Germany: The AfD Paradox or The Road to Power
When the Country’s Leading Party Remains Excluded from Power
We cannot remain indifferent to what is happening in Germany, our great neighbor and widely regarded, alongside France, as the other pillar of the European Union.
As the September regional elections approach, CDU leaders have repeatedly warned against any cooperation with the Alternative for Germany (AfD). For many conservative officials, an alliance with the party would constitute a historic break capable of undermining the very identity of the CDU itself.
Yet behind this public firmness lies a question that is becoming increasingly difficult to avoid: what happens when a party that the political establishment refuses to see in government gradually becomes one of the country’s leading electoral choices?
The question no longer concerns the AfD alone. It now concerns Germany itself. And whether some may like it or not, what concerns Berlin also concerns Paris. The Franco-German partnership—or the German-French partnership, depending on which side of the Rhine one happens to be standing—is deeply intertwined.
Eastern Germany: The Federal Republic’s Political Laboratory
Among Germany’s sixteen federal states, the AfD’s strongest bastions remain concentrated in the territories of the former East Germany. Saxony, Thuringia, Brandenburg, Saxony-Anhalt, and Mecklenburg–Western Pomerania have provided the party with its best electoral results for years.
This political geography is not accidental.
Eastern Germany followed a unique historical trajectory. After National Socialism came forty years of communist rule, followed by a reunification that was sometimes experienced more as an integration than as a true merger. For part of the eastern population, this succession of historical experiences fostered a more critical relationship toward institutions, the media, and major national consensuses.
Former East Germany has thus become the laboratory of a political challenge that now extends far beyond its own borders.
From a Regional Phenomenon to a National One
For a long time, Germany’s traditional parties were able to view the AfD as a regional exception.
That interpretation is becoming increasingly difficult to sustain.
The AfD is now gaining ground throughout the country. Concerns related to immigration, energy costs, deindustrialization, the war in Ukraine, and the declining economic prospects of certain social groups are fueling a dynamic that is no longer confined to eastern Germany.
The phenomenon resembles developments observed elsewhere in Europe. In France, the National Rally gradually ceased to be a peripheral force and became a national political player. In the United Kingdom, Reform UK appears to be following a similar trajectory. In the Netherlands, Austria, and Italy, sovereignist and national parties have become lasting features of the political landscape.
Germany is now following a similar path.
Ten Years of Growth Despite Strategies of Marginalization
One element deserves particular attention.
Since its electoral breakthrough, the AfD has faced an almost permanent strategy of political isolation. The refusal of coalition partnerships, criticism from major parties, constant media scrutiny, and debates over intelligence-service monitoring have not prevented its continued growth.
This does not necessarily mean that these strategies are ineffective or unjustified. However, it raises a question that is increasingly present in German public debate: why have the responses adopted so far failed to reverse the trend in a lasting way?
The question is no longer simply why the AfD is gaining support. It is also why those who claim to be containing that rise have been unable to do so.
The Weight of National Narratives
The immediate causes behind this evolution are often similar to those observed elsewhere: immigration, globalization, the energy crisis, and growing distrust of political elites.
Yet each country interprets these developments through the lens of its own history.
In France, the debate is tied to a nation that sees itself as the continuation of centuries of historical experience.
In the United Kingdom, it is linked to parliamentary sovereignty and the imperial legacy.
In Germany, it touches directly upon the foundations of the Federal Republic established after 1945.
This is why the rise of the AfD provokes a stronger reaction than in many other countries. For part of the German establishment, the issue is not merely a political platform but the very principles upon which postwar Germany was built.
The Firewall Paradox
In response to the AfD, Germany’s major parties continue to uphold what Germans call the Brandmauer—the political “firewall.”
The CDU, SPD, Greens, and the radical left all exclude any coalition with the party, at least for the time being.
This strategy has so far preserved Germany’s traditional institutional balances.
But as the AfD continues to grow, the issue becomes increasingly mathematical.
How can a country govern indefinitely against a party that attracts an ever-larger share of the electorate? How long can increasingly broad coalitions be maintained when their principal function sometimes becomes the exclusion of a common opponent?
These questions are not unique to Germany. They are now emerging across several European democracies.
When a Party Wins One-Third of the Electorate
There comes a point at which a political movement can no longer be regarded as marginal.
When a party consistently attracts close to one-third of voters, it no longer represents merely a protest movement. It becomes the political expression of a significant portion of the nation.
One may oppose its ideas. One may refuse to govern alongside it. One may seek to persuade its voters.
But it becomes increasingly difficult to portray it as a simple anomaly.
At a certain level of public support, the central issue is no longer the party itself. It becomes what that party’s success reveals about the country that supports it.
A Democratic Question More Than an Electoral One
Time will tell whether the AfD eventually enters government.
Yet its influence is already visible. The issues it highlights occupy an increasingly prominent place in public debate. Other parties adjust their rhetoric. Coalition-building becomes more complex. Political fault lines shift.
In other words, electoral reality produces consequences long before power is formally exercised.
The real question may therefore no longer be whether the AfD can govern. Rather, it is what its rise reveals about the evolution of German society.
For when a political movement consistently attracts such a large share of the population, the central issue is no longer its existence. It is the capacity of the political system to absorb the reality that movement reveals.
By analogy, readers may substitute another party in another country and ask whether they observe similar patterns—if not outright convergence.
When denial remains in conflict with reality for too long, it is rarely reality that ultimately yields. Political systems themselves are usually compelled to adapt.
Perhaps that is where the true German paradox lies today.
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