Gaza: Exit Strategy
Some western democracies have once again scored a home goal with their latest proclaimed gesture politics in announcing recognition of a Palestinian state in September, if Israel, cast as the aggressive, does not agree to a ceasefire in Gaza and allow the aid agencies full access to the strip to feed the “starving millions”. Reluctantly, the British Prime Minister has hurriedly qualified Britain’s demands by adding the remaining hostages must be released and Hamas should have no further involvement in the governance of the Palestinian people. What Macron, Starmer, Carney have done, and a host of other international leaders, some of whom might be regarded as democratic, while others are certainly not, is to incentivise Hamas to delay agreeing to a ceasefire and holding on to the hostages for an indefinite period, hoping Israel will be anathematised by the international community. This plan assumes the pressure will increase on Israel, eventually winning over the Americans, and Israel will then be expected to agree to draconian terms. But the fickle, erstwhile allies of Israel may have seriously miscalculated the resolve of Israelis to safeguard their hard-won Jewish homeland.
Hamas will exploit the divisions among Israel’s purported friends and do nothing to advance negotiations for a ceasefire. There is little prospect any agreement will be reached between Israel and Hamas by September, and if the pledge of Starmer et al is not just hot air, then they will recognise an imaginary Palestinian states, a country without a united leadership, without defined borders and with few economic resources to make it viable; but that is the fantasy world in which we live now. There are also questions about the legality of such a recognition in international law, the Montevideo Convention being quoted by jurists.
What is patently clear is there will be no resolution of this long conflict between the de facto existence of Israel and the pipe-dream of a Palestinian state, something that could have been achieved many, many years ago, but through the duplicity and doctrinaire policies of the Palestinians has been thrown away. In the meantime, Israelis have got on with establishing settlements in the West Bank, deemed illegal by the United Nations but an understandable consequence of Palestinians blocking any chance of co-existence with the Jewish state. Jeremy Bowen, no friend of Israel, in commenting on Starmer’s announcement, regarding recognition of a Palestinian state, responded: “Thank you, but it’s too late”, and, perhaps, for the first time ever Bowen has shown prescience. It is too late for a two-state solution to the continuing war. So what should Israel do about the current situation?
In an earlier blog I commented Gaza could well be Israel’s Vietnam: easy to get into but difficult to get out of! Unfortunately the IDF has become bogged down in a hopeless position, being blamed by all and sundry for alleged crimes against civilians, unable to stabilise a volatile situation, fast losing the support of those who expressed some sympathy after the massacre of 7 October 2023, and stuck with the colossal demands of feeding over 2 million people, largely because of distrust of a corrupt and politically biased UNRWA.
The fate of the remaining hostages is unknown; some may be alive but, in reality, many would have died. Israel and America, to their credit, regard the lives of their citizens as very important, in stark contrast to Hamas and its proxies; but there comes a point when, for strategic reasons, Israel has to say enough of playing games with the lives of innocent people: the blood of the hostages is on the hands of Hamas.
The last thing Israel should do is exit Gaza as the Americans did in Vietnam: that sends the wrong message! Withdrawal should be measured, having mopped up any pockets of known terrorists centres. Before the IDF have left, a massive building programme should start to secure Israel’s border with Gaza: I have, in fact, posted this view previously. Having sealed off the population of Gaza, denying any Palestinians the right to work in Israel, responsibility for the territory should be handed over to the international community. There is legitimacy in this proposal. Gaza was ceded by Sharon in August 2005. In the twenty years since then the people of Gaza have been governed by the PLO and, after they were kicked out, by Hamas. Billions of dollars have been poured into Gaza to help establish a viable Palestinian enclave, but to no avail, since vast sums of foreign aid was appropriated by Hamas to further its ambition to wage war on Israel. The idea of Israel occupying part of Gaza is a serious mistake. The lessons of the Iraq war should not go unheeded. There are access points into Gaza from Egypt, so the territory can be supplied with all it needs by fellow Arab nations and the international community.
The other thorny issue is the West Bank. Should the Knesset vote to incorporate it into Israel? The West Bank is administered by the PLO, and Abbas’ party Fatah has a strained relationship with Hamas. There is always the possibility Hamas, having been defeated militarily, will carry on exerting political influence in the West Bank, in opposition to Fatah. Could the West Bank become another Gaza?