Have We Really Outgrown Our October 6th ‘Conception’?
The pre October 7th conception was that the status quo is sustainable. By this logic, Israel could empower Hamas and support its governance of Gaza, because as long as terrorists were in charge of Gaza, there would be no international pressure for a Palestinian state. And preventing a Palestinian state was a priority.
This conception also involved the corrollary of strengthening Hamas: weakening the Palestinian Authority, its main political rival. The PA works with Israeli security forces to prevent terror attacks against Israelis. But because the world sees the PA as a credible partner for a Two State Solution, an empowered PA was seen as the bigger threat.
After October 7th, the conception was broken. Israel rightfully saw Hamas as the enemy. It fought a war to prevent Hamas from having the capabilities to carry out another October 7th. In that, it has succeeded. According to previous Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, Israel has essentially defeated Hamas as a fighting force in Gaza.
But have we really outgrown our October 6th “conception”?
Even now, the Israeli government continues to empower Hamas and maintain it as the government in Gaza by refusing to appoint a new government to replace Hamas in Gaza, and by continuing to exclude and weaken the PA. Thus, for example, repeated day-after plans for Gaza have been rejected by Bibi because they include an empowered and reformed PA, as a step towards an eventual Two State Solution.
Additionally, when the PA works with Israeli security forces in the West Bank, and Israel tightens restrictions on West Bank Palestinians and almost ignores ongoing price tag attacks, it weakens the PA’s credibility among Palestinians and sends a negative message about cooperation with Israel. This also strengthens Hamas, by weakening their political rival and by weakening the concept of non-violent resistance in Palestinian society.
The Israeli government that helped keep Hamas in power before October 7th continues to do so today. But the world has changed since October 7th. In light of images of starving Palestinians – images produced in part by the government’s decision to withhold humanitarian aid for weeks at a time – Hamas’s continued governance of Gaza is no longer an obstacle to international pressure for a Palestinian state.
In many ways, October 7th acted as a piece of evidence for the left-wing thesis: The status quo is a growing security risk, and oppression of Palestinian aspirations for national self-determination heightens the likelihood of Palestinian terror attacks against Israelis.
Unfortunately, there will always be Palestinian extremists who want to kill us. But it is harder to convince people to fight for a cause that has already been won. It is much easier to convince them to fight for a revolution that has not yet come. This means that giving Palestinians a feeling that their rights for national sovereignty are recognized, alongside a good quality in life, decreases motivation for attacks. A peace process doesn’t mean that everything is safe overnight. There are still tensions and attacks in Northern Ireland. Because extremists don’t stop fighting. But Northern Ireland is a lot safer than it was before. The attacks are isolated instances instead of a way of life. It is a lot harder to convince people to engage in violence for the existence of an independent state of Ireland when an independent state of Ireland does, in fact, exist.
October 7th should have acted as a wake-up call for the existential importance of a Palestinian state to Israeli security. Instead, for many, it acted as the opposite, making a Two State Solution seem even further away. However, it behooves all of us to ask: Have we really outgrown our October 6th conception? How do we move beyond the conventional wisdom towards a new paradigm, one which understands that Palestinian self-determination and Israeli security are entwined?
Related Topics
