From Iran to Gaza: Where Is Israel Heading After the ’12 Day War’?

The smoke still lingers over the skies of the Middle East. Still, it is already clear to all that the dramatic confrontation between Israel and Iran has altered the balance of power in the region – the question is to what extent and for how long.

The dramatic ceasefire agreement, achieved with significant and unprecedented American involvement, leaves heavy questions hanging in the air: Has Iran’s nuclear program truly been entirely destroyed? Will the blow suffered by Tehran force it to reconsider and halt its nuclear ambitions? Or is this merely a temporary tactical pause behind which the Ayatollah regime will regroup?

U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance stated upon announcement of the ceasefire that Iran “can no longer build a nuclear weapon because we destroyed their enrichment capabilities and their ability to convert enriched material into a nuclear weapon.” However, experts estimate that despite the extensive damage inflicted on the enrichment facilities themselves, portions of Iran’s 60%-enriched uranium stockpile, just one step short of weapons-grade, were likely transferred to alternative sites before the American strike and remain in Iran’s possession stored in mobile or unknown locations. This means that even with the severe damage to its enrichment centers, Tehran’s ability to restore its nuclear program within a relatively short period cannot be entirely ruled out.

Beyond the Iranian front, a larger question looms: how will this ceasefire affect the broader Iron Swords War? Fighting continues in Gaza, and 50 hostages are still held by Hamas, with at least 20 of them believed to still be alive. For the Israeli public, despite the significant achievement against Iran, it is difficult to speak of a successful conclusion to the war. The painful images of the hostages continue to haunt the national consciousness. Will the severe blow dealt to the Ayatollah regime give Israel additional maneuvering space to conclude the Gaza campaign? Will it create renewed pressure to rapidly end the war in exchange for the return of the hostages?

At this stage, two key political factors may determine the next steps: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political standing and his dynamic with President Donald Trump following the conclusion of the Iran campaign. Netanyahu, who has faced harsh public criticism since the disaster of October 7, now stands at a crossroads. If a devastating blow has indeed been dealt to Iran’s nuclear program, a goal Netanyahu has pursued for decades, he can now present the Israeli public with a historic security achievement. Such an achievement, combined with a sense of exhaustion following the dismantling of most of Hamas and Hezbollah’s infrastructure, may offer Netanyahu the best political exit point he has encountered since the outbreak of the war and perhaps even a platform to call for early elections.

And now to the United States. Trump, who led a dramatic and unprecedented move with direct American participation in the strike on Iran, is expected to demand his share in return: calm in the Palestinian arena, an end to the war in Gaza, and renewed progress toward normalization with Saudi Arabia and expansion of the Abraham Accords in general. Whether Netanyahu made prior commitments to Trump to end the Gaza campaign or not, American pressure is likely to intensify in the near future. Trump has made it clear that his Middle East priorities differ from those of previous administrations: creating a “New Middle East” centered on a historic agreement between America’s two key allies: Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Back in May, it should be recalled, President Trump expressed frustration over Prime Minister Netanyahu’s decision to launch a renewed campaign in Gaza. According to reports, the president believed this decision contradicted his plans to rebuild Gaza into “the Riviera of the Middle East” and described the renewed Gaza campaign as “a futile effort.” If Trump applied pressure on Netanyahu to end the Gaza front even before the Iran campaign, he is certainly expected to do so even more forcefully now that it has concluded.

If this indeed becomes the path forward, the Israeli public may find itself, after nearly two years of painful war, entering a much-needed process of healing: the return of the hostages, returning the mandate to the people, and, no less significantly, a return to everyday life after a prolonged period of abnormality.