Gazan Population During Reconstruction

Embed from Getty Images

GAZAN POPULATION DURING RECONSTRUCTION: A Partial Movement to Gaza, West Bank, Detroit, and Chicago with a full Right to Return

INTRODUCTION
Countries in the Middle East and around the world have reacted strongly and negatively to President Trump’s proposal that Palestinians be moved permanently out of Gaza to be resettled to Egypt and Jordan, and with no Right of Return. Most countries see it as a form of ethnic cleansing and a political favor to Israel’s right wing Likud Netanyahu Coalition.

Yet, if movement is voluntary, the target places are appropriate and welcoming, there is a right to return to Gaza — to choose to stay or not in their accommodating target places, and Jihadist ideologues are screened out, it can be a positive policy for Palestinians on the road to a Palestinian State.

At a White House Press Conference for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump said, “We should go to other countries of interest with humanitarian hearts, and there are many of them that want to do this, and be willing to build domains that will ultimately be occupied by the 1.8 million Palestinians living in Gaza … The only reason Palestinians want to remain in Gaza is that they have no alternatives.”

Some observers claim that Trump was not serious about this suggestion but was a threatening way to force countries to comply with Trump’s and Netanyahu’s Middle East vision for Israeli control for the occupied territories. Shira Efron of the Israel Policy Forum writes that Trump’s unrealistic plan for a permanent transfer of Gaza’s population will “give Hamas time and space to rebuild, bolster its image as a defender of Palestinians and reassert its de facto control of the territory. In that scenario, another war is all but certain…” Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib, in the Atlantic, writes that Trump, instead of his unworkable real estate solution, could perform a positive role for Gaza by contributing rubble-removal equipment, find and eliminate unexploded munitions, and, with Arab countries, push Hamas into signing a 50 year truce with Israel. I think these are worthwhile to do but unfortunately there are still strong elements that want the war in Gaza to continue.

FOUR TARGET PLACES FOR SETTLEMENT DURING RECONSTRUCTION
This blog post suggests a different and friendly way to settle Gazans during reconstruction that would be advantageous for Palestinians, Israelis, countries in the Middle East, and the USA. Four places are suggested for Palestinian Gazans to voluntarily by choice be living permanently or temporarily while Gaza is reconstructed: Gaza itself, the West Bank territory, Detroit, Michigan along with the City of Dearborn, and Chicago, Illinois along with the Village suburb of Bridgeview – known as Little Palestine. Trump has weak population mix control over Egypt or Jordan but he does have major political and economic control over places in the USA.

The UN reports, in Feb. 4, 2025, that 92% of housing in Gaza is destroyed or damaged and 1.9 million people are in need of emergency shelter and essential household items. While Trump’s pointing out the dire conditions in Gaza seem mostly accurate, moving Palestinians out of Gaza to other countries in the Middle East is not necessarily an improvement for Gazans. Other Mideast countries are unlikely to provide a high quality of life for Gazans nor grant them free speech and land with sovereignty.

The first estimate is the maximum number of Gazans that could remain comfortably and safely in present Gaza during reconstruction. The UN reports average Gazan household size to be about 5. From February 2025 UN Data, it can be inferred that 38,000 of Gaza housing units are habitable. Assuming families doubled up, that would allow for 380,000 (38,000 habitable shelter units x 10) to remain in Gaza. How to accommodate the other 1,820,000 Gazans (2,200,000 Gazans – 380,000 in existing shelter units)?

If that 1,820,000 were split into three, it would be 607,000 people in each of three non-Gazan places. If more than 607,000 want to go to a place, a lottery could be run to reduce the excess over 607,000, or emergency shelter units could be put in place. If less than 607,000 wanted to go to one of the three places, those unused housing slots could be made available with extra resources to encourage Gazans to choose those places. In this plan, Gazans will always have the option to NOT leave to anywhere (even if above the safe limits) and stay in Gaza during reconstruction. After Gaza is rebuilt, original Gazan residents could return to Gaza, leaving the West Bank, Detroit or Chicago, or remain permanently in those places. In either case, a Palestinian State could still be created as a two-state solution or in a three provincial Israel-Palestine confederation, as I have described elsewhere.

WHY DETROIT AND CHICAGO WOULD WELCOME GAZANS
A key question is why would Detroit or Chicago each want to welcome 607,000 Palestinian Gazans as residents? I have lived in both Detroit and Chicago and I have found Palestinian people in those places mostly to be smart, friendly, entrepreneurial, industrious, law-abiding, and possessing a tasty and healthy cuisine. Both Detroit and Chicago have experienced declines in population that reduce their tax base and representation in Congress. Detroit’s population peaked to 1.85 million in 1950 down to to 638,000 in 2020. There are wide swaths of empty land and lots with abandoned buildings. In this digital age and in this political-economy climate where there is a strong desire to bring manufacturing industries back to the USA, job creation can occur to accommodate the new residents. And it could also accommodate existing Latin American and other immigrants.

WHY GAZANS WOULD WELCOME LIVING IN DETROIT AND CHICAGO
Another key question is why would half of Gazans want to live temporarily or permanently in Detroit and Chicago?  The answer is they would have access to a much higher quality of life than exists now in Gaza. Compared to the Gaza of today, they would have access to ample food, health care, education, shelter, and income earning opportunities for themselves and their children in a context of welcoming cultural familiarity.  This, coupled with a Right of Return, makes this a positive movement. During and after WWI and WWII, poor Blacks from the deep South came to Detroit and Chicago in an epic movement know as the Great Migration.  For Blacks during this period, Detroit and Chicago were called the “Promised Land”, a reference to biblical Israel.  Detroit and Chicago can be a “Promised Land” for Gazans and also lead to a State in the other “Promised Land” in the Middle East.

Those familiar with the history of Israel know, that in 1947, advocacy and political pressure by American Jews and their allies made possible the creation of the State of Israel by the UN General Assembly.  Gazans, augmenting their presence in the USA of today, have the potential for effective lobbying, and, demonstrating exemplary behavior, to increase the likelihood for a Palestinian State through promoting U.S. political support for it.

SCREENING OUT JIHADISTS
A smart pro-Israel colleague Ron Litchman wrote to me that he considers “most Gazans to be allies, enablers, supporters or sympathizers of Hamas. They may not have personally murdered or raped or pillaged, but they cheered when the savages did so in their name, because they share the jihadist obsession of destroying Israel.”

My reply is three fold. (1) A Palestinian polling center showed most Gazans in September 2024 believe Hamas’s decision to launch the October 7 massacre on Israel was incorrect. “57 percent of people surveyed in the Gaza Strip said the decision to launch the offensive was incorrect.” (2) Gazans have been political and physical victims of Hamas. Hamas is well known for killing Palestinians who express views sympathetic to co-existence with Israel and for not allowing free and fair elections in Gaza. It seems prudent, even for a person strongly sympathetic to co-existence, to overtly express alignment with Hamas, to preserve their and their families lives. (3) Any Gazans getting resources to move to a safer place, has to accept and sign the Singaporean Maintenance of Religious Harmony Act which defines the following as punishable offenses:
“Urging force or violence on the basis of religion, or against a religious group or its members; inciting feelings of enmity, hatred, ill-will or hostility against a religious group; and insulting the religion or wounding the religious feelings of another person.”

It is not the signing of an agreement that changes behavior. It is that violation of this agreement is the basis for penalties, including deportation. I suggest that signing this act also be made mandatory for all residents of the USA and Israel-Palestine. Violating this Act will make one subject to a fine or jail time and this offense will be entered into one’s official summary of their Criminal History Record (Rap Sheet).

CHICAGO NEEDS TO AUGMENT POPULATION
Chicago is in a similar situation as Detroit but less so. Chicago hit its population peak also in 1950, but at 3.6 million. Its current population is at 2.7 million, which is the same as its population 100 years ago in 1920. From 1950, Chicago experienced a 25% decline in population. Since 2014, population has declined each year.   Chicago also has wide swaths of empty land or lots with abandoned buildings, particularly in the South and West Sides and in the far south suburbs of Cook County.   In January 2025, S&P Global Ratings announced “the downgrade of Chicago’s general obligation bond rating from ‘BBB+’ to ‘BBB.’ This rating action resolved the negative credit watch the agency had assigned to the City.”  But this is in the Medium Risk category and just below this is what is called Junk Bonds.

CONCLUSION
This plan for positive placement of Gazan Palestinians is inspired by President Trump’s admonition that “We should go to other countries of interest with humanitarian hearts …”  I can’t think of other places that would be more humanitarian and welcoming to Gazans than Gaza itself, the West Bank territory, Detroit with its large number of Muslims, and Chicago with its large numbers of Palestinians and openness to immigrants. Key to this plan is its voluntary nature, a Right to Return, and that Hamas and other Jihadist ideology can be screened out, and for this population rearrangement to lead to a Palestinian State or Provincial Confederation.