Guns in Iran vs Butter in Israel
As missiles fly all over the Middle East, we Israelis should be asking ourselves: are we prepared to risk our fighters, economy and children’s future to help free Iran’s citizens from tyranny once that country’s military targets are deemed eliminated?
The question is far from theoretical. Just last week the Prime Minister commented that he “cannot say for certain that the Iranian people will bring down the regime” – adding: “You can lead someone to water; you cannot make him drink.”
He said out loud what many of us have been thinking. Indeed, those addicted – like me – to social media since the war began on February 28 have surely noticed the abundance of videos featuring jubilant Iranians shouting anti-regime slogans from the safety of balconies.
Often these clips are celebrated as proof that the people are about to rise up. I understand this sense of hope, especially as it comes against the background of the ultimate sacrifice made by thousands of victims killed by the Ayatollah regime in January.
Perhaps we’ll see the survivors of that massacre return to the streets in the near future. It’s totally comprehensible that the regime’s threat to mow them down, if they dare, has impacted on the ground for the time being.
But even if the Iranians are truly on the cusp of rebellion, we need to recognize that our own interests do not necessarily overlap with theirs.
Don’t get me wrong: I fully support our war to eliminate all of Tehran’s strategic and other military capabilities. While now an armchair commentator, I was involved in the Iran issue about half of my four-decade diplomatic career. So, I get it.
Nevertheless, I’m not asking the question I opened with here merely as an Israeli with a grasp of the issue. Rather, my query also stems from an increasing focus on “guns versus butter” – the social impact equation.
Every shekel we’re spending – an estimated 10 billion per week – to destroy Iran’s nuclear, missile and terror infrastructure is a shekel well spent. However, the money to cover war costs doesn’t come out of thin air; a three percent, across-the-board government budget cut is now being implemented for this purpose.
It’s worth noting the areas that top the list: 139 million shekels from the Health Ministry, 193 million shekels from the Education Ministry, and 90 million shekels from the Welfare Ministry. Those cuts could be further deepened following the Cabinet’s Saturday night approval of an additional emergency defense budget of 2.6 billion shekels.
Make no mistake about it: health, education and welfare lie at the core of our society’s essence. Israelis should think twice before sacrificing the investment in these areas.
My concern not only touches on the socio-economic, but also on military-related aspects (the two are often intertwined, especially in wartime). The IDF chief of staff heightened attention to this facet a few days ago when he called the war against Hezbollah “another main front.”
Guaranteeing security for Israel’s citizens is clearly of paramount importance. In fact, it is abundantly clear since the October 2023 Hamas invasion of Israel that we’ve had to move from an abstract hope for regional rapprochement to a more grounded defensive mindset.
Whether we like it or not, war will continue to be an integral part of our reality for the foreseeable future. It’s on us to bear the consequences, many with financial implications.
Current examples abound: the number of Israelis who’ve been evacuated from their homes due to attacks in this war already hovers around 3,000; a third of our citizens lack a regulation bomb shelter in proximity to their residence; frontline and mental healthcare issues continue to pose challenges; and the closure of most schools and daycare centers, now entering its third week, is negatively impacting parents’ ability to work – and hence the wartime economy’s performance as a whole.
All these developments require cash.
Like everyone else who believes in the superiority of democracy, I’d love to see the entire world free – including the Iranian people. But as a country of barely 10 million people with acute security and societal challenges, it’s far from self-evident that Israel has the luxury of making the sacrifice that all too many expect from us in this war.
