don’t like their twisted Z-ideology. Z clearly stands for zombirovani (zombified).

How is the war going to end? While it’s pointless to theorize about the details, there are too many factors to consider, there are three scenarios.

Local

Ground Operation goes ahead.

An exchange of fire between IDF, Hamas, other groups continues in the region. Other nations, such as Iran, don’t get officially involved. Still, there’s obvious behind-the-scenes support of terror groups by state actors.

Anti-Israeli sentiment is used as an excuse to target Jews across the world. Mentally unstable people, as well as lone wolves and terror cells, unleash their hatred on random Israeli citizens. Indeed, the recent death of a 6-year-old Palestinian-American boy who was stabbed to death near Chicago shows how twisted the world has become. When hatred poisons your mind, rationality goes out the window.

Gaza is a sea of ruins. Massive displacement of Palestinians that makes the hospital tragedy look like a minor event. Israeli infrastructure is largely intact.  No major Jewish exodus.

Regional

Ground Operation goes ahead.

Iran and other nations in the region get involved. The US supports Israel. Openly, or not, Russia and China support Iran and allies.

Gaza is a sea of ruins. Regime change in Iran. Israeli infrastructure is damaged, even badly, in places. It takes a while, but Israel rebuilds. A major Jewish exodus, including to countries such as Poland, where – in spite of propaganda and stereotypes – anti-semitism is minimal to non-existent. Many Jews return to help rebuild Israel after the war. Some Jews will never go back to Israel.

Global 

An eschatological, end-of-the-world, scenario.

Ground Operation goes ahead. Ukraine war worsens significantly.

No more proxy wars. Russia, China, the EU and America are openly in a state of war across the globe. Will anything survive? I don’t know. It depends on the scale of nuclear exchange. If tactical nuclear weapons are used on a limited basis, then the world is going to survive. Exclusion zones, like the one in Chernobyl, are going to be the new normal. Sadly, even if some of the world survives, the Middle East is going to be completely devastated in this scenario.

Let’s hope for the best and prepare for the worst. Israelis are extremely resourceful. When I read an article about Ehud Barak disguised as a brunette woman to kill Arafat’s deputy, I thought, ”Well, he must’ve really looked the part, then.”

A terrorist cell leader’s last thought about going to hell because a woman killed him.

A masterful strategy for Israel. An epic humiliation for the enemy.